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Feb 22 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Putin said he’s recognizing two self-proclaimed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine and plans to send “peacekeeping forces” 🇷🇺

📈 Brent oil hit $97/bbl (7-year high) #OOTT
📈 Conflict or retaliatory Western sanctions could upend flows of commodities

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📈 WTI crude oil futures climbed more than 3% from Friday, after not closing Monday due to the US holiday, to $94 a barrel
📈 Gold touched an eight-month high
📈 Silver, platinum and palladium all gained

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russia is a major supplier of raw materials, so a potential conflict/sanctions could impact everything from oil and gas to aluminum and nickel 🇷🇺👇

This “could spawn a butterfly effect, sending commodity prices spiraling higher as supply woes multiply”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📈 Brent oil soars to $97.66 a barrel in early Asian trading on Tuesday. That's the highest since September 2014

$100 oil is just a hair away at this point

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Metals prices also rising as a conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory sanctions would potentially upend flows from Russia

📈 Aluminum surges to highest level in about 13 years
📈 Nickel jumps to highest since 2011
European natural gas surged (about a third of Europe's gas comes from Russia)

📈 Dutch gas futures, a European benchmark, jumped as much as 13% to 82 euros a megawatt-hour

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📈 Brent crude oil futures hit $99.3 a barrel, the highest level since 2014
📈 $100 oil is a smidge away
Meanwhile, surging commodity prices threaten to drive up inflation and upend the global economic recovery ⚠️

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 22
Germany halted the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline following President Putin’s decision to send troops to two self-proclaimed separatist republics
🇩🇪💥🇷🇺

📈 European gas prices rose after the move, and are currently up 8%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
BACKGROUND: The certification process of the pipeline, which links Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine, has been on hold since the end of last year as the operator tries to comply with European Union rules as requested by the German energy regulator
The decision to put it into limbo demonstrates Germany’s determination to shoulder the economic cost of holding Putin to account for his actions

Or, in other words, "it'll cost you" Image
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 21
An LNG supply deficit is expected to emerge in the mid-2020s as demand outstrips supply, according to Shell's annual outlook released today 🚢🚨

⚠️ LNG supply gap to start earlier than forecast last year (See 2022 report vs 2021)
💰 More investment needed to boost supply: Shell ImageImage
European and Asian natural gas prices surged to a record high last year due in part to a lack of supply Image
Global LNG demand will roughly double by 2040, Shell forecasts

📈 Global LNG demand is expected to cross 700 million tons a year by 2040, compared to 380 million tons in 2021
📈 Asia is slated to consume the majority of this growth

Check out the report: shell.com/energy-and-inn… Image
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 21
US President Biden and Russia's Putin agreed in principle to a proposal for a summit meeting from France's Macron
🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺🤝🇫🇷

🛢️ Brent oil reverses gains and is down ~1%
🥇 Spot gold fell after earlier hitting the highest intraday level since June

#OOTT

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Presidents Biden and Putin have “accepted the principle” of a summit on the condition that Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine

The substance would be prepped during a meeting by US Secretary of State Blinken and Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov Thursday

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Brent oil is back around $93/bbl

But that may not last long. Oil could be set for a “prolonged period” above $100 a barrel this year, with world demand poised to expand to a record, Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy told Bloomberg TV

bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 19
European power prices plummet as powerful storms are forecast to spur record wind generation 🌬 📉

🇩🇪 German power prices turn negative for some hours
🇬🇧 Rates fell in the UK, France, Spain & Italy

Power traders are facing a pretty volatile period

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The German day-ahead spot power price fell to 39.62 euros a megawatt-hour, the lowest since Dec. 30

Output from Germany’s wind and solar parks will surge about 8% above the demand for power at noon on Saturday
@ryanoferguson WindTok. Let’s make it happen
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 18
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed to hold talks with US Secretary of State Blinken next week
❓🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺❓

This alleviated some concerns about geopolitical risks to fuel supplies

📉 WTI crude oil falls below $90/bbl
📉 European natural gas falls 6%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Oil also slipped as investors weighed the possibility that Iran's nuclear deal may be revived 🛢️ #OOTT

An Iran deal could potentially pave the way for the removal of US sanctions on the nation’s crude exports, easing some of the bullish sentiment

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
LNG imports to Europe have remained buoyant this year, which has also helped pull down gas prices 🚢
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 18
Japan wants to sign a huge clean ammonia supply deal 🇯🇵

🚢 JERA, the nation's top power producer, just issued an RFP seeking to purchase up to 500,000 tons/year of clean ammonia from 2027 to the 2040s
🚢 This is essentially the biggest international auction ever for fuel ammonia
The goal is for JERA to replace ~20% of coal at a power plants with the ammonia in order to curb emissions

When ammonia is combusted, it doesn't produce CO2. However, producing ammonia today is still quite dirty. That's why JERA wants clean ammonia

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
While ammonia has historically been used as a fertilizer, it’s receiving attention as both the government and companies pledge carbon emission reduction targets and try to reduce emissions from fossil fuels

More details here via @shoko_oda

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 6 tweets

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