Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Paul Poast Profile picture
@ProfPaulPoast
Feb 26, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
To help provide context and analysis of the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 War that is grounded in international relations scholarship, here is an updated 🧵of the threads I've written over the past few months (and years) offering perspective on the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 relationship and conflict.

[THREAD]
First, it's critical to understand that a war b/w Russia and Ukraine has been long in the making. Since the early 1990s, observers of the region recognized that Ukraine represented the key post-Cold War flashpoint in Europe
Second, some claim that "the West" exacerbated an already tense relationship (see above) by pushing NATO expansion after the Cold War. In particular, it's claimed that the USA promised the USSR that NATO would never expand. Is that true? Partially.
Third, even if you don't buy 🇷🇺's claims about a pledge, you could still say that @NATO pushed the limits of expansion (poking the bear?) when it admitted the Baltic states (🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹) in the early 2000s. How did that happen?
Fourth, important to remember that this war is really an escalation of a internal conflict (and proxy @NATO-Russia war) that has raged in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. Indeed, USA aid to Ukraine to help fight that war made Ukraine highly dependent on the USA
Fifth, recall that Trump leveraging Ukraine's dependency on USA aid is what lead to his first impeachment.
Sixth, now that invasion has begun, how will it unfold? Specifically, what are Russia's (read: Putin's) aims?
Finally, the current war solidifies a lesson I've long shared with my students (and have shared here on Twitter many times): Russia is THE central player in the major wars over the past 200+ years.
Addition 1: There are concerns that the war has gone from "a crisis with nuclear powers" to a "nuclear crisis". Here I lay out reasons to there are concerns nuclear weapons could be used

Addition 2: In this threaded response to @McFaul, I elaborate on why this situation is unprecedented

Addition 3: From sanctions, to macroeconomic disruptions, to war finance and supply, a 🧵 on the economics of the Ukraine-Russian War.

Addition 4: 🧵with my counter-argument to the "US/West is to blame for Russia’s invasion" claim.

I claim that an alternative IR theory -- offensive realism -- offers "a better" (not necessarily "best") explanation (& point to the irony in my claim).

Addition 5: 🧵 on the downsides and potential faults in the economic sanctions imposed by the international community
Addition 6: In this threaded response, I elaborate on why the sustainability of the sanctions (i.e. holding the coalition together) is my primary reason for questioning whether the sanctions will eventually prove effective.
Addition 7: Determining when this war becomes (or already is) a "World War" (or, at minimum, a war between major powers) requires defining "participation": is it only when a country's troops are involved in direct, sustained fighting?

Addition 8: 🇷🇺's war economy is leaving it vulnerable to becoming dependent on 🇨🇳, just as 🇬🇧's war economy during World War I made it dependent on 🇺🇸

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Paul Poast

Paul Poast Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
May 4
Does the United States have a responsibility to protect the civilians of Gaza?

[THREAD] Image
In my latest @WPReview column, I wrote of the downfall of "Responsibility to Protect" or R2P.

worldpoliticsreview.com/us-foreign-pol…
R2P is "the responsibility to protect its populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity". This means nations can't hide behind the barrier of "sovereignty" to stop interventions.

un.org/en/genocidepre…
Read 22 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 21
The House passed a defense supplement for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

Ukraine aid was the most controversial portion of the supplement and might cost Speaker Johnson his leadership position.

Why did he do it?

[THREAD] Image
As is being reported, Johnson stated “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall....This is not a game, this is not a joke.”
cnn.com/2024/04/21/pol…
While it's partly personal for Johnson, his remarks emphasize a larger point, one that I raised in a recent @WPReview column: cutting off US aid won't end the war. Instead, it would embolden Russia.
worldpoliticsreview.com/us-ukraine-aid…
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 20
Let's do this.

A close reading of Donald Trump's recent description of the Battle of Gettysburg.

TL, DR: there were no pirates.

[THREAD] Image
ICYMI, here is a clip of what Trump said about the Battle of Gettysburg at his recent Pennsylvania rally

Let's start at the beginning:

"The Union was saved by the immortal heroes at Gettysburg"
Read 30 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 14
Are we on the brink of a larger Middle East War?

The risk increased in the past day, but is still low.

[SHORT THREAD]
Many of the points raised in 👇 🧵 from October still apply: larger wars happen because states want to be drawn in.

Is that still the case?
This @goodauth piece from October made related points about the tools states -- specifically Iran and Israel -- can use to control escalation.

goodauthority.org/news/will-the-…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 13
"International law is fake law."

"The only real law is domestic law."

Both statements are wrong. In some sense, the opposite might be true.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote recently in @WPReview, international law is flawed. But flawed shouldn't be confused with pointless.

worldpoliticsreview.com/war-gaza-inter…
I emphasized how international law is part of a broader diplomatic process where states try to convey their preferences over policy.

In other words, from signing a treaty to filing a ICJ dispute, international law provides information.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Read 20 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 6
To truly understand the current value of NATO, you need to think about a world without NATO.

Such "counterfactual thinking" lies at the heart of policy analysis...and IR scholarship.

[THREAD] Image
This 🧵 builds on my latest @WPReview piece. I argued that NATO is more valuable than ever to its members. But how do we actually know that?

worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-ukraine-r…
The key is to ask, "if NATO wasn't here, what would happen?"
Read 26 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(