Thread by @KSOSINT

In this thread I would like to give a concise and full explanation to proof that a SAM missile accidently hit a apartment building in Kyiv yesterday morning. aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/26…

Before images of the impact at the apartment came in, this video was circulating of a missile launch near the city. This launch seems similar to a launch of a S-300 Surface-to-air system. (Of note both Russia and Ukraine operates these systems)

A few others and I quickly geolocated this video to a neighborhood south of Kiev and near Sikorsky International Airport. This video also shows the missile trail arcing towards where the building was hit.

Soon after this I was able to find another video taken by a resident of Kyiv of the same missile launch. This video clearly shows an arc into the city.

I was able to locate the video to a location near by in the same neighborhood.

I was able to line up the sight lines of the two videos with buildings, chimneys, and other structures. The point where the view angles intersect is in a empty field just north of a highway interchange. The location is prefect for a SAM site.

Now looking at the impact of the building. A nearby security camera documented the impact of the missile into the building at around 08:12. The person who took the second video also stated that their video was also recorded around 08:12.

Both the video and time stamps prove that the missile in the videos is the missile that hit the apartment building. This rules out any long range Russian ballistic, air to air, or cruise missiles launched from the north of the city as being the culprit.

The previously mentioned launch site is most likely a Ukrainian SAM system stationed there to protect the nearby Sikorsky International Airport. There has been no reports of Russian troops near the airport and especially not of a Russian SAM site and all of its components there.

The second video of the launch also shows a very weird path for a normally operating SAM, for comparison in this video of a Russian S-300 , the missile does not continue in a ballistic arc. Instead after launch it diverts and tracks its target.

I think the possibility is that Ukraine launched a missile at a target over Kyiv, the missile for some reason malfunctioned or did not track a proper target, and continued on a ballistic arc until it hit an apartment building in the city.

Thank you to those at @projectowlosint for helping me investigate this

EDIT. I think this missile is a 9K37 Buk not a S-300 now. This does not change any of my assessments earlier, except the missile type) The launch looks a little more like this Buk launched Syria. (also of note a Russian Buk shot down MH17 in 2014)

Also of note Russian media and MoD has called the missile that hit the building a BUK. Even though they are not trust worthy or accurate a lot of the time, I think it is the correct assumption.

A video of the impact clearly shows the exhaust of a rocket motor as it impact

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497471317452509187

This rules MRLS such as BM-21 "Grad" (used by both sides) which does not have its rocket motor active on impact. For instance in this video you do not see the trails of the rockets incoming

Ukraine also claims this is a Russian cruise missile. The 3M-54 Kalibr is one of Russia's workhorse cruise missiles. The Kalibr though is powered at cruise by a jet engine not a rocket engine, so it would also have not left a trail such as this video shows

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496735344221470721