The fear of taking action that might escalate this war so that it spills beyond the borders of Ukraine or creates a nuclear crisis is real, understandable and even a sign of sanity.
The fear of what happens to Ukraine and also to the international order if we do not more actively defend them is also real, understandable and our answer will help define the measure of our morality.
Putin's calculus was wrong on many levels--depending on Western disunity, American weakness, and Ukrainian passivity in the face of invasion. On each front he has grossly misunderstood the situation and his plans have been confounded.
But he has always felt that in the end, his nuclear arsenal granted him effective impunity, that he could act within his near abroad against any nation (that was not part of a nuclear-armed alliance) as he wished. He felt no nation, even a strong one would challenge him.
It would be a terrible mistake to grant him or any other nuclear weapon state that kind of license. Every tool short of military conflict should be exhausted to dissuade them from violating the international order. But that cannot be the end of it or the impunity is granted.
We must have means--covert, cyber, unmanned, hybrid, defensive only, no-fly zones, training, providing weapons, and other--to actively defend the weak and the innocent, to stand up to aggressors like Russia. We must have confidence in our greater strength and resources.
Our diplomacy must always have the advantage of the leverage such approaches offer. And we are going to have to do some very serious rethinking of our doctrines and prior expectations real soon or we will watch this catastrophe inexorably unfold further.
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