We’re a few days into the Russia / Ukraine war.
Here’s what I see.
Here’s what I see.
Putin’s fundamental calculus hasn’t changed:
The West is weak — mil & economically. Europe desperately needs his oil & gas. That won’t change for years.
Sanctions are uncomfortable but bearable. He saw more coming, and planned for it.
Ukraine is (still) ripe for the taking.
The West is weak — mil & economically. Europe desperately needs his oil & gas. That won’t change for years.
Sanctions are uncomfortable but bearable. He saw more coming, and planned for it.
Ukraine is (still) ripe for the taking.
Putin’s most critical partner — China — remains on board.
The West’s pressure campaign on Beijing is a joke. Biden & Co are corrupt & have little leverage.
Xi will continue to watch, and look for ways to benefit.
Taking Taiwan is tantalizing. But premature as of now.
The West’s pressure campaign on Beijing is a joke. Biden & Co are corrupt & have little leverage.
Xi will continue to watch, and look for ways to benefit.
Taking Taiwan is tantalizing. But premature as of now.
Putin didn’t expect effective resistance in Ukraine.
He prob assumed defenses would more or less crumble.
His conventional military strategy matches this assumption… It appears designed to limit major destruction in order to benefit a new regime in Kiev he’d control.
He prob assumed defenses would more or less crumble.
His conventional military strategy matches this assumption… It appears designed to limit major destruction in order to benefit a new regime in Kiev he’d control.
Putin also assumed Kiev would fall before the West would send major weaponry that would bog him down.
But. Europe is now organizing a mil response that may / may not arrive in time.
That’s a credible escalation. So Putin’s escalating in return: putting his nuke forces on alert.
But. Europe is now organizing a mil response that may / may not arrive in time.
That’s a credible escalation. So Putin’s escalating in return: putting his nuke forces on alert.
Will Putin use nukes?
“Experts” say no. I say maybe.
Putin put it all on the line with this invasion — including his life, as he knows he’s a dead man if it fails.
Desperate men do desperate things.
“Experts” say no. I say maybe.
Putin put it all on the line with this invasion — including his life, as he knows he’s a dead man if it fails.
Desperate men do desperate things.
The West is in hilariously bad shape.
After 20 years of ignoring the Russian threat, the scramble is on in Europe. Cool. Too late.
Pour out the vodka if it makes you feel better, I guess.
Best outcome: those Western weapons get to Ukraine and make Putin bleed. Sue for peace.
After 20 years of ignoring the Russian threat, the scramble is on in Europe. Cool. Too late.
Pour out the vodka if it makes you feel better, I guess.
Best outcome: those Western weapons get to Ukraine and make Putin bleed. Sue for peace.
Ukraine propaganda is good.
Pres. Zelenskyy has stones. He’s playing a weak hand well, using social media to shame Europe into supporting him with real weapons.
But while propaganda makes for good clicks, it’s largely background noise.
Pres. Zelenskyy has stones. He’s playing a weak hand well, using social media to shame Europe into supporting him with real weapons.
But while propaganda makes for good clicks, it’s largely background noise.
The Biden Regime will continue to send cash & weaponry — the default USG foreign policy — as nobody knows what to do.
Mil Industrial Complex has its new cash cow. Politicians will talk tough, donations will flow.
Americans will be focused on inflation — not Kiev, or corruption.
Mil Industrial Complex has its new cash cow. Politicians will talk tough, donations will flow.
Americans will be focused on inflation — not Kiev, or corruption.
In the next few days & weeks, I’m looking for:
1) Putin’s choice of weapons. If he uses thermobaric stuff, his strategy of “limit damage” has changed.
2) China’s statements. Cracks in the Xi / Putin alliance — anything neg from Beijing — increase chances that Russia backs down.
1) Putin’s choice of weapons. If he uses thermobaric stuff, his strategy of “limit damage” has changed.
2) China’s statements. Cracks in the Xi / Putin alliance — anything neg from Beijing — increase chances that Russia backs down.
3) Unexpected high impact events.
Wars can turn on a dime via the mundane (collapsed logistics lines), horrific attacks / accidents (new Chernobyl spill, destroyed children’s hospital, etc), or surprise moves by adversaries (NATO announces their nukes in Ukraine).
Wars can turn on a dime via the mundane (collapsed logistics lines), horrific attacks / accidents (new Chernobyl spill, destroyed children’s hospital, etc), or surprise moves by adversaries (NATO announces their nukes in Ukraine).
4) China’s moves on Taiwan.
Xi wants Taiwan as bad as Putin wants Ukraine. Xi is more patient and calculated, however.
Still, he has hawk advisors who are chomping at the bit. They’ve waited for this moment of Western weakness for a long time.
They hate us more than you know.
Xi wants Taiwan as bad as Putin wants Ukraine. Xi is more patient and calculated, however.
Still, he has hawk advisors who are chomping at the bit. They’ve waited for this moment of Western weakness for a long time.
They hate us more than you know.
Upshot: this is a wildly dangerous and unpredictable time.
Whatever this new world is, it ain’t gonna be a nice one for a long while.
Whatever this new world is, it ain’t gonna be a nice one for a long while.
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