As the world gets more precarious, politics is becoming more emotional. The 2025 Canadian election showed how even centre-left leaders can win by borrowing populist strategies—without giving in to fear or division. Here’s how Mark Carney did it: By the time Mark Carney became Liberal leader, the party had already shifted toward a communitarian, nation-first tone - ie. changes to immigration policy. Trump presented the party with an opportunity.

A precarity mindset emerged and Carney sharpened it—offering a centre-left version of nationalism rooted in shared responsibility, resilience, and calm, competent leadership.

🧵On our last survey, we asked people who had voted on the weekend why they voted that way - unprompted and unfilter - here's a summary of what they told us... 🔴Liberal Voters🔴

Among those who voted Liberal, the clearest themes are trust in leadership, fear of the alternative, and a desire for stability in uncertain times. Many supporters said they identify with Liberal values or feel the party best reflects their vision for Canada’s future.

Several respondents mentioned Mark Carney by name, referencing his competence and steady leadership style, particularly in contrast to Pierre Poilievre. Others were more strategic, expressing a desire to stop a Conservative win rather than deep enthusiasm for the Liberals themselves.

Still, a sense of global awareness, experience handling complex challenges, and a focus on progressive policies were mentioned frequently. Many voters signalled that, while not always inspired by the party, they trust it to navigate the current geopolitical and economic climate. Some noted Donald Trump’s return as a factor in choosing stability over disruption. This combination of affinity and aversion—towards Carney and against Poilievre—defined much of the Liberal support.

Merged our last 4 #onpoli surveys to look a bit deeper into the relationship between vote and other variables.

Surveys are from November to January and I have a total of 3,460 cases to work with.

The overall provincial vote intention was:

🔵PC 44%
🔴OLP 24%
🟠NDP 21%
🟢GPO 6%

Follow this 🧵for more data from @abacusdataca Vote by Community Type:

Urban:

🔵PC 42%
🔴OLP 24%
🟠NDP 23%
🟢GPO 6%

Suburban:

🔵PC 45%
🔴OLP 25%
🟠NDP 18%
🟢GPO 7%

Rural:

🔵PC 46%
🔴OLP 19%
🟠NDP 22%
🟢GPO 7%

NEW: What do Americans think about Canada, tariffs, and a possible trade war? Our latest @gzero / @abacusdataca poll finds surprising insights on how our neighbors view the economic relationship. 🇺🇸🇨🇦 🧵⬇️ Canada’s Reputation:
Americans have a positive view of Canada—69% favourable vs. just 8% unfavourable. But when it comes to economic issues, goodwill doesn’t always translate into policy alignment.

🧵Why have the Conservatives gained most and the Liberals lost most among economically progressive/ culturally conservative voters according to the @abacusdataca voter segmentation? Conservatives have gained momentum among Economic Progressives & Cultural Conservatives because these voters prioritize affordability and social stability.

They support government intervention in healthcare, education, or income support, but feel uneasy about rapid cultural shifts.

Working on some new #cdnpoli poll analysis that I'm really excited about.

Back in April, I asked Canadians what they thought a Poilievre government would do if elected and what it should do.

I reasked the exact same questions on our most recent @abacusdataca survey...🧵 The results are fascinating.

First, perceptions about what a Poilievre government would or wouldn't do haven't changed much EXCEPT for:

Eliminating the carbon tax (+14)
Making housing more affordable (+9)
Cutting taxes (+6)
Taking climate change seriously (+5)

What accounts for the shift in voter intentions in #cdnpoli from our latest survey?

A few data points to consider 🧵

🔵CPC 37% (-5)
🔴LPC 27% (+4)
🟠NDP 19% (-)

abacusdata.ca/conservative-l…
First, some key metrics for the Liberals, the fed gov't and the PM haven't moved much from last month.

The shift is not about people warming up to the PM or Liberal gov't again.

Working through some new polling I did on immigration in Canada which I'm going to track every 6 months.

Survey was done last week with a representative sample of 1,500 Canadian adults online.

A few initial findings and thoughts:

#cdnpoli #immigration #publicopinion #canada When told that Canada's immigration target is about 500,000, 6 in 10 feel it is too high, including 37% who say it is "way too high".

Final thoughts on our @abacusdataca polling for #ableg #abvotes #abpoli:

The NDP had to do something very difficult in this election. It had to convince a lot of Albertans to vote NDP for the first time in their lives. They had to get them to go against their identities and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Coming into this election, Danielle Smith was very much the focus of people’s attention. Her favourables were lower than Rachel Notley’s. Many past UCP voters were repelled by her, thought she was worse than Jason Kenney as Premier, and felt she was a risky prospect. It looked… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

🌞 Good Sunday morning, Canada! It's a beautiful day and I've got some data-driven reasons for you to feel optimistic about our great country! 🇨🇦 First up, let's talk about our incredible forests! Did you know that Canada is home to 9% of the world's forests? 🌳 That's 347 million hectares of carbon-capturing, oxygen-generating green goodness!

Just finished an @abacusdataca survey of 1,000 Albertans (Dec 6 to 10) as part of a national survey.

Will have a deep dive into the AB political environment out in the next few days, but the data I'm seeing lays out the path for both the UCP and NDP pretty clearly. #ableg As I see it, there are 4 key segments of voters to watch carefully.

✔️Loyal UCP - Voted UCP in '19, and would today.
✔️Loyal NDP - Voted NDP in '19 & would today.
✔️Reluctant UCP - Voted UCP '19 and aren't or are undecided now.
✔️Smaller parties - Voted AP, Lib, etc in 2019.

🧵Some new #cdnpoli data to tee up the #byelection in Mississauga tonight.

@abacusdataca survey conducted Dec 6 to 10, 2022 (n=2,500 with 1,000 in Alberta) Perceptions about the direction of the country have hit a new low.

30% of Canadians think Canada is headed in the right direction.

I've been thinking a lot about the occupation/protests in Ottawa and have been inspired by work being done by colleagues and others to understand the dynamics of public opinion and the impact on political behaviour.

#FreedomConvoy2022 #cdnpoli #society #mrx #polling #canada And I think our political future will depend upon having a really good understanding of the opinion landscape.

This is especially true for those who lead orgs in business, media, and government. As I'll show you, you don't see the world in the same way as everyone else.

The latest @abacusdataca poll comes about 2 weeks after our previous one. Here's what we found:

1. LPC and CPC are deadlocked at 31%. NDP at 20%

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… 2. 3-way race in BC, LPC slightly ahead in ON, and BQ ahead by 8 in Quebec. CPC is well ahead in the Prairies.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit…

Soon after the discovery of the remains of 215 children at the Kamloops residential school site, we conducted a national survey of 3,000 Canadians with @CRRF and @AFN_Updates.

The results indicate that this event might be a tipping point.

THREAD

crrf-fcrr.ca/en/news-a-even… Not only did almost all Canadians hear about it, but it had most people thinking about residential schools and how Indigenous people have been treated in Canada.

THREAD on our new polling on mask-wearing.

A third of Canadians always wear a mask when they enter a public place like a retail outlet and a quarter never do.

Full results: abacusdata.ca/masks-polling-… Men are significantly less likely to wear masks compared to women. Mask wearing is more common among the youngest and older adults, and resistance to wearing masks is highest among those in the 45-59 age group.

A few thoughts on the new @worldvisionca/@abacusdataca poll for #WorldRefugeeDay

Most Canadians have thought about how the pandemic is impacting people living in poor countries and it impacts on inequality.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r… 1/ 2/ Compared with January 2020, those extremely/very concerned about the spread of infectious diseases as a global issue as increased by 13-points to 68% overall. It is now the TOP global issue of concern for Canadians.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r…

Thread: Spending #VictoriaDay afternoon playing with some data. Looking at different ways to describe the electorate in Canada. Here's where I've landed so far using statistical clustering. Would appreciate feedback on the description/names. #cdnpoli #elxn43 #Election2019 Data is from a national survey of 2,500 Canadians, May 7 to 13, 2019. #cdnpoli