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Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
@SStapczynski
Feb 24, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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European natural gas prices surge 41% (!) after Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine 📈

⚠️ Supply disruption feared after the West vowed further sanctions
💸 Dutch TTF jumped to 125 euros/MWh (nearly $40/mmbtu), the highest level in 2 months

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Around a third of Russia’s gas to Europe typically flows via Ukraine, and analysts have said any escalation of the conflict may disrupt those flows.

“In the event of prolonged disruption, gas inventory couldn’t be rebuilt through the summer,” Woodmac's Filippenko said
Ukrainian state company Naftogaz says all the facilities of its gas transportation system are operating as usual so far and that natural gas is being supplied in the required amounts

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
European gas prices are at a two-month high, and well above normal for this time of year

Meanwhile...

🇩🇪 German power for March reached 260 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest since Jan. 7
🪨 European coal for next year gained as much as 13% to $145 a ton on ICE Futures Europe
🥇 Gold surged to its highest level in more than a year after Russia ordered troops into Ukraine, as bullion plays its traditional role as a harbor amid geopolitical upheaval
European natural gas prices extend rally 📈📈📈

Dutch TTF natural gas futures gained as much as 47%, the most since since at least 2005, in their fourth-straight daily advance

Trading at about $41/mmbtu right now

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
European natural gas price rally continues

Dutch TTF futures trading at 134 euros/mwh, or $44/mmbtu

(They’re still a tad below record high of ~187 euros)
European natural gas prices now trading at the equivalent of $46/mmbtu

That’s pretty high
As expected, Asian LNG prices surged amid Russia disruption fears

European gas prices surged on Thursday, which will boost global competition for a finite amount of spot LNG. Asian buyers will need to increase bids to attract LNG shipments from the Atlantic

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Oct 2
GAS TURBINE SHORTAGE RISKS NEW ENERGY CRUNCH 🚨⚡

Orders for turbines for natural gas power plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand

🧵 Thread on how we got here and what it means for power-hungry nations Image
The crux of the issue is that the gas turbine market is dominated by three companies -- Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy

Theyve been caught flat footed by an acceleration in orders over the last few years. And they aren’t able (or willing) to quickly boost output Image
So, what is a gas turbine?

Its a 500-ton machine that is just like the jet engine, but to produce electricity instead of flight

Natural gas is burned to spin blades at speeds higher than 3,000 rotations a minute to powers a connected generator Image
Read 20 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Jun 22
Has Iran ever closed the Strait of Hormuz?

Not so far

A full closure remains unlikely. It would wreck havoc on Iran's economy, while surging oil/gas prices could upset customers (China, US)

But here are some ways Iran could disrupt the oil trade🧵👇
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…Image
👉 Iran could harass vessels passing nearby, like ordering them into their waters or even holding tankers (they've done this in the past)

This could force ships to travel in convoys under protection of western navies

(Story from 2019)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
👉 Iran could increase jamming of GPS signals. It is already bad, and threatens to slow down journeys through the Strait

These comments from Shell's CEO last week:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
May 15
SOUTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR POWER RISE
🇰🇷☢

In Changwon, Korea, an 8-story tall forging press runs nonstop, shaping red-hot steel into critical industrial parts

Lately, it’s making one thing: nuclear reactors

🧵 on Korea’s huge effort to export nuclear tech
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
The US, France (once cornerstones of the nuclear industry) are struggling with delays and cost overruns

Russia and China dominate, but face security concerns in the west

That leaves an opportunity for South Korea, which has diligently been building its atomic industry Image
As much as $9 trillion of nuclear investment will be required in the next quarter century to triple nuclear capacity

According to a Bloomberg analysis of the more than 400 planned and proposed nuclear reactors, Korea is positioned to win business with as many as 43% of them Image
Read 19 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Jan 1
END OF AN ERA: Russia's oldest gas export route to Europe halted

For over five decades, Europe benefited from a steady flow of Russian gas via pipelines in Ukraine. That deal has now expired

While that won't trigger shortages in Europe, it does mark a historic shift

Thread🧵 Image
In the midst of the Cold War, the first large-scale pipeline to export Russian gas via Ukraine was completed in 1967

The USSR wanted to trade/profit with the capitalist West, while also exerting soft power. Meanwhile, the West needed fuel to feed their growing industries Image
The first deal between the USSR and a Western Europe nation was with Austria's OMV in June 1968

This makes sense, given Austria's ties with the USSR and its neutral position during the Cold War. But the 23-year deal to buy Russian gas was the first of several dominos to fall Image
Read 14 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Aug 30, 2024
How Japan ignored climate critics and built a global natural gas empire
🇯🇵❤️🚢

Every six hours, somewhere in the world, an LNG shipment controlled by a Japanese company leaves a port. However, these tankers are only the tip of the iceberg

A thread 🧵
bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-…
Image
Japan began importing LNG in 1969 (see attached thread about that)

Over the last 50+ years, the Japanese government and its companies have worked together to unlock new supplies from Brunei and Malaysia to Indonesia and Russia

How does Japan, a country with little resources of its own, spearhead a fossil fuel industry?

They agree to buy the gas. And a lot of it

Japan’s long-term purchase agreements underpinned many LNG export projects

The first LNG cargoes from Qatar to Australia went to Japan Image
Read 23 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Aug 17, 2024
Malaysia founded the oil & gas giant Petronas 50 years ago today, adding to a wave of countries nationalizing lucrative fuel supplies 🇲🇾 🛢️

Here is a short thread of about the creation of Petronas, one of the most important and influential Asian fossil fuel producers🧵
Shell discovered Malaysia’s first oil well in 1910

(Shell first commenced operations in Malaysia in 1891)

“The Grand Old Lady” produced for decades, and put Sarawak on the map Image
Over the next 50 years, Shell was busy

👉 They Built Malaysia’s first refinery in 1914

👉 Installed the first petrol pump in Kuala Lumpur in 1921

👉 And in the 1960s accelerated offshore exploration Image
Read 13 tweets

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