Friends, remember the opening words of Ukraine’s national anthem: “Ukraine’s glory hasn’t perished, nor freedom, nor will.” And it never will. 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine
“Upon us, fellow kin, fate shall smile once more.
Our enemies will vanish, like dew in the morning sun,
And we too shall rule, brothers, in a free land of our own.”
“We’ll lay down our souls and bodies to attain our freedom,
And we’ll show that we, brothers, are of the Cossack line.”
THREAD: Here's why sanctioning the Central Bank of Russia could prove devastating - the true "nuclear" option in the West's financial arsenal. Russia currently holds about $640 billion in reserves. About 32% held in euros, 22% in gold, 16% in dollars, and 13% in Yuan. 1/
Most of that gold is held domestically and beyond the reach of sanctions. But about $300 billion in reserves are held abroad. Freezing those will prevent the Bank of Russia from using them for things like currency interventions or transfers to the Russian Treasury to spend. 2/
We're already seeing the ruble fall to its lowest levels ever as holders of rubles rush to exchange them for other currencies they think are safer stores of wealth. This is typical in crises - people trust dollars more than rubles to hold value. 3/ xe.com/currencycharts…
How long can Russia endure Western sanctions? A THREAD based on my research on the political economy of Russian grand strategy. Data from @WorldBank, @IMFNews and Russian Ministry of Finance. 1/
Lots of people are arguing that Russia's accumulated financial reserves will allow it to weather sanctions comfortably for a long time. This is not true, and history (and data) show us why. 2/
Here's a chart of Russia's combined sovereign wealth funds. This is where Moscow saves money when energy prices are high and when they need to sterilize currency to avoid inflation. And this is what they spend from during recessions and budget shortfalls when oil prices drop. 3/