Thread by @edwardfishman

The US, EU, Canada, & the UK just released a joint statement committing to several major sanctions actions, including a SWIFT ban and restrictions on the Central Bank of Russia. This is a big deal, but details will matter. Here's my initial analysis (🧵):
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

(1) On SWIFT, the allies committed to remove "selected" Russian banks from SWIFT. This is a good move. It means that the allies will couple blocking sanctions with targeted SWIFT bans. Only banks that are sanctioned will be blocked from SWIFT. It will not be a blanket SWIFT ban.

What will I be watching for? The names of the "selected" banks. If the banks include the big fish—Sberbank, VTB, and Gazprombank—this is an absolutely huge deal. Let's wait and see.

(2) On the Central Bank of Russia, the allies committed to "prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions." That is hard to read, but it doesn't necessarily mean full-blocking sanctions.

The wording suggest a more scalpel-like measure, in which the allies prevent the CBR from deploying reserves to bail out other sanctioned entities. Yes, this would be a big deal. But it would not be as big of a deal as full-blocking sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia.

What will I be watching for? In addition to the details above, I'm interested if implementation is immediate or if there's a grace period (like w/the Sberbank measure earlier this week). To maximize impact, the allies should impose full-blocking sanctions with immediate effect.

(3) The statement also includes wording that puts Putin cronies on notice. It indicates the allies will take steps to ban the sale of golden passports to the Russian elite—particularly those connected to the Kremlin.

My guess is they included this warning to incentivize elites to distance themselves from Putin's war and perhaps to criticize it. What will I be watching for? How broad the list is. Most of Putin's closest cronies are already sanctioned. Will all billionaires be targeted?

(4) Finally, the allies committed to collaborate to ensure effective sanctions implementation. This is not a headline, but it could be significant. Sanctions enforcement tends to be far more lax in Europe than in the US. Amping up EU sanctions enforcement would be important.

The allies also committed "to detect and disrupt the movement of ill-gotten gains, and to deny these individuals the ability to hide their assets in jurisdictions across the world." Sounds like a general commitment to beef up anti-corruption regimes.

Revamping global anti-corruption regulations to actually curtail Russian money laundering and stashing of ill-gotten gains would be a big deal. It will take time to do this. I hope the allies are committed to making it happen.

(5) Overall, this is a strong statement. It signals unified intent to impose comprehensive sanctions on Russia. Details will matter. But the train has left the station: this statement will box in leaders to deliver major sanctions in the coming days unless Putin backs down. /end