Thread by @BaldingsWorld

Look at almost any event and if you play back the decisions or little events that led up to that, what we see as the "BIG EVENT" ultimately became almost inevitable by all the previous events or decisions that took place to cause the "BIG EVENT". Let's revisit why we are here 1/n

1. Disconnect between word and deeds. The reality is there is a vast difference between the two and enemies looking for any weakness to exploit know that the major democratic powers are little more than hashtag powers 2/n

2. Engagement needs to be shot between the eyes. Russia, China, Iran and others know engagement is a one way bet. Let people make some money because they will never do anything because they fear the consequences. What have universities really accomplished in Russia/China?

3. Global power still resides at the end of an AK-47 paid for by an Amex Black. Soft power and cyber are great, but they are overwhelmed by guns and money. Until you are willing to use both to further your aims, it's all B!@#$#!+ 4/n

4. Consistency matters. You want to send a real message about NS2? Blow it up. Seriously. Blow. It. Up. Until then everyone knows Germany and Russia will just wait six months. You want credibility? Be consistent other wise they know nothing matters

5. Allies are wildly over rated. Seriously what as the EU done other than launder Russian money? In the stare down US matters, Germany a just a little. Almost no one else. If the US wants allies, it needs to commit resources, act and use its resources to get action from allies

6. All the little actions matter. Events like Ukraine are a quadruple bypass. Everyday you didn't treat Russia and China like a very real threat was that double bacon cheese burger. Occasional cheat day is fine, every day cheat day creates real problems

7. Burn history down. Even now most people are stuck in a 2012 view of China or Russia where a little more engagement will change things so we can push a broad plan to relocate all supply chains. Do it now. Do it now. Do it now. Burn it all down

8. It will only get worse. We need to accept that, internalize, and act upon it. Deeds only no more hashtag campaigns.

9. Work with those who will join you but do not hamstring your ability by allowing them to slow you down. Germany can join us but if they do not want to leave them behind and act independently

10. Rregular shows of weakness matter. The rule of global diplomacy is simple: just like prison, knock somebody out the first day just to let everyone else know you mean business.

11. The post WWII institutional order is worthless at this point. Anyone pointing to them should be ignored. Burn it all down and start again.