Leaving Moscow as Russia marks "Defender of the Fatherland Day" with a heavy heart after days of intensive mtgs. Some Russians said I witnessed a historic moment (DNR/LNR recognition) but one devoid of euphoria, unlike 2014. Instead, I sensed disbelief & shrugging shoulders (1/8)
Among more liberal/pro-Western minded, the predominant feeling Monday night was bewilderment - with folks thinking until the last moment that "he's not gonna go there" - mixed with a deepening worry about the future trajectory of the country: domestic & its foreign policy. (2/8)
The more hawkish felt vindicated by the building of momentum up to Monday (coercive diplomacy needed as gamble toward rectifying past injustices) but were equally caught by surprise by Putin speech (tone & substance). And seem to lack clear sense of where all this will end. (3/8)
Trying to find explanations, many were hard-pressed. Some suggested that Putin calculated - as he indeed stated before - that Russia will be sanctioned, called "the bad guy", with its interests disregarded by the West, anyway.... So, "he might as well go for it?!" (4/8)
Amid a variety of views on what precisely will transpire next, there's consensus that we're far from the end. Either rapid escalation soon, or incremental "tightening the screws" on Ukraine - until, some say, he finally forces the West to "become serious" about talks... (5/8)
...regarding December security guarantee demands. If so, that could be dangerous misreading of how Western response is shaping up, in my view. (6/8)
And meanwhile, many Russians (unlike in 2014, Crimea) seem to ask: "What is all this for?"(or: кому это нужно?) (7/8)
I have seen scores on this platform characterize Monday's events as an inflection point in our relations with Moscow. True, but for many of us long-time Russia-watchers, it's been a rolling inflection point. And I believe the ball is still very much rolling. (8/8)
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