Thread by @davetroy

1/Westerners misunderstand Putin’s power and think he serves at the pleasure of rich people. That’s wrong. Russia is an oligarchy, not a plutocracy. It’s vital to understand the difference. Wealthy people have power because of their proximity to Putin. He *allows* them…

2/to possess wealth. In that sense, the wealth is *his* wealth. Any oligarch can be defenestrated at any time.

The West is more of a plutocracy — rule by the rich. Anyone can become rich and thus wield power in a plutocracy. That is not how Russia works.

3/Suggesting that Putin will piss off the oligarchs or that he “answers” to them is just backward. They may be annoyed with him or question his strategy, but they have no leverage over him. He has leverage over them and can eliminate their fortunes on a whim. They know this.

4/When the Russian state was privatized in the 1990s, whole industries were handed to trusted contacts to “run” with the understanding that the arrangement was conditional on fealty to Kremlin power. See this classic piece on what happened.

institutionalinvestor.com/article/b150np…

5/When Putin gained control he refined these relationships and created a system to protect not only his own power but his wealth, via his trusted network of oligarchs, where it is squirreled away. So yeah, we should hit the oligarchs hard with sanctions, make it hard for them…

6/to spend money, vacation, or send their kids to western schools. But that’s maybe not the point of highest leverage for Putin, as he doesn’t listen to them anyway as he has leverage over them.

The people who could do Putin in are military, civil service, and media.

7/If they turn on him his war apparatus ceases to function. And Putin may get the Qaddafi-style ending he fears so much — but at the hands of the Russian people who are angry for destroying their lives. But the people will need help. Targeting that middle tier, thousands…

8/in military, civil service, and media roles for sanctions could rapidly sour Putin’s fortunes.

And let’s be clear: there are only two ways out of this now.

1) escalation to total war,

2) removal of Putin.

There is no other “third way.” Why?

9/Because any other outcome would require accepting what he has done on some terms and somehow ending sanctions against Russia, him, or his network. That will, bluntly, never happen now. Forget about it.

So only some catharsis born of crescendo can recontextualize this

10/and provide a livable outcome for the Russian people. The terms of re-accepting him back into the international order are simply unacceptable. He has made an irreversible decision. Period.

We need to stop using last month’s thinking to address today’s massive conflict.

11/Putin’s days are now numbered, unless he subjugates the entire world. And he may try that too. But no, there is no going back to “before” and no “oligarch” is going to pressure him to fall in line. That’s not how this works and it never was.

12/Putin is displaying all the characteristics of a “strongman” (weak) dictator and is falling into every stereotype and trap. Read and follow my friend @ruthbenghiat to better understand the history. He will collapse, but may cause more damage first.

goodreads.com/en/book/show/5…