Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 27, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
I will repeat that Putin does not care at all what happens to Russia or Russians and he never has. He thinks about staying in power today and tomorrow. That's it. You can never say a dictator has miscalculated as long as he's still the dictator.
Now that Putin's original plan to take Kyiv quickly, assuming the UKR military would collapse & Zelensky would flee, has failed, he will lift all restrictions on destruction in the capital in order to take it all costs.
Obviously they weren't avoiding civilian casualties before, but weren't seeking them. Now no more precision, just destruction and terror. Putin doesn't care "how it looks" to the world or to Ukrainians or to Russians if they cannot make him pay.
What is the difference to Putin if there are a 1000 dead or 10,000 or 100,000? Is he still in power? Is he still rich? As I've often said, the ability to act this way, purely selfishly, is a superpower of autocrats. Normal people cannot emulate it.
Putin will bomb & shell, attack key infrastructure to destroy the capacity of the city to resist. He doesn't want a long siege. His money will dry up from sanctions and the West's promised weapons are still far away. But Russian tanks are there now.

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More from @Kasparov63

Apr 29
Putin only cares about oil prices, getting sanctions lifted, and blocking aid and putting pressure on Ukraine. The worse Russia is doing in Ukraine, the more Ukraine strikes Russian energy, the more Putin will use Trump to seek relief.
Russia is murdering Ukrainians every day, bombing civilians in cities. Intentionally, a campaign of terror. And we're supposed to take these calls seriously when it's all garbage. Putin and Trump have always been on the same side and it's not America's or the free world's.
Summits, peace talks, negotiations, everything involving the US and Russia together has been a sham. A few business deals for their oligarchs and cronies, but otherwise just a show to avoid US aid, European action, and Ukrainian strikes. Congress & EU have abetted the charade.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 10
Hungary is the fight for the future of Europe. The election promises a change of power, but the Orbán regime and its supporters in the Kremlin will not go quietly. The EU cannot stand idly by. My op-ed in @zeitonline: zeit.de/politik/auslan…
With an aggressive Russia and a complicit America, what will Europe do to protect its values and interests? Is it willing to take on the role of leader of the free world, or will it stand by and watch events unfold, even as they move from its doorstep to squarely at home?
The war in Ukraine has forced European politicians to think pragmatically. For all my emphasis on values, this is good; if moral conviction isn't enough to get Europe’s leaders to intervene on behalf of freedom, but imminent threat of war & democratic collapse will, so be it.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
When mail-in voting is limited or eliminated, then selected polling stations are closed or surrounded with "security checks", when poll workers are replaced by ICE "for security", when ballots are confiscated for "fraud", maybe you’ll take it seriously. Too late.
Remember that they aren’t afraid of being caught, or how bad it looks; they’re only afraid of losing power. If you win, you have total impunity—they believe and they’ve been told. Pardons for everyone who is in on the scam, again. So no scheme is too brazen.
Riots at polling stations with emergency crackdowns, boxes of pre-filled ballots, buses with carousel voters, intimidation of poll workers, allies with access to the counting—all the Putin tricks. Why not? They don’t care if they get caught, and it only has to work a few times.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 11
Putin is being helpful indeed. According to accumulating intelligence reports, he’s helping Iran kill US forces. But Trump and Witkoff say that Putin told them he’s not, and it would be too humiliating for them to admit the truth. Congress? Anybody?
Iran and Russia have both confirmed that Russia is continuing to support its longtime close ally in this war. The only people who don’t believe this are Trump and buffoons like Witkoff who depend on Trump and Putin for their livelihoods.
Btw, two days before this war started, I wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the number two most advanced nation in the world for drone tech and tactics was now Russia, and that NATO nations were not prepared because they weren’t learning and buying from number one, Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 4
Adding to my thread on why authoritarians like chaos to include Iran itself. Firing on its neighbors is a way of raising the stakes, of trying to show the cautious Gulf states & Western democracies that it is willing to burn everything down. Part bluff, part desperation.
Putin has demonstrated the effectiveness of simply showing the will to use force, to kill and be killed, while the strongest military alliance in history has no such will. This is the legacy of 35 post-Cold War years and a generation of rich and complacent leaders & citizens.
If you aren't willing to fight for your values, even for your own security, you will be bullied by those who are, even if their values are abhorrent. *Especially* if they are, in fact. As true in domestic politics as in geopolitics and war.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
I’ve written on this dynamic, and although Iran is Russia’s ally, this attack being "bad for Putin" is not clear unless there are real consequences—military or economic. Chaos usually favors dictators & strongmen who can exploit opportunities quickly and dominate the headlines.
It’s humiliating for another of Putin's thug allies to be taken out like this, and it reduces Russia’s malign influence network significantly for the moment. But dictators don’t care about intangibles, only about being in power tomorrow and the next day.
Without strategic follow-up, a new Iranian leadership equally aligned with Russia may arise. And the price of oil, which Putin actually cares about because it funds his wars and his corruption, almost always goes up during war and uncertainty. Iran attacking so widely does both.
Read 5 tweets

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