Former UK Nat Security Adviser Sir Mark Lyall Grant told me after @BBCNewsnight he thought cultural sanctions would be highly effective in communicating directly to Russian people their isolation caused by Putin invasion.
Especially throwing Russia out of World Cup qualification
Glad to see our guest from last night the Ukrainian MP @kiraincongress is safe this morning after having to cut short @bbcNewsnight interview due to air raid sirens and Russian attacks on Kiev - she showed us the Kalashnikov she has received to defend Ukraine
“No matter how hard sanctions..will not stop Russians marching on Kyiv or Mariupol. But we can send Stingers, Javelins, vests. our moral duty.don't need only to watch the screens and see how these people are dying defending Europe”
“If Europe will just watch like we're doing now, we will not engage fully in supporting the Ukrainians. If Ukraine falls, believe me, the strategic situation of Europe and transatlantic alliance will be totally differently..”
• @Pabriks “because when we in Baltics & Poland, warned Western leaders about Georgia in 2008 we were right. In 2014 we warned about Ukraine & Crimea. We were right. When we warned Belarus would be invaded & swallows by Russia we were right. Please believe us today, & act now."
Former Swedish PM @carlbildt tells me that by far the biggest sanctions are the US dollar sanctions on Russias biggest bank Sberbank and that will be “more damaging” than kicking Russia out of Swift… @BBCNewsnight
judgements from Sir Mark and @carlbildt about what Putin trying to achieve - agree he wants a “puppet Govt” in Kyiv, but Sir Mark thinks he may be trying to split country in two but even 200k troops can’t occupy 44m strong country. Bildt thinks VVP might want whole Ukr
Lastly very interesting reflection from @carlbildt when I suggest the west missed multiple opportunities to stop Putin… he says Putin “changed” post 2012 Medvedev interlude… and became obsessed with history and being “on a delusional journey to recreate an imperial past”
And this is our opening montage from last night… @BBCNewsnight
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1 in 4 Scottish adults on anti-depressants doctor just told Amol on @BBCr4today re inactivity…
Can’t find directly comparable England stat … but NHS England business data says there were 8.6m patients prescribed antidepressants in 22/23 (up from 6.8m in 2015)… 19% of adults
Thanks followers - the doc did say 1 in 5, and the fact is here from NHS business data … 8.6m antidepressant prescriptions out of an adult population of 45 million… 5.6m women, 2.9m men. Up from 2015 6.8m prescriptions/ 43m population… (1 in 6)
these numbers seem astonishing.
By age
English children on prescribed antidepressants, including a handful of toddlers - big spike up is for teenage girls…
1. Leading African figures told me privately that Kagame’s clear frustration with the UK-Rwanda deal, communicated to me “it’s UK’s problem” & “have money back” also reflect eyebrows being raised in other African nations about general look for a man who likes to be seen as the modern leader of a confident Africa, and who may have clocked that it may be reversing his considerable investments in nation-branding (sponsoring PL footy teams) etc. Watch this space. Here’s my iPhone video…
2. Remember, there are two sides to this deal:
I got a note from a very connected commentator after my doorstep: “It's a really bad look for him. He knows that the whole point of this policy is to make the UK govt look tough on migrants, on the grounds that Rwanda is presumptively a terrible place to be sent to. It puts the Rwanda country brand back like 20 years. … the only thing people associate with the country is "the worst place the Brits can think to send people"….
Context here - some real buzz about Africa jumping value chains, not just producing minerals but the finished products the world needs and doing so within a massive new free trade area…
3. Heard an interesting theory from business leader Brits out here… the autumn election promise is a feint, and earlier (May?) will happen as a result of the “shock” of the ECHR (possibly?) quashing the Rwanda policy and fought on that basis, with an attempt to reenergise Brexit vibes… if that’s even half true… then worth noting that Ireland has just formally lodged its ECHR case against the UK on Troubles Legacy Act… oh… and coming up imminently on @BBCNews is my interview with the Taoiseach covering this topic…
Governor Bailey says the risk on inflation “remains on the upside” when talking to MPs… backdrop to the Autumn Statement push to declare a turning point - MPC member Catherine Mann also suggests rates should be higher, because of continuing price and wage pressures …
Mann: inflation forecast points to not hitting 2% inflation target until mid 2026
🚨
Bailey:
“Market is putting too much weight on current data releases” showing “inflation come down quite rapidly”… we are “concerned” about “potential persistence” of inflation as “we go through remainder of journey down to 2% and I think the market is underestimating this”…
extraordinary testimony from Dep Cabinet Sec Mcnamara, about “jovial tone” and “breezy confidence” of PM Johnson in face of Italian “overreacting” re first European Covid wave even there was “laughing at the Italians”…
at time Italian docs implored Brits to learn its lessons
There was definitely some lobby briefing at the time with some sneering at the Italians - which I recall being really rather revealing, because my medical family were recirculating accounts from Italian doctor friends repeatedly warning UK to take advantage of headstart eg below
German finance minister Lindner tells me:
“this a standing invitation for the UK if you want to intensify your trade relationship with EU - Call Us!”
Saying post Brexit trade barriers “new obstacles in daily business life” are not benefitting German business or the UK
Lindner: “in daily life of German corporates, there are new obstacles since Brexit, I don't think UK is benefiting from Brexit. And so I, I believe i’m convinced we need new steps to reduce the obstacles in the daily business life for people and corporates to have trade”
FULL STORY …
Exclusive interview with German finance minister @c_lindner including natural follow up on why not help avoid tariffs on electric cars this Jan, then, and re German economy, & whether gas supplies/ storage good for this winter here: bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Think that budget will probably go up… but gives a sense of perspective on the costs of HS2 phase 1… and it’ll probably open before hs2 even though 2027 probs won’t be met.
But also how was it funded?
30 year “FILP” state loans with 0.5%- 1% interest rates taken out in 2017
“Securing long-term, fixed- & low- rate financing using FILP, by taking advantage of low-interest rate environment at time of draw- down, enable us to mitigate management risk start construction work for section between Nagoya and Osaka”
(NB that’s nearly Lon-Glasgow in 67 mins!)