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David Coletto Profile picture
@DavidColetto
Feb 24, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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The latest @abacusdataca poll comes about 2 weeks after our previous one. Here's what we found:

1. LPC and CPC are deadlocked at 31%. NDP at 20%

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
2. 3-way race in BC, LPC slightly ahead in ON, and BQ ahead by 8 in Quebec. CPC is well ahead in the Prairies.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
3. Mood of the country has stabilized but is still lower than at any point since Spring 2021. All this was done before today's events in Ukraine.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
4. The federal government's approval rating is largely unchanged from earlier this month. 39% approve vs. 46% disapprove but the disapproval number is still at more than 12 month high.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… ImageImage
5. Clear majority support invoking the Emergencies Act - 57% vs. 30%.

Support by party voters:
LPC 79%
CPC 40%
NDP 63%
BQ 59%

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
6. PM Trudeau's favourables steady but still higher than at any point since the pandemic started. Have to go back to the SNC Lavalin scandal to see his negatives this high.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
7. CPC Leader Candice Bergen has seen a change in her favorables. Negatives up 4, positives up 3. Convoy/occupation put her in the spotlight.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
8. NDP Leader Singh's positives continue to drop slowly. Under 40% for the first time since August 2021. Negatives up slightly over the past few weeks.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
All in all, the events have the past few weeks have hurt impressions of the government and PM but have also done little to improve the standing of the main opposition parties.

Accessible voter pools for LPC, NDP, and CPC are fairly consistent with what we found in November. Image
You can get all the details here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit…

Survey was done online with 5,200 Canadian adults from Feb 17 to 22, 2022.

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More from @DavidColetto

David Coletto Profile picture
Jan 2
🧵Why have the Conservatives gained most and the Liberals lost most among economically progressive/ culturally conservative voters according to the @abacusdataca voter segmentation? Image
Conservatives have gained momentum among Economic Progressives & Cultural Conservatives because these voters prioritize affordability and social stability.

They support government intervention in healthcare, education, or income support, but feel uneasy about rapid cultural shifts.
Trudeau’s Liberals, in their view, either overreached on social issues and under-delivered on tangible economic relief - it's a perfect storm caused by inflationitis.

Poilievre’s Conservatives tapped into frustrations about rising living costs, rising crime, and the impact of immigration.

By promising lower taxes, supporting traditional values, and critiquing bureaucratic “gatekeepers,” Conservatives appear more in tune with these voters’ desire for strong public programs and cautious cultural evolution, driving a shift in support.
Read 5 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
Dec 13, 2023
Working on some new #cdnpoli poll analysis that I'm really excited about.

Back in April, I asked Canadians what they thought a Poilievre government would do if elected and what it should do.

I reasked the exact same questions on our most recent @abacusdataca survey...🧵
The results are fascinating.

First, perceptions about what a Poilievre government would or wouldn't do haven't changed much EXCEPT for:

Eliminating the carbon tax (+14)
Making housing more affordable (+9)
Cutting taxes (+6)
Taking climate change seriously (+5) Image
The fact that axing the carbon tax and housing have most so much is a testiment to the relentless discipline the Conservatives and Poilievre have displayed on those two issues.
Read 12 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
Dec 13, 2023
What accounts for the shift in voter intentions in #cdnpoli from our latest survey?

A few data points to consider 🧵

🔵CPC 37% (-5)
🔴LPC 27% (+4)
🟠NDP 19% (-)

abacusdata.ca/conservative-l…
Image
First, some key metrics for the Liberals, the fed gov't and the PM haven't moved much from last month.

The shift is not about people warming up to the PM or Liberal gov't again.

Image
Image
Image
Second, we do see an uptick in negative sentiment towards @PierrePoilievre. 3-point increase in negatives and a corresponding 3-point decline in positives. Image
Read 9 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
Jul 5, 2023
Working through some new polling I did on immigration in Canada which I'm going to track every 6 months.

Survey was done last week with a representative sample of 1,500 Canadian adults online.

A few initial findings and thoughts:

#cdnpoli #immigration #publicopinion #canada
When told that Canada's immigration target is about 500,000, 6 in 10 feel it is too high, including 37% who say it is "way too high".
Views are pretty consistent across the country (except in BC). Age is somewhat of a factor - younger Canadians less likely to feel immigration target is too high.

Interestingly, even a majority of immigrants think the immigration target is too high.
Read 9 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
May 28, 2023
Final thoughts on our @abacusdataca polling for #ableg #abvotes #abpoli:

The NDP had to do something very difficult in this election. It had to convince a lot of Albertans to vote NDP for the first time in their lives. They had to get them to go against their identities and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Coming into this election, Danielle Smith was very much the focus of people’s attention. Her favourables were lower than Rachel Notley’s. Many past UCP voters were repelled by her, thought she was worse than Jason Kenney as Premier, and felt she was a risky prospect. It looked… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
In the end, the structural advantages of a united conservative electorate t in Alberta meant the UCP was always the favourites to win the election. The NDP needed to center the election around healthcare, convince voters they had economic credibility, and persuade individuals… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Read 9 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
🌞 Good Sunday morning, Canada! It's a beautiful day and I've got some data-driven reasons for you to feel optimistic about our great country! 🇨🇦
First up, let's talk about our incredible forests! Did you know that Canada is home to 9% of the world's forests? 🌳 That's 347 million hectares of carbon-capturing, oxygen-generating green goodness!
🌬️ Speaking of the environment, let's look at renewable energy. Canada is a world leader in hydroelectric power, generating 60% of our electricity from this clean source.💡 Our windy coasts are also fueling a boom in wind energy, which now accounts for 5% of our power.⚡️
Read 8 tweets

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