1/4
Unfortunately as less money enters Turkey and more money leaves, Turkey's current account deficit will contract. But if its current account deficit contracts, Turkey must either produce more, invest less, or consume less.
nytimes.com/2022/02/19/wor…
2/4
Internal imbalances, after all, must be consistent with external imbalances. Obviously producing more would be best, but in the near term that's pretty unlikely. Because investing less would make things worse in the long run, ultimately Turkey must cut consumption.
3/4
Unfortunately the only real way to cut consumption is to reduce the real wages of workers and the middle class. Even putting a substantial burden on the rich won't affect consumption by nearly enough.
4/4
No matter what Ankara says it will do, in other words, unless there is a substantial revival of tourism it is pointless to expect that things will not get worse for ordinary people.

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More from @michaelxpettis

Feb 23
1/4
This is interesting. According to a Beijing-based institute, it takes 6.9 years of per-capita GDP to raise a child in China, compared to 4.1 years in the US and 4.3 years in Japan. Of the countries studied, only South Korea is more expensive.
reuters.com/world/china/ch…
2/4
Perhaps not surprisingly, South Korea is also one of the few countries with a lower birth rate than China's. Correlation isn't causality, of course, but the study does suggest strongly why it will be so difficult to raise Chinese birth rates.
3/4
I'd add two points. First, China's number would be even higher if its GDP were adjusted to make it comparable to the GDPs of other economies which, unlike Chin's, operate largely under hard budget constraints.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 22
1/5
No big surprises here. Beijing plans to cut taxes and increase transfers to local governments while "calling for infrastructure investment to be frontloaded to help cushion the slowdown, which looks set to worsen in the first half of this year."

reuters.com/markets/rates-…
2/5
"At present" according to vice finance minister Xu Hongcai, "China's economy is facing new downward pressure, which requires the strength of fiscal policy to be appropriately front loaded."
3/5
Given weakness in domestic demand, which Beijing expects will only get worse, it would have been far more effective to increase direct and indirect transfers to households. Increased consumer spending would have encouraged more business investment and healthier growth.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 19
1/4
China's trade surplus is caused by distortions in its distribution of domestic income, with households retaining too low a share and local governments too high a share. No trade "tools" the US can yield will change that.
reuters.com/business/ustr-…
2/4
More importantly, US deficits are driven by the US role in absorbing excess global savings. Again, no trade "tools" can change that unless they were substantial and were imposed on all trade partners. Even matching China's effective manufacturing subsidies won't change that.
3/4
Trying to resolve trade imbalances as if trade and capital flows still operated as they did in the 19th or early 20th centuries hasn't worked in the past four decades. It won't work in the future either. We need a very different trade strategy.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
1/4
This is an interesting experiment that may benefit Zhejiang in the longer run by giving it a larger share of China's educated young workers, but as usual it is a supply-side measure rather than the demand-side support that it really needs.
reuters.com/markets/rates-…
2/4
I suspect that most young college grads that move to Zhejiang to take advantage of these loans are likely to build consumer-related small businesses, in which case they will be constrained, like the rest of the private-sector, by China's very low consumption share of GDP.
3/4
Zhejiang is supposed to be taking the lead within China in implementing policies to reduce income disparity, and this loan program is being promoted – as is nearly every recent policy in China – as somehow furthering "common prosperity", but if Beijing...
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
1/6
An examination of provincial growth plans for 2022 suggests that we are going to see a renewed surge in infrastructure spending, according to Caixin. This comes after a year in which local governments were able to cut back.
caixinglobal.com/2022-02-16/in-…
2/6
"Of the around 20 provincial-level regions that have announced growth targets for fixed-asset investment," Caixin says, "which includes government-driven infrastructure spending, almost all set targets higher than their GDP growth targets."
3/6
This isn't a surprise. Last year was the only year in which a surge in consumption, mainly a reversal of the sharp contraction the previous year, was likely to lead GDP growth, and this was reinforced by soaring exports and strong private-sector investment.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16
1/5
According to a former Chinese regulator, "Fed tightening is expected to reduce foreign capital inflows into China, shrinking the country's trade surplus and thus helping stabilise the yuan."
reuters.com/markets/curren…
2/5
I think he's partly right. The PBoC has been worried about excessive inflows through the trade and financial accounts, and a narrower spread US-China interest rate spread should partially relieve the pressure on the financial account (not, however, the trade account).
3/5
Already in January net foreign purchases of Chinese government bonds were RMB 70 billion, versus RMB 79 billion in December and RMB 80 billion yuan in November. Total foreign holdings of Chinese bonds last month added up to RMB 4.07 trillion.
Read 5 tweets

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