As I see hurtful memes mocking Governor Walz's son fill my feed on this site, I am reminded of Matthew 25: 40: “The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’" 1/ And I think of Matthew 5: "Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth." 2/

The Crimean Bridge is the key to unlocking Ukraine's victory, but destroying it is harder than you might realize. @general_ben and I joined two West Point engineering profs to analyze the challenges Ukraine faces in disabling it permanently 🧵1/ foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putins… Why is the bridge so important to Russia? Opened in 2018 and built at a staggering cost of almost $4bln, the bridge is a physical manifestation of Putin's neo-imperial ambitions. It also is a political symbol of the "🇷🇺❤️🇺🇦" fraternal myth supporting Russia's occupation 2/

My article with @McFaul rebutting the realist argument that NATO expansion provoked Russia to invade Ukraine is now out (with updates) in the latest print issue of @JoDemocracy. Open access download until May 15. Our argument/evidence is in the 🧵👇 1/ muse.jhu.edu/article/852742 In short, Mearsheimer's argument is parsimonious and consistent with his offensive realist theory, but it's not supported by the evidence. Two biggest empirical problems are inconsistencies b/w theory and evidence, and cherry picking evidence. 2/

Honored to give a keynote address to over 500 representatives of Silicon Valley's top companies about the threat they face from Russia. The event was organized by @FBISanFrancisco as part of the @FBI InfraGard alliance with the private sector. Here's what I told them: 🧵 1/ For the last 20 years, Putin has pursued an ambitious set of five grand strategic objectives to reshape the international system and cement Russia's position within it. He has grown ever more aggressive in pursuit of these goals, but the objectives have remained constant. 2/

My contacts in international finance are closely watching precious metals markets and other commodities for evidence of Russian-Chinese collusion to evade sanctions. It basically amounts to a giant money laundering scheme. Here's how it would work [thread]: 1/ In 2017, Russia and China signed a currency-swap deal worth about $24.5 billion. Russia gets yuan, which it can use to buy Chinese goods. And China gets rubles from Russia that it can also spend. But Chinese banks could also use those rubles to help Russia evade sanctions. 2/

The "impossible trinity" (also known as the trilemma of international finance) tells us why Russia has no choice but to impose currency controls and restrict the cross-border flow of capital. Moscow is behaving exactly as monetary theory would predict. An epic IPE THREAD: 1/ According to the trilemma, national economic policy makers would like to achieve THREE goals. FIRST, maintain openness to international capital flows. This allows growth-enhancing investment to flow into the country and allows profitable outbound investments abroad. 2/

Pepsi's announcement to exit Russia may be of greater cultural significance than those of Coca-Cola and McDonalds. Pepsi had a presence in the USSR long before others, as told eloquently by my friend @Gfreidin in an article from 2000. Excerpts below. 1/ cnbc.com/2022/03/08/coc… "As one who has also tasted Pepsi while a captive of communism, some dozen years earlier, I can attest to the beverage’s ideologically corrosive effect. It was 1959, the year of innocence; the place was Moscow’s Sokolniki Park; the event was the US Industrial and Cultural Fair"/2

Twenty years ago a professor told me, "if you want a job in political science, don't study Russia. Nobody cares about Russia anymore - they're finished." I tell this story at the beginning of all my talks to make some points that I'd like to share with #academictwitter. 1/ First, it shows that political scientists aren't very good at predicting the future. If anyone of my discipline ever gets too far out on a limb with their crystal ball, smile politely and excuse yourself to the bar. Theories help make predictions, but they're often wrong. 2/

A plea from my friend, @pavel_syutkin in Russia [THREAD]: "I ask you to write in your accounts and give this information to the media. There are many people in Russia protesting against Putin’s war in Ukraine. Thousands of protesters have been arrested now." 1/ "Many anti-war blogs are being deleted on the command of the Russian authorities. We really want to attract your attention: there are millions of people against Putin's war. We're not waiting: we are in the streets with anti-war slogans." 2/

Take a look at the votes from the @UN today condemning Russia’s war. Belarus is the only post-Soviet state to stand unashamed with Russia. All others voted for condemnation, abstained, or didn’t show up. How’s that whole “sphere of influence” project working out for you, Vlad? For condemnation: Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine.

Important article on mass and elite public opinion in Russia and how both groups are likely to react to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Written by my @WestPointSOSH colleague Dr. Thom Sherlock for @TheNatlInterest. Important takeaways in THREAD below 1/ nationalinterest.org/feature/blowba… 2020 survey asked what they would prefer Russia to be: a modern, prosperous country even if it were not among the most powerful of states, or a leading power that was respected and feared by the world. By a ratio of 86:11, the siloviki wanted Russia to be feared and respected. /2

Want to show solidarity with Ukraine by tagging tweets with “Слава Україні!” (Glory to Ukraine) without having to copy/paste every time? It’s easy to set up an auto text replace on iPhone. Here’s how. 🇺🇦 1/ You can copy the Ukrainian phrase from Wikipedia, or you can just copy it here: Слава Україні! 2/ en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glory_to_…

BREAKING: Biden administration announces full blocking sanctions against Russia's sovereign wealth fund. Here's why that could seriously undermine Putin's ability to fund his war in Ukraine: THREAD 1/ home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel… Yesterday I wrote about how sanctions on Russia's central bank would deny Moscow access to its foreign reserves held abroad and cripple its ability to intervene to prop up the ruble. But Russia's "National Wealth Fund" is a different pot of money. /2

https://twitter.com/RTPerson3/status/1497731514779553794

THREAD: Here's why sanctioning the Central Bank of Russia could prove devastating - the true "nuclear" option in the West's financial arsenal. Russia currently holds about $640 billion in reserves. About 32% held in euros, 22% in gold, 16% in dollars, and 13% in Yuan. 1/

https://twitter.com/RTPerson3/status/1497250069845876774

Most of that gold is held domestically and beyond the reach of sanctions. But about $300 billion in reserves are held abroad. Freezing those will prevent the Bank of Russia from using them for things like currency interventions or transfers to the Russian Treasury to spend. 2/

How long can Russia endure Western sanctions? A THREAD based on my research on the political economy of Russian grand strategy. Data from @WorldBank, @IMFNews and Russian Ministry of Finance. 1/ Lots of people are arguing that Russia's accumulated financial reserves will allow it to weather sanctions comfortably for a long time. This is not true, and history (and data) show us why. 2/

Friends, remember the opening words of Ukraine’s national anthem: “Ukraine’s glory hasn’t perished, nor freedom, nor will.” And it never will. 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine “Upon us, fellow kin, fate shall smile once more.
Our enemies will vanish, like dew in the morning sun,
And we too shall rule, brothers, in a free land of our own.”