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Anders Åslund

Feb 28 • 11 tweets • 2 min read

The EU published its latest round of sanctions on 26 Russians for "undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine." 3 state CEOs, 6 oligarchs, 8 propagandists, 3 ministers, 4 military, 2 friends & Sogaz.
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…

As last week, we see that the EU has got ahead of the US in being much tougher on Russia in its sanctions. It seems as if the EU has gained muscle after the UK departed because the UK sanctions last week were laughable. Now the US had better keep up.

6 real oligarchs were sanctioned. Finally, Alisher Usmanov, the great Putin fronter was sanctioned. The US has to follow. Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko was hit, although he is a Finnish citizen (Great, Finland!).

Severstal's outstanding & likable CEO and owner Alexei Mordashov actually owns part of Putin groups. The surprise was that Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven of Alfa Group were sanctioned, although Aven is a Latvian citizen. Alexander Ponomarenko of Sheremetyevo was also hit.

The EU is delightfully good at going after Kremlin propagandists. Enjoy: Kremlin liar-in-chief Dmitry Peskov, Rossiya-1 3rd liar Olga Skabeyeva (after Kiselyov & Solovyov), Tigran Keosyan, Modest Kolerov, Roman Babayan, Yevgeniy Prilepin, Anton Krasovsky & Arkady Mamontov.

By sanctioning the Kremlin disinformation warriors, the EU is setting a new standard of decency that the US and the UK should follow.

I was happy to see that three nasty state CEOs were sanctioned. Rosneft's unbearable Igor Sechin and Transneft's Nikolay Tokarev are both old Putin KGB associates, while Petr Fradkov of Promsvyazbank is only there because his dad was high in the KGB, another golden youth.

Surprisingly, the EU sanctioned 3 ministers - Deputy PM Chernyshenko, Minister of Construction Faizullin, and MInister of Transport Vitaly Savelyev - as members of the supervisory board of the Russian Railways. Sensibly, former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern just resigned...

I care little about four senior military officers being sanctioned, but it was great to see Putin's childhood friend the cellist Sergei Roldugin sanctioned, after Putin had parked $2 billion with him. That is money even in Putin's Russia.

So who is still not sanctioned?
1. Roman Abramovich!!!
2. Leonid Mikhelson
3. Putin's par-amour Alina Kabaeva
4. His daughter Katerina and Maria
5. Gerhard Schröder (German citizen)
6. Boris Rotenberg (Finnish citizen)
7. Matthias Warnig (German)
Yet, congratulations, EU!

What should the US & UK take note of?
Sanction all top propagandists!
Sanction Roman Abramovich, Alisher Usmanov (lives in Londongrad) & Leonid Mikhelson!
Also Putin's par-amour Alina Kabaeva & his daughters Katerina and Maria!
Gerhard Schröder & Matthias Warnig!

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Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

Mar 2

Essentially, the West took down Russian finances in one day. The situation is likely to become worse than in 1998 because now there is no positive end. All Russia's capital markets appear to be wiped out & they are unlikely to return with anything less than profound reforms.

The Moscow stock markets have closed & Russian stocks are no longer traded in New York, presumably all 31 soon gone in London. The three big foreign banks in Moscow are likely to withdraw: Raiffeisen, Societe General & Unicredit: No profitable business in sight.

After Russia has fallen out of the international payments system, it is very cumbersome to sell to Russia. It is likely to be blacklisted by FATF soon. Why even try to sell there? You don't know whether you will be paid. Lots of companies stop selling to Russia.

Read 7 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

Mar 1

A few thoughts about Putin's failure in Ukraine.
1. He knows nothing about Ukraine but believes his own lies. The Russian Embassy in Kyiv has nobody who actually reads Ukrainian sources. Moscow has nobody who does.
2. Sergei Shoigu has destroyed Serdyukov's military reforms.

3. Putin's KGB friend from Dresden, Sergei Chemezov, has destroyed the Russian military complex so Russian military equipment should be sold as scrap iron.
4. Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov's military genius is only propaganda. He is a substandard obedient mind.

5. Putin thought that the West would never become serious about sanctions, because the West (Berlusconi, Schröder, Chirac, Trump & the UK) is so corrupt & well paid by the Kremlin, but something changed (democracy).
6. Ukraine stood up but Putin did not know it existed.

Read 4 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

Feb 27

Unsurprisingly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to be a spectacular failure in so many ways:
The idea of a Blitzkrieg failed. None of the planned tasks was accomplished as planned.
Not one single key city has been taken and held.
The Russian losses have been enormous.

The Russians failed to take out the Ukrainian air force and air defense. Many planes were apparently in the air.
The key airborne attack on Kyiv failed as the Russians failed to take either of the selected airports & the Ukrainians shot down to big IL-76, each w 125 paratroopers.

The attack from three directions on Kyiv is going nowhere. Massive Russian losses on the eastern bank. The attack from the north has been stopped far away (30 km?). The attack from the south is going nowhere.

Read 6 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

Feb 27

A sloppy saying is that Europe has returned to the Cold War. But Putin pursues a hot war in Europe. The most obvious parallel to Putin's assault on Ukraine is Adolf Hitler's attack on Poland on September 1, 1939, another unjustified and unprovoked war of conquest.

Similarly, Putin is more reminiscent of Hitler than Brezhnev. Remember that Brezhnev signed the Helsinki Final Act with its Third Basket of human rights. Putin has people murdered at home and abroad even with prohibited nerve agents.

The aim of Western policy should be to prosecute Putin in the International Criminal Court in The Hague. To make such a claim credible, the US had better join the ICC.

Read 7 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

Feb 27

The February 26 EU sanctions on Russia:
"First, we commit to ensuring that selected Russian banks are removed from the SWIFT messaging system. This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system..."
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

"Second, we commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions."

"Third, we commit to acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine and the harmful activities of the Russian government. Specifically, we commit to taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship—so called golden passports..."

Read 5 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

Feb 26

What the West should do now (fortunately much has already been done):
1. Do not communicate with Putin, Shoigu or Lavrov in any way. Excommunicate them!
2. Expel all Soviet embassies and their intelligence agencies & murderers in Western countries.

3. Do not give any visas to Russian state officials or their children, but open up to Russian civil society.
4. Kick out Russia from all kinds of international organizations when and where possible: Council of Europe, IOC, UEFA, FIFA, etc.

5. Pursue blocking Iranian-style financial sanctions against Russia and its state financial institutions.
6. Prohibit exports of relevant technology to Russia as long as Putin is in power (what Biden just did).

Read 5 tweets

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