Thread by @holger_r

THREAD
A few bulletpoints from an interview I had today with the EE Foreign Intel chief @MarrMikk.

*Putin presumed (falsely) a 48-hours 'shock and awe' type of war. Now there's reformation and fresh units will be sent towards Kiev.

There's a risk of RU using more extensive firepower & 'less avoidance of targeting civil objects'.

"I assess today that Putin can't wage an intensive war for more than 2 months." Refers to low motivation, growing tiredness of RU troops + high resistance level in UA.

"Until now, the presumption was that RU does not want a war with NATO. The now-ongoing scenario indicates that this presumption might not hold any longer."

"We presume that a nuclear strike against UA would be one of the last possibilities in front of Putin." (The interview was just before the announcement of elevation.)

"Domestically it's the most difficult time for Putin in 20 yrs. The amount of petitions and protests is impressive." Refers to oligarchs, church, duma deputies, medical workers, sportsmen.

Regarding BY: the state doesn't have any other perspective under Lukashenko other than a puppet state of RU.

What EUR should do: continue max sanctions against RU, BY (visa bans, blocking airspace etc). Continue with max political and mil equipment support to UA. UA has 3rd largest land forces in EUR, good training, lots of xp, taking Western provided weapons into use, is no problem.

Currently no direct military threat to Estonia. Troops from near EE borders have been taken away to UA.

Finally: regarding the mood among RU troops: "I can only say that fighting a war in UA is everything else but popular inside RU armed forces."

Here's the full interview (paywalled).
ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/96029…