Since the invasion began, the scale and rapidity of geopolitical shifts have been astonishing. Already:
Russia has moved from a sullen, revisionist state to a clear and present danger to its neighbors, and has directly threatened countries beyond Ukraine. Governments have no trust in or tolerance for the Putin regime. (1)
The world’s major economies, save China, have combined to foment a financial crisis in Russia, casting aside the previous worries about systemic economic risk. That, in turn, may provoke domestic unrest with unknown implications. (2)
Germany has moved from a pacifist laggard on defense spending to announcing a huge increase, moving ahead of 2% of GDP. “We must put a stop to warmongers like Putin,” the new Chancellor says. “That requires strength of our own.” A new Germany. (3)
Finland and Sweden are firmly aligned with the West and against Moscow, and the invasion may tip them into NATO membership. (4)
Neutral Switzerland – Switzerland! – will freeze Russian assets as a result of Moscow’s aggression. Full neutrality has become untenable given popular revulsion at the invasion. (5)
The sanctions response has been global, with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and more joining the anti-aggression bloc. Economic and geopolitical implications stretch well beyond Europe. (6)
China is badly exposed, having trumpeted a “no limits” friendship with Russia. It is openly siding not with the numerous wealthy, powerful, and unified countries opposing Moscow’s aggression, but rather with a reckless country that is being isolated and impoverished. (7)
The European Union, which for two decades has talked about taking on a military role, with very little to show for it, is suddenly providing EU-funded fighter jets to Ukraine. Crossing a Rubicon. (8)
The world is disconnecting Russia from globalization’s benefits: trade, travel, finance, technology, & drawing a curtain around the country. The result will be a poorer, more isolated & weaker Russia. A bet on diminishing Russian capability rather than changing its behavior. (9)
All this and more over a long weekend. We don’t know how this war ends, other than in tragedy for all those caught in its grasp. But already some geopolitical outlines are coming into focus. There will be more to come. END
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