Thread by @Ayjchan

My stance on some controversial hypotheses being floated:

1. RaTG13 is not the parent of SARS-CoV-2.
2. Omicron most likely evolved naturally.
3. The SARS2 furin cleavage site did not come from a Moderna patent and
4. It did not come from the human ENaC protein.

Importantly, none of the above need to be true in order for the #OriginOfCovid to be lab-related or to have involved genetic engineering.

I don't understand why some people are making the issue so weird and complicated.

By their own grant documents and research publications, the scientists were engaged in the type of virus discovery and manipulation research that could've plausibly led to the emergence of SARS2.

No need for any Moderna, ENaC protein, RaTG13 shenanigans.

The scientists in this program had access to a diverse range of SARS-like viruses (+ sequences) spanning 8 countries in China & SE Asia, including Yunnan & Laos where the closest relatives to SARS2 have been found.

They did not have to magic SARS2 from RaTG13 or ENaC.

This is comparable to the "cold-chaining" of the natural #OriginOfCovid hypothesis. A perfectly plausibly wildlife market origin hypothesis gets unnecessarily convoluted to involve frozen packaging such that it becomes ludicrously implausible.

A mini-thread on why I think the ENaC hypothesis is not well supported by logic.

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1494483761131663363

Other scientists have already carefully explained why the SARS2 FCS sequence match to a Moderna patent (non-virus related btw) is not that unexpected so I will not get into it here again.

To reply to the questions in this thread, I'd been saying that (1) RaTG13 could not be the parent of SARS2 since I noticed that it was starting to be used as a straw man to attack the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis.

This is not a sudden revelation.

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1427746937936171014

Why do I think (2) omicron most likely emerged naturally? I commented on this in December when the lab #OriginOfOmicron hypothesis started to gain momentum.

Also not a sudden revelation.

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1467628548273881111

(3) On the Moderna hypothesis, the current sequence match between the SARS2 FCS and a cancer gene in a Moderna patent is comparable to someone saying that they heard a satanic verse in a popular rock song when you play it in reverse.

https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1496666414819647492

(4) It's plausible that a scientist with the SARS2 sequence (no FCS yet) might've screened human proteins for human cleavage sites to insert into SARS2.

However, I can't bring myself to believe that scientists at UNC had SARS2 sequences & didn't tell us throughout the pandemic.

I know some scientists have not acted with integrity during this pandemic, and some tried to shut down lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis. I know it's shocking & abhorrent some didn't tell us about their plan with Wuhan scientists to insert cleavage sites into novel SARS-like viruses.

But in the specific ENaC hypothesis that is making its rounds, the implication is that there are US scientists who know directly of the ideation of inserting an RRA sequence upstream of a conserved matching sequence between SARS2-like viruses and ENaC.

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1494485107880734741

It would be beyond the pale if US scientists had received SARS2-like sequences, suggested the insertion of the furin cleavage site, and then neglected to tell the government or scientific community - to inform Covid response - despite the novel outbreak blooming into a pandemic.

It's not similar to the situation their Chinese counterparts in China are facing, where they and their loved ones could be disappeared, where there is literally a gag order on scientists and CDC offices not to share info about the #OriginOfCovid or the early days of the outbreak.

If the ENaC hypothesis that implicates US scientists turns out to be true, and that they have been sitting on direct evidence of a lab #OriginOfCovid for 2+ years...

It would be just too shocking.

Let's look at the Defuse proposal wording again. The scientists wrote if they see mismatches in cleavage sites found in SARS-like virus spikes, then they will introduce human-specific cleavage sites.

Based on this, it is plausible someone with a SARS2 spike sequence, maybe one with a not fully functional cleavage site, scanned human proteins to find cleavage sites that are known to work well in human.

This requires the scientist to have knowledge of the SARS2 sequence first.

I should correct my original tweet to clarify that I don't think someone without the SARS2(-like) sequence would've suggested the ENaC cleavage site insertion.

If the hypothesis is that US ENaC specialists suggested it, then it must be that they had SARS2-like sequences.

Again, I know there are bad people who are scientists and I know some of them have not acted very honorably during this pandemic, but at this moment, it's too much for me to believe that top scientists in the US would be sitting on direct evidence of a lab #OriginOfCovid

Between a straightforward hypothesis that the FCS was inserted in SARS2 by scientists who had SARS2, vs a more complicated hypothesis that SARS2 sequences had been shared with US scientists, who suggested ENaC, then immorally kept quiet during the pandemic... I pick the former.

To wrap this up, you can say I'm naive, but there's a difference to me that US scientists are covering up indirect evidence that could suggest a lab #OriginOfCovid (this is known) vs covering up direct evidence that they are responsible for the virus' creation (this is unknown).

Based on simply a small match between the SARS2 FCS and human ENaC protein, I'm not yet willing to make the leap to believe the worst of people.

However, I fully support efforts to FOIA emails from EcoHealth and other WIV collaborators on their cleavage site work.

If these FOIAs produce evidence that US scientists indeed possessed SARS2 sequences prior to the pandemic and had thereby suggested the insertion of the furin cleavage site based on ENaC, I will be among the first to condemn them.

During the course of pushing for an investigation of both natural & lab #OriginOfCovid other scientists have repeatedly reminded or admonished me to be more responsible about what I'm tweeting. To keep in mind the safety of other scientists.

My stance is not to assume the worst.