In the #ICOW #identity dataset, we have coded an ongoing claim between Russia and Ukraine since the mid-1990s, one of 143+ dyadic cases since 1946. Claims can occur for 1) irredentism, 2) independence, or 3) demands for domestic change (eg language/political rights. /1
The risks for militarization with fatalities is much higher for irredentist claims, occurring in half of all cases. This rate is higher even than territorial claims (around 28% MIDS with fatalities in 843 claims since 1816). High intangible salience increases conflict risks. /2
Our work (@drkristawiegand Hensel Owsiak) shows that dyads with multiple diplomatic issues have higher war risks. Militarization of one issue (eg Crimea) increases militarization of other issues (eg Sea of Azov). Leaders use one issue to justify escalation of another issue. /3
As @smsaideman argued, irredentism also has important domestic motivations. Russia’s inflation increased by over 8% last year. Our research also shows that leaders are more likely to initiate MIDs over highly salient issues when inflation is high. Especially autocrats. /4
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