🧵Thoughts from Kyiv - afternoon 27 February
From Mychailo Winnyckyj, 🇨🇦-🇺🇦Acadamic, Kyiv Mohila Academia
1. Kyiv survived another night. The Russian invaders continue their forward movement from the north, but their reconnaissance groups are being stamped out like cockroaches.
From Mychailo Winnyckyj, 🇨🇦-🇺🇦Acadamic, Kyiv Mohila Academia
1. Kyiv survived another night. The Russian invaders continue their forward movement from the north, but their reconnaissance groups are being stamped out like cockroaches.
2. Civillians are stopping the advance of tanks and armored vehicles with their bare hands. The heroism and valour of ordinary Ukrainians is both moving and nothing less than amazing.
3. Russian losses are mounting. At 9am the Deputy Minister of Defence reported over 4200 KIA and wounded, 27 downed jets, 26 helicopters, 146 destroyed tanks and 706 armored vehicles. The list of losses goes on.
4. Economic sanctions against 🇷🇺 will take time to really bite, but they will. Military aid continues to flow in from Ukraine's western allies (and we are grateful!). The sky has not been closed yet with a no-fly zone and we continue to ask for global support for this initiative.
5. Putin is obviously on pause today - likely reassessing his options after the blatant failure of his planned blitzkreig. The longer he thinks, the more Ukrainians mobilize and the more costs he incurs. So he will act soon.
6. Most worrying scenario involves indiscriminate use by Russia of heavy rockets on Ukrainian cities. Initially they will launch Iskander and Buratino, but even intermediate missiles could be thrown at us.
7. A chemical or nuclear option cannot be discounted if the war continues to go badly for Russia.
Of course in this scenario, the international community will be pressuring Ukraine to agree to peace talks.
Of course in this scenario, the international community will be pressuring Ukraine to agree to peace talks.
8. And here's the problem: Zelensky can agree to peace only on the condition that Russia removes all of its troops from Ukrainian territory (including Crimea). Anything less will be completely unacceptable to a fully mobilized Ukrainian population.
9. But accepting such a condition will mean political suicide for Putin. He now has no option but to escalate.
Today's public order to bring all of Russia's defences (veiled - including nuclear forces) to full war readiness, was just that - escalation.
Today's public order to bring all of Russia's defences (veiled - including nuclear forces) to full war readiness, was just that - escalation.
10. Now western leaders and populations will be panicking and pressuring Ukraine to agree to peace. But again - peace without full withdrawal of the Russian invader from Ukraine is impossible, and Putin will never agree to such a withdrawal.
11. The world is now in an impossible situation. We cannot agree to Putin's terms because that would amount to appeasing aggression and would encourage more war. But the longer Ukraine waits for direct involvement by NATO forces, the more people will die (on both sides).
12. Ukrainians will continue to resist, Russia will launch more and more rockets on our cities. Destruction, death, suffering...
As I've said before, Ukraine's army and population will defend itself.
As I've said before, Ukraine's army and population will defend itself.
13. We will prevail. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine. It can only destroy us. But in the process it will destroy the entire world. We are grateful for the global support that Ukrainians have received in our fight for freedom.
14. But very soon this war may become more than just a story of valour in a distant corner of Europe. The war that has been started in Ukraine by the maniac in the Kremlin may very soon go global.
God help us all! #StandWithUkraineNOW
God help us all! #StandWithUkraineNOW
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