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Feb 24 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
This week, Scholz has very much said & done right things. Today's speeches were strong. Positively surprising expectations on NS2 helped 🇩🇪 standing. Whatever the arguments on merit, holding off on SWIFT against US, UK, Central/Eastern Europe pressure is PR battle 🇩🇪 cannot win.
Scholz clearly on losing side of public argument of not going for SWIFT now. On substance would be curious to know how many of those calling passionately for SWIFT to be applied have looked into details and trade-off before making their passionate call.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
Daleep Singh & others in US government have clearly stated sanctions are structured to spare energy sector since it's there that 🇷🇺 has systemic importance for global economy. One concern about SWIFT that is shared in Berlin is that if you cut 🇷🇺 off it will disrupt gas payments.
Biden himself stated that other financial sanctions on access to dollar are more potent than SWIFT cut-off. That would contradict @n_roettgen claim that is our "sharpest sword". Plus there was no prior public commitment to use SWIFT as part of sanctions.
economist.com/the-economist-…
.@RegSprecher defends Berlin on SWIFT
* SWIFT taken off table due to technical implications last fall, suddenly appeared again w/o necessary preparations for alternative payment routes e.g. for energy
* for this reason postponed but it wasn't just 🇩🇪
This may be very honest explanation but not one that will fly in terms of winning over public opinion esp outside Germany. And it's alarming that 🇩🇪 didn't do contingency planning for alternative systems for energy payments just b/c SWIFT looked like having been taken off table.

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More from @thorstenbenner

Thorsten Benner Profile picture
Feb 24
Habeck: „Wir erleben eine tiefe Zäsur. Sie wird den Energiesektor, die deutsche Wirtschaft, auch die Wehrhaftigkeit der Bundeswehr, das transatlantische Verhältnis noch einmal völlig neu ausrichten“.
Habeck bringt es auf den Punkt. Zäsur für meisten in meiner Generation, die (wie ich) schöne, aber falsche Grundgewißheiten aus 1989 gezogen hat. Umfassende Investitionen in Wehrhaftigkeit nötig, nicht nur beim Militär. Habecks etwas altertümlicher Begriff paßt da sehr gut.
Wenn Habeck davon spricht, "transatlantische Beziehungen" neu auszurichten, kann es auch hier kein zurück zu alten Gewißheiten geben angesichts der 🇺🇸inneren Turbulenzen & Orientierung Indo-Pazifik.🇪🇺 wird sich in Lage versetzen müssen, großen Teil Abschreckung selbst zu leisten.
Read 5 tweets
Thorsten Benner Profile picture
Feb 23
Putins Rede vom Montag hat Grundannahmen vieler in letzten 30 Jahren über Frieden & Sicherheit in Europa erschüttert. Projekt Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie bietet Chance, diese Erschütterung in Neuausrichtung zu gießen. Dafür sollte man sich länger als zum Dezember Zeit lassen. Image
Es ist gut, daß Sicherheitsstrategie im Koalitionsvertrag in einem Absatz mit Dialog mit Bürgerinnen genannt wird. Für eine grundlegende Neuorientierung braucht es den Dialog mit Bürgerinnen, die jahrzehntelang etwa mit Diskussionen über Abschreckung nicht behelligt wurden.
Es braucht neben Einbindung Zivilgesellschaft/Wissenschaft & Spiegelung Perspektiven Ausland vor allem auch Einbindung deutscher Wirtschaft, weil sich für diese unter Bedingungen von Großmächte-/Systemrivalität Dinge weit fundamentaler ändern, als Diskussion bislang reflektiert.
Read 4 tweets
Thorsten Benner Profile picture
Feb 22
That Scholz stops NS2 as part of first wave of sanctions is smart public diplomacy move by 🇩🇪. Should give those pause who've incessantly implied Scholz not aligned with EU & US. They can now focus on whether stopping NS2 makes Putin tremble with fear as much as they've claimed.
Technical step Scholz uses to stop NS2 certification is directing @BMWK to withdraw supply security analysis submitted in October 2021 (something economy minister Habeck had intended anyway but for which until now there was no support from chancellory).
bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/P…
Given all the differences between parts of SPD & Greens on NS2 & Kremlin the degree of unity between Scholz, Baerbock & Habeck has been absolutely remarkable: communicating in sync publicly while preparing coordinated reaction behind the scenes for the day Kremlin attacks again.
Read 4 tweets
Thorsten Benner Profile picture
Jan 27
To comply with EU law Gazprom/NS2 found spin-off „Gas for Europe GmbH“.
Chairman of Supervisory Board is Dieter Haller, former 🇩🇪top diplomat.
Haller sees „international understanding“ as life’s calling. His wallet‘s calling is to put himself in service of authoritarians.
Haller has track record that qualifies him for Gazprom job. After retiring as 🇩🇪 ambassador to Saudi-Arabia in 2018 he signed on with WMP Eurocom, a PR and lobbying firm at the time with MBS as key client working on improving Saudi-Arabia‘s public image.

faz.net/aktuell/wirtsc…
Haller receives a luxurious pension from German government. If you claim “international understanding” to be your mission there are many ways to engage toward that goal without soiling reputation of your former employer to whom you swore an oath. Haller decided otherwise.
Read 4 tweets
Thorsten Benner Profile picture
Apr 16, 2021
Azerbaijan funds professorship on Azerbaijan at Berlin's @HumboldtUni.

Absurd that publicly funded German universities make themselves willing tools of reputation laundering of corrupt & repressive regimes. This has to stop, @RegBerlin @SteffenKrach.

zeit.de/2014/08/aserba…
Azerbaijan-Humboldt cooperation agreement has this this nugget: "Embassy can make suggestions for work of professorship".
For 75k EURO a year a university in a democracy with global reputation at stake sells out to kleptocratic regime. Stunningly shortsighted.
h/t @ilyas_saliba
Eva Maria Auch, holder of Azerbaijan funded @HumboldtUni chair, visited “park of trophies” propaganda exhibition & gave interview to state news agency. Certainly much to satisfaction of her chair’s funders.

azertag.az/de/xeber/Profe…

bild.de/politik/auslan… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Thorsten Benner Profile picture
Sep 29, 2020
Latest twist in Germany's neverending 5G saga: Handelsblatt reports government agreed on draft law that "does not formally ban Huawei from #5G but strongly restricts Huawei components, not just in core but also access network".
Details to follow. Bundestag to discuss draft law.
Handelsblatt reports that Huawei will not be formally excluded but will face high hurdles which amount to "quasi exclusion" in words of one observer. So what is reportedly in draft IT security law? Critical components from both 5G core & RAN face dual-track approval process. Image
First track is technical certification by @BSI_Bund (head is big Huawei fan, so that will likely not be a hurdle for high-risk vendors).
Second track will check on trustworthiness of suppliers. Here suppliers (e.g. Huawei) will provide "declaration of trustworthiness".
Read 12 tweets

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