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Elina Ribakova Profile picture
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Feb 22 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Strong symbolic value, limited practical implications.

Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval dw.com/en/ukraine-cri…
LNG supplies to Europe have been sharply up as transit via Ukriane is down to the historical lows.
Transit of gas via Ukriane is shapely down
Questions are about longer term implications of reducing reliance on Russian gas independently of what happens to NS2

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More from @elinaribakova

Elina Ribakova Profile picture
Feb 24
1/ Russia’s reserves are again at an all time high due to “fortress Russia strategy”. Where are the $630 bn in reserves of the @bank_of_russia? Using the data with a 6 month lag we know the following. Image
2/ Russia no longer holds @USTreasury US Treasuries, likely in preparation for possible sanctions. Image
3/ Russia has moved money away from the US$ and EUR favoring gold and Renminbi. Image
Read 4 tweets
Elina Ribakova Profile picture
Feb 24
1/ What are the sanctions that could be expected? The primary focus is on the financial sector. Access of the systemically important banks to the US$ and global payments messaging systems. Image
2/ With oil price already through 100 new today and EU dependency on gas, carve outs for energy are likely. Image
3/ How prepared is Russian authorities for such sanctions? As we know sovereign debt is a non-issue at the moment. However, if there are carve outs for energy, without access to global payments messaging and/or US$ how would Russia spend its oil money?
Read 5 tweets
Elina Ribakova Profile picture
Feb 23
1/ EU's dependency on Russia's gas is still significant.
Russia is the largest supplier of gas to Europe. w/@BHilgenstockIIF Image
2/ Even if LNG imports have increased sharply Image
3/ There is limited availability of additional LNG on the market. Global liquefication capacity is almost fully used up and LNG vessels are in very high demand. LNG is sold and acquired largely via long-term contracts.
Read 9 tweets
Elina Ribakova Profile picture
Feb 22
1/ Russia's sovereign debt (presumably new) is sanctioned. No more access to the US/EU markets. What does it mean?
Russia's government is in fiscal surplus, apart from the rollover of debt, Russia is "overfunding" borrowing when strictly speaking it does not need to. Image
2/ Foreign participation fell in Russian market due to sanctions concerns. Russian domestic banks stepped in to buy more of the additional issuance. Image
3/ Non-residents have been leaving the market since the beginning of hostilities. Image
Read 8 tweets
Elina Ribakova Profile picture
Feb 22
"The 1st tranche of US sanctions:
- Full blocking sanctions on VEB
- Sovereign debt is cut of the first western financing
- Sanctions on elites and family members"

The US ready to escalate further if Russia does.

Live whitehouse.gov/live/?utm_sour… via @WhiteHouse
VEB (Russia's development bank) and Promsvyaz Bank (military/defense bank)
Likely new OFZ debt is cut off from global markets
Read 4 tweets
Elina Ribakova Profile picture
Jun 10, 2020
1/ Ukraine secured another stop gap program,
imf.org/en/News/Articl…

it is good news (helps with fiscal and bop needs) and also

bad news (what happened to the structural-reform-heavy EFF agreed on in December 2019? imf.org/en/News/Articl…).
2/ The IMF program will help @NBUkraine to rebuild reserves and also finance fiscal deficit
3/ In anticipation of the program assets rallied on the back of the more friendly global backdrop and as prior actions on the bank law and watered-down land reform were passed.
Read 7 tweets

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