Thread by @Osinttechnical

(thread) So a basic summary of my (unprofessional) thoughts of the first six(ish) hours of the Russian ground assault.

1. This isn't the US in Iraq circa 91 or 03, Russia is using some cruise missiles and PGMs to hit targets but they are not conducting comprehensive strikes

2. The Ukrainian AF is probably ineffective as a fighting force at this point. Their ground attack aircraft were hit badly by early Russian strikes and they only have a limited number of fighters anyway.

3. Ukrainian AD is still somewhat functional and taking down aircraft.

4. The Russians could not kick off an offensive during the night time due to their limited sensor capabilities and a lack of nav equipment at the squad level. They had to wait until daylight to start moving in.

5. The Ukrainian ground forces aren't getting mauled immediately

6. They have been able to perform a fighting retreat at this point, but risk encirclement in Kharkiv

7. The Russians have a few main offensive routes at the moment. North from Gomel and the border area towards Kyiv, strength is unknown and info is limited.

From Belgorod into Kharkiv, this is where we have seen the most contact occur between RU forces and Ukrainian forces. There also seems to be a general offensive from the separatist-held areas in the east.

Finally the south, it was confirmed that Russian forces crossed into Ukraine from Crimea, but their strength is unknown. Probably made up mainly of VDV units.

There is also a massive amphib force sitting off the coast of Odessa, they haven't made a move yet.

As of right now, the Ukrainian forces are trading land for time in some places, and fortifying other locations. I think they want to force the Russians into more of an urban combat scenario to negate their massive armor advantage.

I'm going to amend my Crimea statement, I have seen a bit more, the Russians are moving in strength with armor into Kherson Oblast

This thread is a bit redundant at this point. In the last few hours the Russians have broken through in the south with highly mobile units, captured Gostomel next to Kyiv in an airborne raid, and, well they’re still bogged down in Kharkiv.