Specifically, imposing economic sanctions is a key part of the international response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
While we might think of sanctions as a "non-violent" instrument that can deter an attack or cause a war to deescalate, that's not always (or even often) the case journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Showing "resolve" via sanctions/imposing no-fly-zones/sending arms is not always a straight line of "the more pressure I impose, the more resolved I look, and, hence, the more likely my opponent is to back down." onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
In particular, an opponent, due to the prospect of losing or experiencing the hardship of a war, could take desperate actions.
Sanctions + war fighting not going well can feed such a sentiment in an opponent.
This can be due to the opponent following a "better now than later logic" (i.e. it's only going to get worse for us, so better strike now) tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Indeed, this logic goes a long way towards explaining why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941
Autocratic leaders are especially prone to the latter logic because, once out of office, things don't typically end well for them. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
In sum, there is worry that the more actions the US/NATO/International Community takes to show "resolve" (via sanctions or other measures), the more desperate Putin could become...and the greater the risk of major escalation.
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R2P is "the responsibility to protect its populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity". This means nations can't hide behind the barrier of "sovereignty" to stop interventions.
The House passed a defense supplement for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
Ukraine aid was the most controversial portion of the supplement and might cost Speaker Johnson his leadership position.
Why did he do it?
[THREAD]
As is being reported, Johnson stated “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall....This is not a game, this is not a joke.” cnn.com/2024/04/21/pol…
While it's partly personal for Johnson, his remarks emphasize a larger point, one that I raised in a recent @WPReview column: cutting off US aid won't end the war. Instead, it would embolden Russia. worldpoliticsreview.com/us-ukraine-aid…