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Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
@SStapczynski
Feb 24, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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European natural gas prices surge 41% (!) after Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine 📈

⚠️ Supply disruption feared after the West vowed further sanctions
💸 Dutch TTF jumped to 125 euros/MWh (nearly $40/mmbtu), the highest level in 2 months

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Around a third of Russia’s gas to Europe typically flows via Ukraine, and analysts have said any escalation of the conflict may disrupt those flows.

“In the event of prolonged disruption, gas inventory couldn’t be rebuilt through the summer,” Woodmac's Filippenko said
Ukrainian state company Naftogaz says all the facilities of its gas transportation system are operating as usual so far and that natural gas is being supplied in the required amounts

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
European gas prices are at a two-month high, and well above normal for this time of year

Meanwhile...

🇩🇪 German power for March reached 260 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest since Jan. 7
🪨 European coal for next year gained as much as 13% to $145 a ton on ICE Futures Europe
🥇 Gold surged to its highest level in more than a year after Russia ordered troops into Ukraine, as bullion plays its traditional role as a harbor amid geopolitical upheaval
European natural gas prices extend rally 📈📈📈

Dutch TTF natural gas futures gained as much as 47%, the most since since at least 2005, in their fourth-straight daily advance

Trading at about $41/mmbtu right now

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
European natural gas price rally continues

Dutch TTF futures trading at 134 euros/mwh, or $44/mmbtu

(They’re still a tad below record high of ~187 euros)
European natural gas prices now trading at the equivalent of $46/mmbtu

That’s pretty high
As expected, Asian LNG prices surged amid Russia disruption fears

European gas prices surged on Thursday, which will boost global competition for a finite amount of spot LNG. Asian buyers will need to increase bids to attract LNG shipments from the Atlantic

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Jun 27
The dark horse of US LNG 🇺🇸🐴

A decade ago, an ex-banker & lawyer were driving across Texas in a rental car trying to raise money for an LNG export project

Today, they're the billionaire owners of Venture Global ensnared by politics and angry customers
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
For nearly half a century, the LNG industry was dominated by petrostates and Big Oil

The shale boom upended that, shifting the advantage to the US and opening the door to entrepreneurs, like Venture Global

These outsiders propelled the US to become the world's top LNG exporter Image
First on the scene was Charif Souki, a little-known name at the time who founded Cheniere, the top US LNG exporter. He was ousted in 2015

Souki then founded Tellurian but struggled to capture lightning in a bottle a 2nd time. Now he owes lenders millions
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 20 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
May 5
How US sanctions are strangling Putin’s ambitions to grow LNG exports
🇺🇸 🥊🇷🇺

Arctic LNG 2 has been ready to start exports for months

And yet it sits virtually idle, the first piece of Russia’s energy complex to be halted by US restrictions

A thread 🧵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Some background:

🚢 Russia has long sought to increase its share of the global LNG market, but the war and the subsequent sharp drop in pipeline gas Europe have reinforced the importance of these ambitions

Moscow wants to expand LNG output three-fold by 2030 Image
Enter Arctic LNG 2, a massive complex which would boost Russia’s LNG exports by 60%

The primary mission was to develop new LNG customers in East Asia by sending fuel across the Northern Sea Route, using enormous icebreaker vessels to traverse the frozen waters Image
Read 20 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 3
HOW LNG IS MAKING QATAR RICH 🇶🇦🚢

The Gulf nation of Qatar is setting itself up to control about a quarter of all liquefied natural gas production by the end of the decade -- and with it, a growing share of the world's wealth and influence

A thread 🧵

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Image
Qatar unveiled last week plans to boost LNG export capacity another 13% on top of previously announced projects, together lifting production from 77 million tons/year to 142 million tons by 2030

This will make the rich nation (with a population of just 2.7 million) much richer Image
So how did Qatar even get here?

Time for a (simplified) history lesson…

Fifty years ago, Qatar was largely seen as a fossil-fuel backwater compared with its Persian Gulf neighbors Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Image
Image
Read 47 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Jan 27
THE US LNG MIRACLE 🇺🇸🚢

This is the story of how the US became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in less than a decade, drastically rewriting global energy trade

Thread below 🧵👇 Image
The world's first overseas LNG shipment was exported from Louisiana to the UK on the Methane Pioneer over 60 years ago

The US pioneered the large-scale process to chill natural gas to -256F, transforming it into a liquid. Liquefying gas makes the fuel occupy 600-times less space Image
Phillips developed the first ever US LNG export plant in Alaska in the 1960s

The project was born from a sales agreement with Japan, which were eager to begin importing natural gas to help ease air pollution issues in Japan

More about Japan here 👇

Read 57 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Jan 11
A HISTORIC WAVE OF LNG PROJECTS BEGINS THIS YEAR
🚢🚢🚢

It took half a century for the energy industry to develop the first several hundred million tons of LNG export capacity

Now, the industry has the potential to do it again in six years

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Image
This enormous buildout of LNG export capacity from Qatar to the US will cement the role of natural gas in energy transition

Much of this new LNG supply will go to China, but even the EU has agreed to buy shipments past 2050, despite ambitious green goals Image
The US has more LNG export capacity planned than any nation 🇺🇸

Not all of this will be built, but the current slate of projects will cement the US as the world's top supplier of LNG (which is wild because the US only began exporting shale gas as LNG in 2016...) Image
Read 12 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Dec 14, 2023
HOW ENERGY TRADERS LEFT A COUNTRY IN THE COLD

Pakistan, one of the world’s poorest nations, thought it had secured natural gas to fuel its economy

Commodities firms had other ideas

Full story with @FaseehMangi 👇

bloomberg.com/features/2023-…
LNG traders began diverting shipments meant for Pakistan into the more lucrative spot market when price began to significantly rise

Canceled LNG shipments from 2021 helped prompt an energy crisis in Pakistan Image
There’s no suggestion that the traders acted illegally. Pakistan's suppliers, Gunvor & Eni, appear to have operated within the bounds of the contracts

Moreover, Pakistan’s woes are the result of more than a fuel shortage. Successive government mismanaged its economy for decades
Read 6 tweets

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