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Paul Poast Profile picture
@ProfPaulPoast
Feb 26, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
To help provide context and analysis of the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 War that is grounded in international relations scholarship, here is an updated 🧵of the threads I've written over the past few months (and years) offering perspective on the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 relationship and conflict.

[THREAD]
First, it's critical to understand that a war b/w Russia and Ukraine has been long in the making. Since the early 1990s, observers of the region recognized that Ukraine represented the key post-Cold War flashpoint in Europe
Second, some claim that "the West" exacerbated an already tense relationship (see above) by pushing NATO expansion after the Cold War. In particular, it's claimed that the USA promised the USSR that NATO would never expand. Is that true? Partially.
Third, even if you don't buy 🇷🇺's claims about a pledge, you could still say that @NATO pushed the limits of expansion (poking the bear?) when it admitted the Baltic states (🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹) in the early 2000s. How did that happen?
Fourth, important to remember that this war is really an escalation of a internal conflict (and proxy @NATO-Russia war) that has raged in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. Indeed, USA aid to Ukraine to help fight that war made Ukraine highly dependent on the USA
Fifth, recall that Trump leveraging Ukraine's dependency on USA aid is what lead to his first impeachment.
Sixth, now that invasion has begun, how will it unfold? Specifically, what are Russia's (read: Putin's) aims?
Finally, the current war solidifies a lesson I've long shared with my students (and have shared here on Twitter many times): Russia is THE central player in the major wars over the past 200+ years.
Addition 1: There are concerns that the war has gone from "a crisis with nuclear powers" to a "nuclear crisis". Here I lay out reasons to there are concerns nuclear weapons could be used

Addition 2: In this threaded response to @McFaul, I elaborate on why this situation is unprecedented

Addition 3: From sanctions, to macroeconomic disruptions, to war finance and supply, a 🧵 on the economics of the Ukraine-Russian War.

Addition 4: 🧵with my counter-argument to the "US/West is to blame for Russia’s invasion" claim.

I claim that an alternative IR theory -- offensive realism -- offers "a better" (not necessarily "best") explanation (& point to the irony in my claim).

Addition 5: 🧵 on the downsides and potential faults in the economic sanctions imposed by the international community
Addition 6: In this threaded response, I elaborate on why the sustainability of the sanctions (i.e. holding the coalition together) is my primary reason for questioning whether the sanctions will eventually prove effective.
Addition 7: Determining when this war becomes (or already is) a "World War" (or, at minimum, a war between major powers) requires defining "participation": is it only when a country's troops are involved in direct, sustained fighting?

Addition 8: 🇷🇺's war economy is leaving it vulnerable to becoming dependent on 🇨🇳, just as 🇬🇧's war economy during World War I made it dependent on 🇺🇸

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
Sep 7
Which of these two men is most responsible for World War II?

Short answer: not Churchill

Long answer: [THREAD]
Image
Image
To be clear, in this thread I am dealing with the onset of the war in Europe. The War in Asia was just as important and obviously connected to Europe. But that is for another thread. For now, I do highly recommend Paine's book "The Wars for Asia"

amazon.com/Wars-Asia-1911…
The historiography on WWII is massive. But in terms of responsibility for the war's origins, there are essentially two extreme views.

Call them the Mueller Thesis and the Taylor Thesis
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Aug 17
Solving the "Europe Problem" has vexed US foreign policy since the beginning.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote last week, a key trait of US "grand strategy" since the founding of the Republic was "Go West" either by expanding US territory west or seeking to maintain trade with China.

But the other key trait of US grand strategy has been to keep the European powers from standing in the way.
Read 14 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Aug 10
Since the founding of the republic, US foreign policy has been about one thing:

Go west (and don't let Europe get in the way).

[THREAD] Image
I'll write more about "don't let Europe get in the way" in another 🧵. This one will focus on the "Go west" part (which will also touch on the Europe part).
One could go so far as to argue that the Republic itself was founded because of a desire to go west. Specifically, the colonials were forbidden to go west of the 1763 Proclamation line. Image
Read 20 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 15
When you hear "Liberal International Order", just think "the G-7, for better and for worse"

[THREAD] Image
While some scholars and policy makers like to speak of the "Liberal International Order" as the collection of post-World War II international institutions....
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
...the phrase itself is much more recent in origins, largely a product of the mid-1990s. Image
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 8
Are the "opportunity costs" of arming Ukraine too high?

Short answer: no

Long answer: compared to what?

[THREAD]
For those not aware, I am asking this question because of a new International Affairs piece that makes the argument "yes, they are too high"

academic.oup.com/ia/advance-art…
Overall, their argument is that the resources going towards Ukraine would be better allocated to address other pressing global challenges.
Read 24 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 1
In international politics, population is destiny.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote in my latest for @WPReview, shifting patterns in population growth will inevitably influence international politics.
worldpoliticsreview.com/global-demogra…
This isn't a new idea. It's one found in classic works on change in world politics.

amazon.com/War-Change-Wor…
Read 14 tweets

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