1/In light of the news that Biden has withdrawn from the presidential race, let's take a moment to consider what that means in terms of electoral mechanics and, crucially, winning the race.

To win, Dems need to maximize their own turnout while also minimizing R turnout... 2/In the modern American political environment, turnout is driven by fear that the other side will gain control. So to maximize Dem turnout, ramping up fears about Project 2025, women's rights, and authoritarianism is likely to be more effective than any efforts to shape...

1/The global IT outage caused by a failed Crowdstrike software update can apparently be fixed by booting Windows into Safe Mode and deleting a file. This means millions of Windows machines need to be booted and fixed by hand.

https://twitter.com/marcsettle/status/1814201336516202611

2/This could take days to accomplish and could be extremely costly. No information right now suggests this is a cyberattack. But if it was, it may be a supply chain attack where malicious code was injected into the source code without detection. Nothing to suggest that yet.

Notably, Lavrov did not endorse *Trump*, but Vance. This further reinforces the idea that Trump's utility is all but over, and he should watch his back after election, because Putin/Musk/Thiel are all backing Vance.

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1814005436410208505

Related: if there's not a full-blown counterintelligence investigation running on Vance, we have really dropped the ball. WTF, even.

1/It’s beyond clear from evidence that Trump would not have chosen Vance, and that Musk, Sacks, Carlson et al pushed Trump to select him. This suggests Trump and Vance are beholden to that network, and are also aligned with Putin’s interests. The only thing more terrifying than… 2/Trump and his capriciousness is this scenario, where he is not only beholden to Putin’s network, but also fully disposable.

He is a beaten, pathetic man, and knows that if he steps out of line, he’s never more than an inch away from being erased. And indeed, there will be…

1/This is a good time to remind folks that the KGB injected false narratives about the Kennedy assassination into American culture via “journalists” Genrikh Borovik and Joachim Joesten, which were amplified by Mark Lane et al. Those false stories went on to eat the brains of… 2/a generation, and haunt us today. Be very careful with any narratives regarding Crooks that aren’t fully backed up with facts. There is zero benefit to speculating about this, and you will never know that which can’t be known. Caution is strongly advised.

1/Modern American elections are based on fear of victory by the outgroup. The more extreme R’s become, the higher D turnout will be. The saner D’s are, the lower R turnout will tend to be. It’s science, Mr. White. Read this book to learn more.

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book… 2/And sure, keep doubling down on extremism, R’s…. You will take D turnout to unprecedented levels.

1/Project 2025 is very dangerous; it comes from the Heritage/Koch side, and represents the institutionalist, incrementalist plan for tearing apart the government and repealing rights. But it’s become clear that the Musk/Thiel faction is running Trump/Vance. 2/As Trump distances himself from P2025/Heritage (even as many of his people worked on it), it’s important to remember that Koch/Heritage made him take Pence — a decision he gravely regretted. He has no love for that faction, and besides…

1/Let me be crystal clear: if the only thing standing between JD Vance (who is Peter Thiel and Elon Musk's puppet) and the presidency is Donald Trump's body continuing to function, we will have a red hot, absolute emergency on our hands. 2/These are tyrants chomping at the bit who will do Putin's bidding. There is absolutely no reason to think they will not engineer Trump's elimination at a time and place of their choosing. Be forewarned.

1/Polls are showing that Biden has a high floor, as do all proposed replacements. All have a ceiling around 48-49%. There are two dates that matter: August 19-22 and November 5. "Black Swan" events could disrupt anyone's guesses about the future. Therefore there is no value... 2/in making preemptive disruptive moves between now and August 19. In Chicago, Biden/Harris and the Dems can make a case for their ticket and plans with the benefit of knowledge of all disruptive events between now and then. In the meantime, Biden's numbers hover near or above...

Leadership requires doing what’s right for the long haul, not what may seem to be popular at any one moment in time. When you hire someone to serve as a leader, it’s necessary to trust them to lead. Undercutting them is not only unhelpful, it’s counterproductive to your own self interests.

1/Why are R’s so hell-bent on consolidating power NOW? Because demographics are not on their side. If Dems can — and hear me out — maintain a modicum of self control for a few minutes, the future is very much in their favor. Two powerful trends, densification… 2/and aging out of Boomers will mean an increasingly urban, younger, and diverse America. I articulated the clear correlation between density and voting behavior back in 2012, and it’s held up in every election since. More on my work here.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

1/The Biden/Harris ticket represents the best chance for unwinding the disastrous capture of the Supreme Court — which will take a LONG TIME. How does 12 years of Dem presidency sound? It’s doable, in fact. 2/Biden/Harris elected in 2024. Perhaps Biden resigns in 2026. Harris assumes role. She runs in 2028 with a new VP. Then she or her VP can run in 2032, taking us through to 2037.

Think that’s impossible? It’s not. Dare to believe institutionalists can win — long term.

1/People *really* need to understand that big elections with high stakes like this are not high school personality contests, but complex sociological exercises that reflect in-group/out-group tensions and deep conflict over worldviews. 2/This is why the variation between proposed Dem candidates is negligible. Biden polls the same as Harris and basically anyone else. People recognize they are voting for a worldview, and the team that goes with it.

Everyone raising doubts about Biden personally, instead of reframing this as a contest between institutions vs. autocracy is inadvertently aiding and abetting Vladimir Putin’s goals.

Be careful how you use your voice and decide whether you want to be used in this way. Anyone willing to do this, regardless of how it may ultimately harm them, is the very definition of “useful idiot.” And you all should be called out for it.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_id…

1/This situation is classic playground baiting. Trump is trying to drag everyone into playing his dumb game. Don’t take the bait. This isn’t a contest between personality cults. It’s rule of law vs. autocracy. Act accordingly. 2/Political science: it is a FACT that Trump has a high floor and a low ceiling. His unfavorable ratings are high. No one is switching from voting Dem to voting for Trump.

When the rubber meets the road in November, it will be institutionalists vs. cultists that determine

1/Democrats need to unify behind the Biden ticket because it represents the best path to actually beat Trump. Everyone acknowledges he is a decent old guy facing old guy challenges. But if you believe in democratic institutions, and not personality cults, as Dems claim to… 2/then it’s time to recognize there is one path forward.

• The system is resilient. If Biden at some point can’t serve, the VP can.

• Any other candidate will elicit howls, absolute chaos, and most importantly, legal challenges.

1/The domestic implications of the immunity case are deeply worrisome. But it also has deep implications for America’s role in the world. Espionage and subversion are now legal — if the President does it.

Trump has already been charged with stealing sensitive nuclear secrets. 2/We don’t know who he giave them to. We know he has fealty to Putin, and we know what Putin’s ambitions are. Anything the President wants to do on behalf of Putin is now legal. Up to and including mobilizing (or not mobilizing) the military against America’s institutions …

Perhaps the most alarming fact in the reporting about the indictment of the Epoch Times CFO is that it operates as a nonprofit (!) under the IRS 501(c)(3) code which disallows partisan stances. That’s all Epoch Times is! @USTreasury this is hot nonsense.

cnbc.com/2024/06/03/mon… Y’all might want to review their nonprofit status in light of all of the criming and direct partisan stances. IJS.

1/It is looking increasingly likely that absent a major new math/cog-sci breakthrough, current general AI approaches will stall in the face of negative marginal ROI, resulting from poor performance, industry headwinds, and poor governance by industry players. 2/This suggests that NVIDIA may be at or near a peak; or that it may unwind very quickly when it does. Most of the investment in the sector is coming from people who don’t really understand the science in play here; many are merely trend-surfing.

1/It seems the space weapon that Russia launched is in the same orbit as USA 314, which appears to be a surveillance satellite attached to the National Reconnaissance Office. It's very likely Putin believes this satellite is providing targeting intelligence to Ukraine. 2/Russia has said that they consider US satellites that are being used to aid Ukraine as legitimate targets. It would not be shocking to see Russia try to disable USA 314. While there has been widespread discussion of Russia's ambition to launch a nuclear weapon into orbit...

1/Came across this little gem in Aldous Huxley's FBI file today. While Huxley was alarmed by "subliminal advertising," he was right to be alarmed at the power of influence and info warfare to subvert democracy more generally. 2/The second notable thing here was that this was a product of a joint venture between ABC and the Fund for the Republic, which was an arm of the Ford Foundation that for various reasons attracted a lot of KGB-aligned creatures.