Putin is following in the same footsteps as the Soviet predecessors he reveres so much. In the mid-70s, America was defeated, economically hurting, and NATO was a mess. Stupid Soviet policies reinvigorated NATO and helped lead to the final decade of Soviet rule. /1
Not only did Soviet aggression turn Jimmy Carter into a new Cold Warrior, but as Politburo advisor Georgii Arbatov later admitted. the Soviets themselves helped to bring people like Reagan to power. (Interestingly, this is only in the *Russian* version of his memoirs.) /2
Putin, now as delusional and paranoid as the old men of the Kremlin 40 years ago, is doing the same thing, creating a firm Western coalition against him at a time when American and NATO would prefer, mostly, to ignore Russia and just do business. /3
The Putin of 20 years ago seemed to be a sensible and relatively measured leader. The crazy old man we're dealing with now is like the worst mashup of Andropov and Khrushchev and even Stalin, an isolated boss who doesn't understand the world around him anymore. /4x
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If you think intervention is worth World War III in Ukraine - and yes, I understand the arguments for that - then just say it. Because this cocked-up warplan in UKR is not the plan that will come off the shelf if NATO intervenes.
/1
If NATO did intervene, and Russia widens its war to go after NATO nations, they will lose. But first, there will be a rally among Russians who would MUCH rather fight NATO than their brothers and sisters in UKR. /2
And when Russia is faced with losing, and this is no longer over Putin's war in Ukraine but the General Staff's losing war in Europe, people in Moscow who might *never* agree to go to the wall for Putin might well be willing to go down in flames rather than lose to NATO. /3
Well over 20 years ago, I was in Poland, and we were talking with our Polish colleagues about NATO expansion. I was pretty dismissive of the idea that Russia would make war on their brothers in Ukraine.
I was wrong. /1
Maybe I was just optimistic, after living through the Cold War. Maybe I believed in the basic humanity of the Russian people.
I still believe in that.
But the idea that Russians, freed from communism, would make war on their neighbors seemed utterly fantastic to me.
/2
I want to believe that there are people -even in the Kremlin - who will stop Putin before this becomes a global cataclysm. But I cannot deny that I was too optimistic, too heady with the end of the Cold War, to believe that anyone had the stomach for another European war. /3
Unrelated to the specific kerfuffle in my TL, here's a thought.
If you are inclined to believe that snotty blue checks don't engage people, do not complain when said blue check engages everyone as best he can.
There's one of me, many of you responding. /1
If you're telling me what to answer, what subjects to cover, or that you think I'm just here to "stir the pot" or other accusations of bad faith, I'll just block you to clear out the TL. I've had enough of that, thankyouverymuch.
I do my best to respond as much as I can. /2
My life would be a lot easier and more fun to just respond to the attaboys or just ignore all comments entirely, but that's never been my approach.
If you don't like the subject, then mute the thread, stop following, or turn off Twitter. You are grownups and have that power.
/3
This was a group of very senior guys, GO/FO level some of them, and I snapped off a few shots of them. My man General Crackdown in the middle was not happy, as you can see.
I pulled the fill roll and made my mom stick it in her bra while was approached by an officer. /1
He, uh, told me to hand it over and come with him. I told him I didn't speak Russian. He switched to German. I told him I didn't speak German, either, but probably shouldn't have admitted I knew it was German. /2
My mother had no idea where she was in Moscow but I told her: "Film in bra, head away from me, I'll catch up."
The officer gave up and I started speaking English *loudly* and waving like Gomer Pyle and walked away. Mom and I made it to the Metro. /3
In this piece, @Jbarro notes my frustration with people who will not vote to save democracy because they're worried about inflation. I take the point, but I have *always* felt this way about voters reacting to stuff that presidents don't control. /1
In fact, one of the reasons I became a Republican in the late 70s was that I grew up in a blue collar area where people thought it was the responsibility of the President to find a job for every wage-earner, which isn't the way it works. (And I heard that a lot.) /2
I pleaded with people: You have mayors, state reps, governors. State government. You have to vote at the national level for things of national importance and solve local stuff at the local level. But nope. /3