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David Coletto 🇨🇦

@DavidColetto

May 5

As the world gets more precarious, politics is becoming more emotional. The 2025 Canadian election showed how even centre-left leaders can win by borrowing populist strategies—without giving in to fear or division. Here’s how Mark Carney did it:

By the time Mark Carney became Liberal leader, the party had already shifted toward a communitarian, nation-first tone - ie. changes to immigration policy. Trump presented the party with an opportunity.

A precarity mindset emerged and Carney sharpened it—offering a centre-left version of nationalism rooted in shared responsibility, resilience, and calm, competent leadership.

But Carney didn’t avoid emotional tactics. He used alarmist language and framed the election as a fight for Canada’s survival—mirroring the style of populists, while rejecting their divisive content. Nationalism without xenophobia. Urgency without authoritarianism.

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David Coletto 🇨🇦

@DavidColetto

Apr 24

🧵On our last survey, we asked people who had voted on the weekend why they voted that way - unprompted and unfilter - here's a summary of what they told us...

🔴Liberal Voters🔴

Among those who voted Liberal, the clearest themes are trust in leadership, fear of the alternative, and a desire for stability in uncertain times. Many supporters said they identify with Liberal values or feel the party best reflects their vision for Canada’s future.

Several respondents mentioned Mark Carney by name, referencing his competence and steady leadership style, particularly in contrast to Pierre Poilievre. Others were more strategic, expressing a desire to stop a Conservative win rather than deep enthusiasm for the Liberals themselves.

Still, a sense of global awareness, experience handling complex challenges, and a focus on progressive policies were mentioned frequently. Many voters signalled that, while not always inspired by the party, they trust it to navigate the current geopolitical and economic climate. Some noted Donald Trump’s return as a factor in choosing stability over disruption. This combination of affinity and aversion—towards Carney and against Poilievre—defined much of the Liberal support.

🔵Conservative Voters🔵

Advance voters who chose the Conservatives were overwhelmingly motivated by a desire for change. Many cited frustration with the current government, particularly on affordability, housing, and leadership. Words like “competence,” “change,” and “control” showed up repeatedly.

For these voters, the election is a referendum on Liberal performance, and Poilievre represents a needed course correction. Some praised his clarity and directness, while others noted support for specific Conservative policies—especially those aimed at economic growth, tax relief, and support for frontline workers.

Others framed their choice as one rooted in common sense and practicality. There was also a significant emotional undercurrent to these responses: anger, disappointment, and impatience with the status quo. While fewer voters mentioned Poilievre by name compared to Liberal references to Carney, when they did, it was often positively—emphasizing his strength, authenticity, and responsiveness to “ordinary Canadians.”

Overall, this group was less focused on national unity or international issues and more driven by domestic priorities and dissatisfaction with Liberal rule.

Read 6 tweets

David Coletto 🇨🇦

@DavidColetto

Feb 5

Merged our last 4 #onpoli surveys to look a bit deeper into the relationship between vote and other variables.

Surveys are from November to January and I have a total of 3,460 cases to work with.

The overall provincial vote intention was:

🔵PC 44%
🔴OLP 24%
🟠NDP 21%
🟢GPO 6%

Follow this 🧵for more data from @abacusdataca

Vote by Community Type:

Urban:

🔵PC 42%
🔴OLP 24%
🟠NDP 23%
🟢GPO 6%

Suburban:

🔵PC 45%
🔴OLP 25%
🟠NDP 18%
🟢GPO 7%

Rural:

🔵PC 46%
🔴OLP 19%
🟠NDP 22%
🟢GPO 7%

Vote by union membership

Private sector union:

🔵PC 47%
🔴OLP 23%
🟠NDP 17%
🟢GPO 8%

Public sector union:

🔵PC 34%
🔴OLP 29%
🟠NDP 29%
🟢GPO 6%

Read 8 tweets

David Coletto 🇨🇦

@DavidColetto

Feb 1

NEW: What do Americans think about Canada, tariffs, and a possible trade war? Our latest @gzero / @abacusdataca poll finds surprising insights on how our neighbors view the economic relationship. 🇺🇸🇨🇦 🧵⬇️

Canada’s Reputation:
Americans have a positive view of Canada—69% favourable vs. just 8% unfavourable. But when it comes to economic issues, goodwill doesn’t always translate into policy alignment.

Trade & Tariffs:
56% of Americans believe Canada has benefited more from free trade than their country.

But only a minority think Canada is a major source of fentanyl or illegal immigrants

These perceptions are fascinating and important to consider.

Read 5 tweets

David Coletto 🇨🇦

@DavidColetto

Jan 2

🧵Why have the Conservatives gained most and the Liberals lost most among economically progressive/ culturally conservative voters according to the @abacusdataca voter segmentation?

Conservatives have gained momentum among Economic Progressives & Cultural Conservatives because these voters prioritize affordability and social stability.

They support government intervention in healthcare, education, or income support, but feel uneasy about rapid cultural shifts.

Trudeau’s Liberals, in their view, either overreached on social issues and under-delivered on tangible economic relief - it's a perfect storm caused by inflationitis.

Poilievre’s Conservatives tapped into frustrations about rising living costs, rising crime, and the impact of immigration.

By promising lower taxes, supporting traditional values, and critiquing bureaucratic “gatekeepers,” Conservatives appear more in tune with these voters’ desire for strong public programs and cautious cultural evolution, driving a shift in support.

Read 5 tweets

David Coletto 🇨🇦

@DavidColetto

Dec 13, 2023

Working on some new #cdnpoli poll analysis that I'm really excited about.

Back in April, I asked Canadians what they thought a Poilievre government would do if elected and what it should do.

I reasked the exact same questions on our most recent @abacusdataca survey...🧵

The results are fascinating.

First, perceptions about what a Poilievre government would or wouldn't do haven't changed much EXCEPT for:

Eliminating the carbon tax (+14)
Making housing more affordable (+9)
Cutting taxes (+6)
Taking climate change seriously (+5)

The fact that axing the carbon tax and housing have most so much is a testiment to the relentless discipline the Conservatives and Poilievre have displayed on those two issues.

Read 12 tweets

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