Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Paul Poast Profile picture
@ProfPaulPoast
Mar 1, 2022 • 35 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
More than any war in my lifetime, the Ukraine-Russian War is demonstrating all the ways that economics is central to warfare.

[THREAD] Image
This war touches on EVERY component of the economics-security link:

- Economic warfare

- Macroeconomic Consequences

- Global Economic Consequences

- Commodities-and-War link

- War finance

- War Supply & burden-sharing

Let's explore each.
First and foremost, there is economic warfare itself, i.e. sanctions.

As is being well documented, the international community has unleashed a massive package of economic restrictions on Russia.

bbc.com/news/world-eur…
I mean, even SWITZERLAND...

...and Singapore are participating.

As @njtmulder observed, it is now complete global financial war against Russia.

But many are also pointing to the big risks associated with deploying the instruments of economic warfare at such massive scale.

Second and a consequence of the first, is the national macroeconomic consequence of war.

In short, Russia's financial sector...

...currency...

....and key industries...

...are being devastated.

This is what economists would call a "shock" (though it's definitely NOT an "exogenous" one) to the Russian economy....

nationalreview.com/the-morning-jo…
...and it is already having an impact on Russian society.

nytimes.com/2022/02/26/wor…
Of course, given where the fighting is taking place, the macroeconomic consequences of the war's destruction for Ukraine will be severe and lasting.

france24.com/en/video/20220…
Third, the war's economic impact is not limited to the direct participants. It is global.

The costs include...
...the financial sanctions generating financial hardship for the countries imposing them (after all, that's how economic sanctions work)...

...global grain supply chains being severely disrupted...

nytimes.com/2022/02/25/wor…
...oil markets being squeezed...

reuters.com/business/energ…
...inflation rising globally...

bbc.com/news/business-…
...the list can go on and on. I HIGHLY recommend that folks follow @adam_tooze to keep track of all of the global economic developments.

A key consequence of this global disruption is something that has occurred time and time and time again in the face of global crises (see, most recently, the outbreak of COVID19): strengthening of the US dollar (the true marker of US global hegemony).

Fourth and related to the impact the war has on oil, the war also illustrates the broader link between oil and war.

Namely, that oil wealth can lead to war.

@JeffDColgan has written extensively on this link...

amazon.com/Petro-Aggressi…
...and we're witnessing the oil price-war onset link in full effect.

Fifth, there is the "sinew of war": money. Wars cannot be fought if they are not financed.
The Ukrainian government recognized this immediately, with @NBUkraine setting up a special account to accept "financial donations".

bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/za…
Indeed, the money has been coming in from numerous sources.

aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28…
For instance, the United States was already contributing financial assistance to Ukraine, but has increased the assistance dramatically

state.gov/additional-mil…
What is notable is how the war is sparking other countries to reassess how much THEY spend on defense, particularly Germany:

That financing and spending are so critical to war fighting is why the latest edition of the text "What do We Know About War" (edited by @sbmitche & John Vasquez) includes a chapter on war financing by @rosellacappella & 🙋‍♂️.

amazon.com/What-Do-Know-a…
Sixth, the money raised is used to purchase weapons. That leads to yet another, and often underappreciated, economic aspect of war: supply.
To be clear, military professionals do not underappreciate supply. They take it VERY seriously. As the saying goes, "Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics."

What is notable is that the war is a massive COALITIONAL supply effort, with the arms are arriving from other countries and making their way to the battlefield.

The arms (what they call "pratical support") are coming from @NATO countries...

nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
...and, quite shockingly, from the European Union.

politico.eu/article/eu-ukr…
In sum, to understand war, both fighting and outcomes, you have to understand economics. That has never been more evident than in this war.

[END]

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Paul Poast

Paul Poast Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 21
The House passed a defense supplement for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

Ukraine aid was the most controversial portion of the supplement and might cost Speaker Johnson his leadership position.

Why did he do it?

[THREAD] Image
As is being reported, Johnson stated “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall....This is not a game, this is not a joke.”
cnn.com/2024/04/21/pol…
While it's partly personal for Johnson, his remarks emphasize a larger point, one that I raised in a recent @WPReview column: cutting off US aid won't end the war. Instead, it would embolden Russia.
worldpoliticsreview.com/us-ukraine-aid…
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 20
Let's do this.

A close reading of Donald Trump's recent description of the Battle of Gettysburg.

TL, DR: there were no pirates.

[THREAD] Image
ICYMI, here is a clip of what Trump said about the Battle of Gettysburg at his recent Pennsylvania rally

Let's start at the beginning:

"The Union was saved by the immortal heroes at Gettysburg"
Read 30 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 14
Are we on the brink of a larger Middle East War?

The risk increased in the past day, but is still low.

[SHORT THREAD]
Many of the points raised in 👇 🧵 from October still apply: larger wars happen because states want to be drawn in.

Is that still the case?
This @goodauth piece from October made related points about the tools states -- specifically Iran and Israel -- can use to control escalation.

goodauthority.org/news/will-the-…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 13
"International law is fake law."

"The only real law is domestic law."

Both statements are wrong. In some sense, the opposite might be true.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote recently in @WPReview, international law is flawed. But flawed shouldn't be confused with pointless.

worldpoliticsreview.com/war-gaza-inter…
I emphasized how international law is part of a broader diplomatic process where states try to convey their preferences over policy.

In other words, from signing a treaty to filing a ICJ dispute, international law provides information.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Read 20 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 6
To truly understand the current value of NATO, you need to think about a world without NATO.

Such "counterfactual thinking" lies at the heart of policy analysis...and IR scholarship.

[THREAD] Image
This 🧵 builds on my latest @WPReview piece. I argued that NATO is more valuable than ever to its members. But how do we actually know that?

worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-ukraine-r…
The key is to ask, "if NATO wasn't here, what would happen?"
Read 26 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Mar 30
NATO turns 75 years old this coming week.

To mark the event, here are 7 (and a half) historical facts about NATO.

[THREAD] Image
These facts draw from the #NATO7for70 series of 🧵 I wrote during NATO's 70th anniversary (along with *half* a new one). So this is essentially a 🧵 of🧵s.
Fact 1: NATO almost didn't happen. The negotiations were contentious, with France (yep, France) almost scuttling the whole deal. Lot's of contention over the treaty covering Algeria (then part of France) and including Italy.

Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(