Imagine if the same approach was applied to clinical trials of covid-19 vaccines. "We don't know if the data is authentic. We don't have the full data. But we're sure our analysis is robust."
Should science journalists be seeking out scientists who were convinced by the paper?
At the very least, when you're interviewing these scientists for quotes, please make sure they are aware of the source of the data (this Epoch Times leak; citation 41 in the preprint) and that the data is incomplete and likely prone to sampling bias. epochtimes.com/gb/20/5/31/n12…
If you're aware that @ScienceMagazine is peer reviewing these preprints, please help to point the editor to this glaring problem with the scientific analysis in one of the preprints.
@ScienceMagazine I've searched all 3 preprints and none of them have the data on how many samples were collected at each stall.
@ScienceMagazine Although I will note that the only preprint with access to full data wrote that the market SARS2-positive surface samples are likely derived from human beings at the market. "No animal host of SARS-CoV-2 can be deduced."
They also wrote that they did not observe any association of cases with different products, e.g., wildlife. And their results suggest the virus might have been circulating in the market for a period to time in Dec 2019, leading to extensive distribution facilitated by crowds.
Naturally, I'd like to see the data in full first. Which is why I added my name to @jbloom_lab's open letter to request the data.
To facilitate discussion, here it is, the text in their preprint that says they can't verify the data, don't have key data, but believe their analysis is robust.
It's important to remember that a single individual can get some things right and other things really wrong.
For example, some scientists & journalists are fantastic at precisely explaining new variants and vaccine efficacy, but somehow terrible on the topic of #OriginOfCovid
It's tempting to assume the rest of their research or reporting might be similarly poor, but I know that these scientists and journalists are generally doing an incredible job in other areas. I just wish that they would apply similar standards of rigor to #OriginOfCovid
I'm really sure that, most of the time, these scientists and journalists are aware that you need to have complete data before making confident assertions.
The coverage of the newest preprints by the Proximal Origin authors and friends must be breaking some kind of record.
Has anyone else heard of preprints being featured on @nytimes front-page news? Not to mention at the same time as a war is starting. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Glad to see that many of the @nytimes subscribers who commented on the article have solid critical thinking abilities.
To quote one of them:
"I wish @carlzimmer had taken the time to do more research before writing this article."
@nytimes@carlzimmer It's great that this @nytimes front-page news article is being proactively archived at different times to show its evolution as @carlzimmer appears to be reading the work and updating his article with figures and pictures from the preprints. archive.fo/https://www.ny…
My stance on some controversial hypotheses being floated:
1. RaTG13 is not the parent of SARS-CoV-2. 2. Omicron most likely evolved naturally. 3. The SARS2 furin cleavage site did not come from a Moderna patent and 4. It did not come from the human ENaC protein.
Importantly, none of the above need to be true in order for the #OriginOfCovid to be lab-related or to have involved genetic engineering.
I don't understand why some people are making the issue so weird and complicated.
By their own grant documents and research publications, the scientists were engaged in the type of virus discovery and manipulation research that could've plausibly led to the emergence of SARS2.
No need for any Moderna, ENaC protein, RaTG13 shenanigans.
It's difficult for me to understand why it has been so difficult for the NIH to tell us what it knows about the coronavirus research that was happening in Wuhan as part of an international collaboration. theintercept.com/2022/02/20/nih…
From the few non-redacted pages in this FOIA'ed document, you can see that there are also emails describing post-pandemic Covid-19 response research mixed into this batch. We don't know if there are more EcoHealth-related content under the 292 pages of redactions.
But @theintercept tells us that "The NIH still had more than 1,400 pages of relevant documents in its possession... the agency appears to have no urgency to make this critical information public." theintercept.com/2022/02/20/nih…
Just listened to @joerogan convo with @mtosterholm
Dr Osterholm's expertise in epidemiology shines. I also appreciated how he handled #OriginOfCovid questions like a scientist - being honest when he doesn't know or is relying on the judgment of his peers. open.spotify.com/episode/5VSukF…
@joerogan@mtosterholm Many of the problems scientists have gotten into during the pandemic have involved trying to send overly simplistic or confident messages to the public when there is still too much unknown or when data has yet to be collected.
The public needs to get used to hearing scientists say that they don't know (yet), or that particular topics are outside of their expertise, or that they have not had time to look into specific issues even if it is within their wheelhouse.