After one of my @CNN appearances, one of the anchors asked me off-air why I had confidence in Ukraine's army to push back agains the illegal Russian military onslaught.
I used a bit of "battlefield math" to explain my rationale. 1/16
Their are two major factors most military folks consider to determine combat power: the force's resources and the force's will.
There are more elements under each of these categories that contribute to military capabilities. 2/
The force's RESOURCES: that's quantity (size of the force, Number of different capabilities...like air, artillery, # of soldiers), quality of equipment, extent and specificity of their training, their logistics & ability to resupply, their intelligence, etc. 3/
The force's WILL: soldiers' morale, a belief in the cause for which they fight, support they receive from both their fellow citizens & their government's leadership, their unit leaders...and especially, what they get from their comrades. Values are a big piece of this. 4/
There are historical examples where a force with superior WILL can defeat a force with superior RESOURCES.
Forces with an unshakable belief in what they are fighting for - with the right support - can overcome a force that seemingly has superior resources. 5/
The Russians currently have an advantage in resources. The quantity of their force provides a quality all its own, their equipment is relatively good (not great), their artillery and long range fires are devastating, and they have air superiority.
But... 6/
Russian training sucks (I say this having seen Russians train & seeing how they conduct "exercises"). Their log & intel is clumsy. Their soldiers are mostly 1-yr conscripts, not professionals, and they have a poor NCO Corps. Their officers - for the most part - are terrible. 7/
When I first served w Ukrainian soldiers (in 2004), they were also poorly led, trained & disciplined. But they have improved, significantly, because of revamped training, more battlefield experience & good leaders.
BTW, I wrote this piece about my experience w/them in 2014: 8/
Since then, Ukraine's Army has continued to evolve...and now, they have an extremely supportive population, good officer & NCO leadership, they are a professional force w/ a good reserve ready to support, & their government is also supportive. 10/
Add to this, Ukraine now has allies...all over the world. More support.
Putin has turned the Russian effort into one receiving scorn, because of the lies and crimes HE has committed. That will worsen as RU forces continue to commit battlefield atrocities, which they will. 11/
Ukraine had a tough first day. Tomorrow will be tougher. Combined RU conventional, unconventional, cyber, air, arty & special ops tools will be tough to address.
But Russia is still on the *offensive* so they have to act, and must continue to "move." They will wear down. 12/
Though Ukraine's initial defense wasn't great today, it will improve. Whether called an "insurgency" or a "guerilla war," UKR will wear down an enemy that already has low morale & an even lower support from their population back in mother RU (see protests). 13/
Don't discount the RU Army's increasingly unwillingness to fight for Putin. They will see their *cause* as being suspect....if they don't already. And they will experience more battlefield deaths than they anticipated, which will cause even more protests at home. 14/
It will likely be a long fight.
Putin will be increasingly portrayed as a loser.
He not a risk taker, he's a gambler. You can mitigate risk, but you can't overcome a losing gamble.
Putin will go the way of Stalin,Hitler, Ceausescu, Saddam. 15/
And Ukraine will be a stronger nation...but only if we continue to stand beside. 16/end
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Woke up to several texts from journalists asking my thoughts on "West Point dropping duty, honor, country from their motto?" and one wrote "does this mean the Academy has gone 'woke'?"
My first thought: "let me get a cup of coffee before addressing this craziness."
A 🧵 1/9
This week, graduates received a letter from LTG Steve Gilland -the Superintendent (the USMA college president)- of @WestPoint_USMA informing of changes in the MISSION STATEMENT (NOT the motto).
The letter specifically said the MOTTO "Duty, Honor, Country" has NOT changed. 2/
Now, I know LTG Gilland well. He's a great soldier, terrific leader, and a common-sense guy.
As any leader - general or business CEO - knows, you have to continuously assess and analyze your mission statement.
In fact, I teach this to MBA students in leadership classes. 3/
Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.
Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).
A 🧵 1/9
"Logistics determine the art of the possible."
Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.
Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).
A 🧵 1/9
Airdropped humanitarian aid is precise and speedy, but it's limited in it's capability and capacity for certain kinds and large amounts of supplies. It's also relatively expensive.After you deploy expensive parachutes and GPS devices into the area, it's hard to get them back! 3/
On 24 Feb 2022, I scribbled some thoughts about what I believed were Putin's strategic objectives in invading Ukraine (see chart).
In the 1st 18 months of the conflict, Ukraines' action, NATO collaboration & US support caused him to fail.
We're at an inflection point. A 🧵1/
Addressing each: 1. Zelenskyy is still strong 2. Ukraine's army is still fighting 3. Ukraine's population is resilient 4. Ru does not control the Black sea ports 5. The west - especially the US - has returned to being divided, and NATO may now take fewer risks. 2/
Putin now knows that Ukraine's continued capability will - for the short term - continue to require support from the west.
So he is pulling out all stops, w/ mobilizations (over 400k new (untrained) soldiers as "meat" for attacks), a ramped up industrial base, & oppression. 3/
GEN Zaluzhnyi is 51 y.o., extremely young for a Commander of any nation's Armed Forces. Most 4-star generals are in their 60's with much more experience.
Since Feb '22 he's been the tactical, opn'l & strategic leader of the toughest fight we've seen in the 21st century. 2/
Here's what I mean by "tactical, opn'l, strategic" commander:
1. He commands the 2000+ mile tactical front 2. He coordinates each battles into an operational campaign plan 3. He "plays" in the strategic arena with his nation's leaders & over 50 supporting nations. 3/
Deterrence defined: The action or actions used to discourage an event by means of instilling doubt or fear of the consequences over time.
Many say deterrence against Iran & its proxies is failing.
It's too early to tell. 1/8
DETERRENCE is one technique that MAY contribute to national security strategy.
Some define strategy as the use of different MEANS in specific WAYS to reach on END STATE or OBJECTIVE.
I agree with that definition...and it's sorta like deterrence. 2/
In National Security Strategy, MEANS equates to difference tools at the nation's disposal (diplomancy, information, economics, military). WAYS is the approach you use to make those tools effective (think maneuver with military, economic sanctions, condemning actions, etc). 3/