older @DanielYergin on The New Map, Energy, Climate & the Clash of Nations:
* there are 1M kids currently 'employed' in lithium mining
* a new lithium mine takes 16 yrs to open
* EV's are 20% plastic, which comes from petroleum
Lost in the brutal geopolitical news, a few of my favorite reads of the year dropped this week...they're below if you're looking to think on something else for a bit
A simple way to think about stock markets...and returns in that mode back to 1920s in US.
Green Light: cheap, in an uptrend , 17%
Yellow Light: expensive, in an uptrend, 9% (now)
Red Light: expensive, in a down trend, 3%
trend 10-month SMA
valuation CAPE ratio at the time
This exercise really illustrates two insights...
1. The trend is your friend.
2. Using only value is dangerous as you can still make money in expensive markets and bubbles. But you need to have a parachute exit for when the signal changes...
So obviously the US is in Yellow Light mode (was darn close to Red Light recently and QQQs are there)....but there are some markets that are in Green Light mode, or as my friend Sjugg describes...
"We need to make America the place where everyone is an owner, and everyone acts like an owner. We need to make it the place where hard work and risk taking are applauded and rewarded."