Balaji Profile picture
Feb 25, 2022 12 tweets 7 min read Read on X
The militarization of US tech may be inevitable. But before we jump into privatized cyberwar, let's think through possible consequences.

- Damage to millions of innocent Russians
- Targeted retaliatory cyberattack
- Unpredictable escalation into global cyber WW3

A thread. 🧵
First, collateral damage.

This proposal is essentially privatized cyberwar on millions of innocent Russians. In my view, better to do targeted positive acts (offering asylum, helping dissidents) or targeted negative acts than untargeted broad attacks.
Second, retaliatory cyberattacks may ensue.

Using US tech power against millions of Russians in this way isn’t like a typical deplatforming, where it's a consequence-free act by a huge company on a powerless individual.

This is Russia. They may hit back, in nasty ways.
Third, retaliation may also not stop at cyberwar.

We have not yet seen ideologically motivated attacks on tech CEOs, but Russia has signaled its willingness to track, poison, and murder their enemies. Even in the middle of London.

Again, if you do this, go in eyes open.
Fourth, talk to your team.

I don't want to quite say that throwing your firm into the global cyberwar is like picking up a rifle and standing a post.

But it does expose your team & customers to targeted lifelong retaliation by nasty people. They should take that risk knowingly.
Fifth, the US military can't protect you against cyberattack.

After Solarwinds & OPM, it's clear the US is a sitting duck for cyber. They can't protect themselves, so they can't protect you. Thus any entity that decides to engage in privatized cyberwar does so at their own risk.
Sixth, the US military won't defray your costs.

If you decide to enter a privatized cyberwar, the US government is not going to pay for any damages you, your employees, and customers may suffer as a result.

And this kind of war can get extremely expensive.
Seventh, spiraling may ensue.

At the beginning of WW1, people didn't think about how things could escalate unpredictably. And many US tech cos are themselves vulnerable to cutoffs from China, a Russian ally.

This game has more than one move, and the enemy also gets a say.
The age of total cyberwar

I've been apprehensive about this for some time. The involvement of global firms can make a conflict spiral. The potential for this has been clear, but perhaps we can come back from the precipice.

Or at least be aware of it.
Why do I see great potential for miscalculation?

Tech companies have grown accustomed to taking consequence-free actions against individuals. Arbitrary corporate deplatforming of folks across the political spectrum is common.

A state like Russia is a totally different beast.
No one thought WW1 would spiral as it did.

A great way to internationalize the conflict is for transnational tech companies to get involved in a global, privatized cyberwar. This may not play out in a feel-good way.

At a minimum, we should game out the possible consequences.
Broad attacks may be counterproductive.

Mass cyberwar like what is proposed below may actually make Russians rally around the regime, as no distinction is being made between civilian & combatant.

See eg:
icrc.org/en/doc/assets/…

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More from @balajis

Oct 14
The AI flippening. Image
Crypto has also decentralized to Asia. Image
About 55% of unicorns are still in the US, but the trendline there is also towards decentralization. Image
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There's dark talent around the world, from the Midwest to the Middle East. Backing this talent is the right thing to do morally and the smart thing to do economically.
To be clear: I'm not talking about sending more tech talent to the US. Instead, I'm talking about backing dark talent around the world.

That includes the many white kids from places like the Midwest who've been unfairly quota'd out of Harvard. But it also includes those outside America whose societies were ravaged by war, socialism, or communism...and who are just now starting to become productive again.

The goal is global equality of opportunity. The Internet actually now provides the basis for uniform rule-of-law via rule-of-code, starting with Bitcoin and smart contracts. We just need to execute from here.
Yes. That's what the blockchain is: everyone worldwide gets access to their ideal monetary policy, payments, smart contracts, and entity formation. Enforced by incorruptible & transparent computer-based judges. And opted into on a purely voluntary basis.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17
Prime Minister Modi comprehensively defeated the far left in India.

It can be done.
Naxalites drew their inspiration from Maoism and terrorized India for decades. Now these communists have formally surrendered.

britannica.com/topic/Naxalite x.com/thelegatein/st…Image
Fifteen years ago the far left still controlled almost one third of India.

The Modi government fixed the issue by using force against actual terrorists while addressing the underlying discontent with economic development. It worked.
indiatoday.in/amp/india-toda… x.com/iyervval/statu…Image
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Sep 8
Both America and China were invested in the illusion that China wasn't already the world's strongest economy.

Psychologically, it suited the incumbent to appear strong. So America downplayed China's numbers.

Strategically, it suited the disruptor to appear weak. So China also sandbagged its own numbers.

But the illusion is becoming harder to maintain.Image
In retrospect, all the China cope over the last decade or so was really just the stealth on the Chinese stealth bomber.

Hide your strength and bide your time was Deng's strategy. Amazingly, denying China's strength somehow also became America's strategy.

For example, all the cope on China's demographics somehow being uniquely bad...when they have 1.4B+ people that crush every international science competition with minimal drug addiction, crime, or fatherlessness...and when their demographic problems have obvious robotic solutions.

Or, for another example, how MAGA sought to mimic China's manufacturing buildout and industrial policy without deeply understanding China's strengths in this area, which is like competing with Google by setting up a website. Vague references to 1945 substituted for understanding the year 2025.

One consequence of the cope is that China knows far more about America's strengths than vice versa. Surprisingly few Americans interested in re-industrialization have ever set foot in Shenzhen. Those who have, like @Molson_Hart, understand what modern China actually is.

Anyway, what @DoggyDog1208 calls the "skull chart" is the same phenomenon @yishan and I commented on months ago. Once China truly enters a vertical, like electric cars or solar, their pace of ascent[1] is so rapid that incumbents often don't even have time to react.

Now apply this at country level. China has flipped America so quickly on so many axes[2], particularly military ones like hypersonics or military-adjacent ones like power, that it can no longer be contained.

A major contributing factor was the dollar illusion. All that money printing made America think it was richer than China. And China was happy to let America persist in the illusion. But an illusion it was. Yet another way in which Keynesianism becomes the epitaph of empire.

[1]: asiatimes.com/2025/07/thucyd…
[2]: x.com/balajis/status…Image
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Well, it's not the idea, it's the execution.

China can just sit back and let the world be its Xerox PARC. And then become a speedy second mover on anything that's working.

So you need innovations China genuinely can't copy.
One of them is Bitcoin.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 1
The dollar is losing reserve currency status. It’s down to 42% of global reserves, and gold is rapidly rising. Image
Digital gold is becoming the reserve currency of the individual.

Gold is returning as the reserve currency of the state.

Original post below.
Recall the Fed admitted that a “small number” of countries were switching to gold.

But that small number actually included Russia, India, and China: the RIC of BRICS.
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On many graphs of the physical world, China is in first place by a wide margin.

But if you look more closely, India is a distant but real runner up. Image
Image
The same pattern holds in nuclear.
China is #1 in reactors under construction.
But India is in second place. Image
Electricity generation is similar.

China’s recent increase is unparalleled in history. But India is increasing quickly, and will flip the EU soon. Image
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