David Rothkopf Profile picture
Feb 24 6 tweets 1 min read
Unilateral sanctions don't work. So the secret is finding what every major ally is willing to go along with. That will never result in a maximalist list. But what it has resulted in, thanks to effective diplomacy & leadership, is a strong set of sanctions.
Putin will say these sanctions will have no effect. It is false bravado. Look at the hit the Russian markets and ruble took today. Putin, his oligarch buddies, and the country will feel the pressure from the steps announced this week.
I've already seen TV talking head critiques along the line of "what about this" or "what about that"--easy pot shots that don't take into consideration the challenges of moving forward a massive and complex alliance. The reality is this was a good response for now.
Military pressure via NATO will be the next essential step. Not going to war with Russia but making it clear that the cost of violating NATO member sovereignty is a cost Russia can't afford to bear. And then finding ways to aid Ukraine financially and militarily will be key.
All of these must be seen as long term strategies. Even if Russia quickly achieves its initial military goals, we must prepare for an extended period of insurgency and an extended period where Russia must be made to bear the price of this invasion...
...up to the moment Russia withdraws and the elected government of Ukraine is able to serve its people uninhibited and with a complete sense of security.

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More from @djrothkopf

Feb 26
I was reading up on Ukrainian history the other day. It's an extraordinary story that connects with every part of the world, to many of the world's peoples and religions. Ukraine, as much as Istanbul, is surely the crossroads of the world.
Its story is one not just of Slavs but of Vikings, Mongols, Khazars, Turks, Christians, Muslims & Jews. It is full of innovation, from the pre-historic domestication of horses to the flourishing of Kievan Rus. It has seen the horrific from brutal wars to the Holodomor.
Like any nation, it has seen evil and intolerance and also redemption and great creativity, been divided by tribalism and seized by empires. It also seemed quite remote to me until this week's events. But as I read, I realized that was a mistake.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 26
One reason this war for Ukraine resonates so clearly is that it is the rare conflict that is largely without ambiguity. Russia provoked an innocent neighbor without provocation. Their reasons had to do with the virtues of that neighbor country--notably its embrace of democracy.
The Russian invaders are brutal and violating international law. The Russian leader is a dangerous, kleptocratic war criminal without a single redeeming virtue. The people of Ukraine are fighting heroically against great odds to defend themselves.
The protestors against the war in Russia are heroically standing up to the despotic, corrupt regime that has stolen so much from the since Putin took power. The Western powers are acting in defense of peace and international law.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 25
While there's much to be careful of in sorting through Twitter (or Tik Tok or Facebook or other) feeds on the Ukraine war, there's no doubt that the availability of social media and so many witnesses with access to the Net and global audiences is transformative.
If you know who to follow and understand what you're seeing, the place to keep track of this conflict is no longer cable news. (Which is now more a source of analysis than breaking news as it was, for example, during the Gulf Wars.).
It is also the place where effective memes/viral stories can have important political consequences. The Sunflower Lady and the story of Snake Island are two powerful examples. So too is just the image of Zelenskyy staying in Kiev, defeating disinformation w/a Tweet.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 25
Common MAGA argument is “Putin didn’t invade Ukraine under Trump. Which means he saw Trump as strong.” Nonsense. Under Trump he didn’t have to invade. Trump was doing more to remove the NATO threat than an invasion could.
Trump sought to draw down the US troop presence in NATO by a lot. Trump had plans to pull out of NATO altogether in term two. Trump regularly attacked NATO allies and sowed dissension.
(See the relations between Trump’s ambassador to Germany and the Germans.) And recall Trump was actually impeached for withholding vital aid from Ukraine.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 25
Enjoyed appearing on @TheBeatWithAri. One of you folks asked me to recap what I named as Putin's 5 big miscalculations. Happy to.
1. He expected the reaction to the invasion would be roughly what it was to Georgia & Crimea. Clearly, the outrage is orders of magnitude worse.
2. He expected NATO to be divided and unable to act. It has been unified and he has actually materially strengthened it.
3. He expected the US to be divided and thus weak. We have not. Biden & team have been strong, effective, smart leaders.
4. He felt Ukraine would be a push-over. Not going to happen. The military has already shown it'll put up a fight. However, even if Russia takes Kiev & ousts the gov't, installing a puppet, there will be a major insurgency & keeping a lid on Ukraine will be v. costly & difficult.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
If Americans did not understand that Putin was an active threat to the international order that the U.S. and our allies have fought so hard to create during the past eight decades, then it is our obligation to ensure they do now.
Ukraine is only distant from the U.S. on a map. It is our neighbor in terms of the threat it is now facing, because that threat could easily and in an instant reach us. It is our neighbor because it is defending our interests and those of our most important alliance all alone.
It is our neighbor because the values it is protecting are our values. It is our neighbor because the enemy it is opposing seeks to weaken it so that he may weaken us and our alliance in the process. Ukrainians who are at risk and dying are therefore not just dying for Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets

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