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Paul Poast Profile picture
@ProfPaulPoast
Mar 1, 2022 • 35 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
More than any war in my lifetime, the Ukraine-Russian War is demonstrating all the ways that economics is central to warfare.

[THREAD] Image
This war touches on EVERY component of the economics-security link:

- Economic warfare

- Macroeconomic Consequences

- Global Economic Consequences

- Commodities-and-War link

- War finance

- War Supply & burden-sharing

Let's explore each.
First and foremost, there is economic warfare itself, i.e. sanctions.

As is being well documented, the international community has unleashed a massive package of economic restrictions on Russia.

bbc.com/news/world-eur…
I mean, even SWITZERLAND...

...and Singapore are participating.

As @njtmulder observed, it is now complete global financial war against Russia.

But many are also pointing to the big risks associated with deploying the instruments of economic warfare at such massive scale.

Second and a consequence of the first, is the national macroeconomic consequence of war.

In short, Russia's financial sector...

...currency...

....and key industries...

...are being devastated.

This is what economists would call a "shock" (though it's definitely NOT an "exogenous" one) to the Russian economy....

nationalreview.com/the-morning-jo…
...and it is already having an impact on Russian society.

nytimes.com/2022/02/26/wor…
Of course, given where the fighting is taking place, the macroeconomic consequences of the war's destruction for Ukraine will be severe and lasting.

france24.com/en/video/20220…
Third, the war's economic impact is not limited to the direct participants. It is global.

The costs include...
...the financial sanctions generating financial hardship for the countries imposing them (after all, that's how economic sanctions work)...

...global grain supply chains being severely disrupted...

nytimes.com/2022/02/25/wor…
...oil markets being squeezed...

reuters.com/business/energ…
...inflation rising globally...

bbc.com/news/business-…
...the list can go on and on. I HIGHLY recommend that folks follow @adam_tooze to keep track of all of the global economic developments.

A key consequence of this global disruption is something that has occurred time and time and time again in the face of global crises (see, most recently, the outbreak of COVID19): strengthening of the US dollar (the true marker of US global hegemony).

Fourth and related to the impact the war has on oil, the war also illustrates the broader link between oil and war.

Namely, that oil wealth can lead to war.

@JeffDColgan has written extensively on this link...

amazon.com/Petro-Aggressi…
...and we're witnessing the oil price-war onset link in full effect.

Fifth, there is the "sinew of war": money. Wars cannot be fought if they are not financed.
The Ukrainian government recognized this immediately, with @NBUkraine setting up a special account to accept "financial donations".

bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/za…
Indeed, the money has been coming in from numerous sources.

aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28…
For instance, the United States was already contributing financial assistance to Ukraine, but has increased the assistance dramatically

state.gov/additional-mil…
What is notable is how the war is sparking other countries to reassess how much THEY spend on defense, particularly Germany:

That financing and spending are so critical to war fighting is why the latest edition of the text "What do We Know About War" (edited by @sbmitche & John Vasquez) includes a chapter on war financing by @rosellacappella & 🙋‍♂️.

amazon.com/What-Do-Know-a…
Sixth, the money raised is used to purchase weapons. That leads to yet another, and often underappreciated, economic aspect of war: supply.
To be clear, military professionals do not underappreciate supply. They take it VERY seriously. As the saying goes, "Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics."

What is notable is that the war is a massive COALITIONAL supply effort, with the arms are arriving from other countries and making their way to the battlefield.

The arms (what they call "pratical support") are coming from @NATO countries...

nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
...and, quite shockingly, from the European Union.

politico.eu/article/eu-ukr…
In sum, to understand war, both fighting and outcomes, you have to understand economics. That has never been more evident than in this war.

[END]

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
Sep 7
Which of these two men is most responsible for World War II?

Short answer: not Churchill

Long answer: [THREAD]
Image
Image
To be clear, in this thread I am dealing with the onset of the war in Europe. The War in Asia was just as important and obviously connected to Europe. But that is for another thread. For now, I do highly recommend Paine's book "The Wars for Asia"

amazon.com/Wars-Asia-1911…
The historiography on WWII is massive. But in terms of responsibility for the war's origins, there are essentially two extreme views.

Call them the Mueller Thesis and the Taylor Thesis
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Aug 17
Solving the "Europe Problem" has vexed US foreign policy since the beginning.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote last week, a key trait of US "grand strategy" since the founding of the Republic was "Go West" either by expanding US territory west or seeking to maintain trade with China.

But the other key trait of US grand strategy has been to keep the European powers from standing in the way.
Read 14 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Aug 10
Since the founding of the republic, US foreign policy has been about one thing:

Go west (and don't let Europe get in the way).

[THREAD] Image
I'll write more about "don't let Europe get in the way" in another 🧵. This one will focus on the "Go west" part (which will also touch on the Europe part).
One could go so far as to argue that the Republic itself was founded because of a desire to go west. Specifically, the colonials were forbidden to go west of the 1763 Proclamation line. Image
Read 20 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 15
When you hear "Liberal International Order", just think "the G-7, for better and for worse"

[THREAD] Image
While some scholars and policy makers like to speak of the "Liberal International Order" as the collection of post-World War II international institutions....
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
...the phrase itself is much more recent in origins, largely a product of the mid-1990s. Image
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 8
Are the "opportunity costs" of arming Ukraine too high?

Short answer: no

Long answer: compared to what?

[THREAD]
For those not aware, I am asking this question because of a new International Affairs piece that makes the argument "yes, they are too high"

academic.oup.com/ia/advance-art…
Overall, their argument is that the resources going towards Ukraine would be better allocated to address other pressing global challenges.
Read 24 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 1
In international politics, population is destiny.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote in my latest for @WPReview, shifting patterns in population growth will inevitably influence international politics.
worldpoliticsreview.com/global-demogra…
This isn't a new idea. It's one found in classic works on change in world politics.

amazon.com/War-Change-Wor…
Read 14 tweets

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