One thought about what Russia's exit from the Minsk agreements — aka recognition of DNR/LNR — tells us about what is to come. Thread 1/x
Minsk was a mechanism for Russia to cement its influence over Ukraine by returning the Donbas on its terms -- a constitution renegotiated with its proxies and an asymmetric confederal structure with hyper-empowered pro-Russian regions. 2/x
By recognizing the republics' "independence," Moscow has given up on ever getting that mechanism. But the Kremlin has certainly not given up on its objective of cementing its influence over Ukraine. 3/x
Therefore we can expect Russia to use other tools to enforce its influence over Ukraine... As it turns out, Putin has a tool in his hands right now in the form of nearly its entire combat-ready military that just happens to be arrayed around Ukraine. 4/x
In other words, the strategic rationale for launching a major offensive is greater than it was before today. The Kremlin just swallowed its other bargaining chip. END.
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