Here's a story we worked on for a year. We analysed 24 RU mil bases behind Baltic and Polish borders and engaged top level military sources to evaluate our findings.

It is a story how the war would play out in case RU would decide to start it. 🧵⬇️
ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/12033… Let’s start with good news. Satellite images provided to us by @planet indicate that equipment and vehicles have largely disappeared from RU bases. Such as here in Luga, just 120 km from EE border with RU.

How does Russia use Telegram to recruit people in Europe to commit arsons, blow up stuff and kill? We went undercover to find out.

Here’s what we discovered. (Spoiler: Telegram blocked several Wagner/RU mil channels in EU after our request for comment.)
occrp.org/en/investigati… Several Wagner-related channels such as the Grey Zone are promoting the Say Privet bot. It invites to say “privet” and become involved in sabotage ops in Europe. “You are ones that the Western establishment is afraid of. They are afraid that there will be more of you,” it tempts.

A few months ago we ran a small experiment. We created a new account in Telegram and started looking for a job. We joined channels that were directly about jobs in Estonia. Here’s what happened. We were quickly offered to 1) carry migrants from Belarusian border to Germany, 2) to scam Swiss out of their savings, 3) launder money by allowing unknown people use our bank accounts, 4) different drug related gigs, 5) send a photo of our penis for 2500 USD (we rejected).

NEW! Leaked documents show how the Kremlin arranges propaganda attacks and information operations against the Baltic countries, Belarus and Moldova… and how they are in large part failing. 👇 This is a slide from a presentation that sums up propaganda operations arranged by the Cross-border Cooperation directorate (CBC) in June last year. CBC is part of Russia’s presidential administration, its employees usually have intelligence services backgrounds.

⬇️⬇️Today in the #KremlinLeaks: we obtained a secret internal poll with an alleged 44,100 respondents. It was ordered by Putin’s administration in late Feb to enquire about upcoming presidential “elections” and what people think about the war.
vsquare.org/secret-kremlin… While difficult to assess the survey’s credibility in a country where any dissent is heavily penalized, several experts said the poll had a professional setup and some of the results had comparable results to public polls.

Here’s what you need to know about our today’s #KremlinLeaks story.

New details emerge about the Russian Red Cross’ (RRC) direct cooperation with people and organizations responsible for abducting Ukrainian kids.

Thread ⬇️
vsquare.org/kremlin-leaks-…
This photo was taken on Jan 24 this year. The president of RRC Pavel Savchuk and director of the Artek children’s camp, Konstantin Fedorenko in Crimea shake hands and sign an agreement to strengthen “cooperation in the education of young people”.

Today in the #KremlinLeaks: how the Kremlin turned the RU Red Cross into part of Russia’s war propaganda machine.

How so? Let me explain. Just 2 weeks ago the Russian Red Cross (RRC) signed a cooperation agreement with the Defenders of the Fatherland org.
The EU sanctioned both the org and its head Anna Tsivileva because their aim is to send RU veterans back to the frontine.
Btw, Tsivileva is Putin's cousin.

Avaldasime täna esimesed lood “Kremli lekete” sarjast. Uus sari põhineb Kremlist lekkinud dokumentidel, mis maalivad üksikasjaliku pildi, kuidas Putin eesolevad valimised võidab ja kuidas Kreml peab omaenda inimeste vastu infosõda.
delfi.ee/artikkel/12027…
Meile lekkinud failides nähakse selleks tänavuseks aastaks kokku 1,1 miljardit eurot. Mitmete projektide puhul on rahastuse taga Putini isiklik nõusolek. Näiteks pidi propagandist Vladimir Solovjov saama 30 miljonit eurot, aga rahastus sõltus otseselt tema ja Putini kohtumisest.

"Küprose saladused" ehk #CyprusConfidential tähendab 3,6 miljonit lekkinud dokumenti, mis avavad Vene oligarhia jõukuse, selle varjamise ja kantimise telgitagused.

Meie avalugu keskendub Eesti perele, kes võitleb kohtus $3,4 miljardilise varanduse eest.
epl.delfi.ee/artikkel/12024…
Samaaegselt avaldasime ka teise artikli, milles tutvustame mõnesid tänase lekke "peategelasi". Leidsime Küprose korporatiivteenuseid pakkuvate firmade klientide seast ligi 100 venelast, kes kas ELi või Ukraina sanktsioonide all.

We spent the last few months investigating arms trade where profits skyrocketed with the start of the war in Ukraine.

We found a chain of brokers in Holland, Estonia, the Czech Republic that drove up the price of extremely needed ammo in March.

kyivindependent.com/investigations… Right before the war, the RPG7 grenade might have cost $200 per piece. Just 3 months into the deal, an Estonian broker charged $598 per piece. It allowed them to make a 2 million euro cut on the deal.

Samal ajal kui venelased mõrvasid Butšas tsiviilelanikke ja Ukraina sõjaväge ähvardas laskemoonakriis, võttis üks Eesti firma Ukrainasse saadetavate granaatide eest vahelt 2 miljonit eurot.

Meie värske uurimus koos @KyivIndependent, @LHreports, @welt

ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/12013… RPG-granaatide Ukrainasse viimiseks käivitus mitme vahendajaga skeem, kus Eesti firma vahendustasuks kujunes 30%. Rääkisime paljude relvavahendajatega, kes ütlevad, et tavapärane vahendustasu oleks 5-10%.

I interviewed the outgoing EE foreign intel chief @MarrMikk. Here are some of the assessments that might be more interesting internationally.

Russia's best units have been destroyed in the war which means it clearly lacks personnel to train the 200k men who've been drafted. "What we are seeing in Belarus, is a training mission. Russia is using BLR officers to train the draftees." Marran says Lukashenko is doing anything in his power not to contribute BLR units to the war.

Here's sth really exclusive. We interviewed counter-intelligence chiefs in all 3 Baltic countries to understand how the services interpret(ed) Russia already long before the war.
ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/12008… „Chaos is a trait of Russian culture. There always needs to be a shepherd; otherwise, it’s anarchy,“ says Aleksander Toots who has led Estonian KAPO's efforts to catch dozens of Russian spies.

Eilne uudis, et Eesti on maailma ajakirjandusvabaduse tabelis 4. kohal, ei peegelda tegelikkust ja loob petliku turvatunde. Näen mitut trendi, mis on meile ohtlikud. 🧵⬇️ Esiteks: järjest sagenev kohtuskäimine, kus hagetakse väljaande kõrval ajakirjanikke isiklikult. Näiteks Pandora Paberite ajal kulutasime ähvarduste, nõuete ja hagide peale mitu nädalat. See on aeg, mis peaks minema ajakirjandusliku töö peale. Juristid vaidlevad siiani.

EE counter-intel agency KAPO published today its annual review. Here are some of the highlights. KAPO says it's a 'public secret that Russia's top deciders have for years received biased information". Occasionally the info is bent already by its initial creators but 'self-censorship definitely kicks in at mid-level'. "State administrators and Putin only receive information that gives them satisfaction."

Alustasime Ekspress Meedia uurivas toimetuses 2a tagasi kolmekesi. Tänaseks on meid 7, seltskond rahvusvaheline. Kasutan võimalust me rakukest tutvustada.

Our investigative team of 3 has now grown to 7 ppl, we're now truly international. Let me use a chance to introduce us. ⬇️⬇️ .@riinaljas on meie dataajakirjanik. Kui meie töötame wordis, google drive'is ja chrome'is, siis Riinu ekraanil jookseb mustal taustal kood. Seda on teinekord hea rahustav vaadata, antistress.

Two Swedish high profile union leaders were murdered in Tallinn in early 1991, the uncertain months leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The investigators flown in from Moscow said it was a robbery gone wrong. The Swedish police weren't allowed to verify their claims. They never bought the official version. Now, an investigation by @farnbo (and a little help from me) reveals new details.

🧵I talked with an Estonian analyst who has access to info and who I regard as one of the best we have here. His main conclusion: "The danger is far from over but there is reason for a very cautious optimism. Russian advance has clearly stalled." More below: Since last Sat it's been relatively stable on the fronts. There is an expectation of a reforming of RU units and a new line of attack, but so far little evidence of it. "If Russia doesn't achieve a remarkable advance by end of week, difficult to see how it should come at all."

THREAD
A few bulletpoints from an interview I had today with the EE Foreign Intel chief @MarrMikk.

*Putin presumed (falsely) a 48-hours 'shock and awe' type of war. Now there's reformation and fresh units will be sent towards Kiev. There's a risk of RU using more extensive firepower & 'less avoidance of targeting civil objects'.

"I assess today that Putin can't wage an intensive war for more than 2 months." Refers to low motivation, growing tiredness of RU troops + high resistance level in UA.