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Christo Grozev Profile picture
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Feb 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Russia now says it recognizes "LNR/DNR" in the full geographical areas or the Luhansk and Donetsk regions (parts of which were never usurped from Ukrainian control). This appears to be the easiest pretext for Russia to begin a military incursion beyond the fake republics.
Russian Senator Kalashnikov now walks back his statement about the borders of LNR and DNR, says "they are still to be determined". Read that as you will.
In case you missed it: Putin confirmed RU recognized the "republics" in their original boundaries... meaning they need to be expanded by more than half. But that's irrelevant, it's now clear he's just picking a fight so he can go to Kyiv and beyond.
A bold prediction: the pending *different* sanctions, including personal on all of Russia's elite, will achieve what hundreds of thousands of protesters could never achieve. The elite didn't sign up to pay the price.
But that's the fate of emperors, including wannabe ones.

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More from @christogrozev

Christo Grozev Profile picture
Feb 22
A key prosecution witness in the criminal case against @navalny yesterday turned against the prosecutor and said the case is trumped up and he was forced to testify against the politician"under pressure". On the second planned day of questioning, today, he didn't appear in court.
Another prosecution witness who was questioned yesterday - a former FBK associate who bow works for @RT_com - ranted at length about how much he hates @navalny and FBK - something that in any other court in the world would have led to his testimony being thrown out.
.@navalny now asked the court to find out what happened with the prosecution witness who spoke up about the pressure - as he yesterday complained he felt in danger.
Read 15 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Feb 21
Putin reads long-winded speech, apparently written ages ago, in which he explains Ukraine never really existed and it was artificially created at the detriment of Russia.
"Not only did we accept politely the new reality (that they will exist separately), but we even gave them so much money..."
TLDR; "Ungrateful, cheating bastards, those self-designated Ukrainians, who are in fact Russians"
Read 20 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Feb 15
The new criminal indictment against @navalny may well be the most shameless Kremlin forgery yet. The accusation is that he embezzled hundreds of million of Rubles from citizen who donated to his anti-corruption fund. However, now it turns out that only 4 people filed complaints.
But it's not the number, it's WHO filed complaints. An unemployed plumber apparently donated 1,020,000 rubles - not 1 m, but 1.02 m, mind you. That's three years' worth of plumber salary, and just 20 k over the required minimum for the highest degree of embezzlement charges.
(apparently, he decided to donate this very specific amount after watching the video on @bellingcat, @the_ins, @derspiegel and @CNN's investigation into @navalny's poisoning - a Freudian trace of breadcrumbs leading to the trigger for this new trumped-up case)
Read 6 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Dec 14, 2021
Tomorrow, the Berlin district court will announce its verdict in the Kleiner Tiergarten murder case. The prosecution wants a conviction for Vadim Krasikov for life as a state-ordered assassination. The defense pleads that it was manslaughter, and there's no state involvement.
Manslaughter is an interesting point of view. I imagine the argument is that Krasikov ran the victim over with his bicycle and the gun fell from his pocket fired into the victim accidentally, before ricocheting into the nearby river.
It's very unlikely the judge will deem Krasikov to be innocent (or that he's named "Sokolov" - a non-existent persona created for this assassination). But it will be interesting if he will place the blame on the Kremlin, as the prosecution seeks to prove.
Read 9 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Dec 7, 2021
My buddies at GRU are at it again. Very creative bait this time, I almost believed it.. Good that I GOGLED the domain first.
(so the phishing bait implies the FSB - who control the Donetsk-based MGB) - are trying to hack my account. If this is GRU, it would be GRU using FSB as bait which is ironic.. If it's FSB themselves, it's just onanic)
So the "from:" domain is parked at reg.ru. But the active click-through payload domain is this. Interesting, a .ru google look-alike domain, meaning most targets are meant to be within RU. We saw something similar in a phishing campaign about six months ago.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 17, 2021
Putin's spokesman applauds @Apple and @Google's deleting of @navalny-linked apps.
Can't wait for @apple and @google's reactions when the Kremlin bans *them* in Russia (because that's coming).
An example of globalization playing in the hands of authoritarianism. The Netflixes and Apples and Amazons become hostages to revenue streams from non-free markets and then the broken concept of "legal sovereignty" closes the circuit.
Read 6 tweets

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