Thread by @KellerZoe

Putin wouldn't be invading if Trump were still in the White House. The enemies of the west see this period as a window of opportunity within which to undermine and erode the US leadership.
— Nile Gardiner
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/2…

President Trump was derided by his political opponents as an isolationist, soft on strongmen autocrats like Putin. The Left painted him as a populist who undermined US alliances while turning a blind eye to human rights abuses by dictator regimes.

Having met him several times and closely observed the foreign policy of his administration, I saw a very different picture. I witnessed first-hand a presidency deeply committed to strengthening the US leadership in the world and actually putting fear into US enemies.

Trump was the antithesis of the weak-kneed Biden. The humiliating debacle of Biden’s reckless Afghanistan withdrawal would not have happened under Trump, a leader highly respected by the US military, and not afraid to deploy the US firepower to deadly effect.

We saw this in both Syria and Iraq respectively, where Trump ordered US forces to hit back hard against Russian mercenaries, as well as the leadership of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

The Russians were strongly emboldened by the disastrous nature of Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal, and by the fact that they were no longer facing a far more aggressive and unpredictable Trump.

Putin has read Biden like an open book, predicting correctly that he would not threaten any kind of US military action, would be slow to arm the Ukrainians, and would spend a great deal of energy coordinating with the appeasement minded EU, with Germany-France at the helm.

Trump was far tougher on Russia. He fought an aggressive campaign against the hugely controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, implemented the toughest sanctions against Moscow since the end of the Cold War, and applied huge pressure on Germany to toughen its stance toward Russia.

At the same time, Trump made increasing defence spending among NATO allies a top foreign policy priority, resulting in nearly all NATO partners stepping up to the plate and pledging a significantly increased spending commitment.

NATO was in a far stronger position under Trump than it was under Obama. No coincidence that the Russian invasion of Crimea happened under Obama’s watch, and the reinvasion of Ukraine is happening right now under Biden. Both are weak-kneed foreign policy disasters.

The Russians know this, the Chinese too, and so does practically every US adversary from Tehran to Damascus to Kabul. The US enemies don't fear Biden and believe he doesn't have the stomach for the fight. In Trump they faced a President they deemed dangerous and hard to read.

This is why the next three years are so incredibly dangerous. The enemies of the west see this period as a window of opportunity within which to undermine and erode the US leadership before the possible return of a much more hardline Republican administration.

Putin is acting now because Biden is toothless, the Socialist led Germany is energy-dependent on Russia, Emmanuel Macron is busily dividing the NATO alliance with his delusional calls for a European Union Army, and the deeply split EU is unlikely to impose crippling sanctions.

Russia and China will take full advantage of this unprecedented situation, and could even open a war on two fronts if Beijing's Communist rulers move against Taiwan during the remainder of the Biden presidency.

Trump kept US foes on their toes, especially the Russians and Chinese. Biden is on his knees, driving a superpower in decline. The timing of Putin's invasion is no coincidence. It is a strategic calculation based on the fact the US is led today by a President without a spine.