Ruth Deyermond Profile picture
Mar 1, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A short thread on the war and where we are with the Russian government’s goals of re-writing the European security order to reflect a weakened West and a stronger Russia.
To recap, in the last week, the Russian government has:
Launched an unprovoked invasion of the whole of Ukraine for no obvious reason;
Embarrassed itself militarily;
Caused NATO and the EU to unite as they haven’t done for years, if ever before;
Caused Germany to overturn 75 years of post-WW2 defence policy;
Caused Switzerland to break with 200 years of neutrality;
Caused Finland to debate joining NATO;
Caused neutral Sweden to send lethal aid to Ukraine;
Triggered crippling sanctions, which currently appear to be sending the Russian economy back to the 1990s;
Caused Nord Stream 2 to be cancelled;
Caused Western energy companies to walk away from Russian partners;
Caused a rethink of the energy relationship with Russia by European states – a critical relationship for the Russian economy;
Been shut out of most of Europe’s airspace;
Annoyed the oligarchs;
Got Russia kicked out of Eurovision, the World Cup, and international ice hockey;
Triggered an ICC war crimes investigation;
Triggered significant domestic protests, despite the great costs to the people involved in them;
Caused the EU Parliament to recommend accepting Ukraine as an accession candidate
Caused widespread discussion about Putin’s mental health;
Transformed a former comedian and Paddington voiceover from a not very popular president to a global icon of courage and resistance;
United countless people around the world in admiration of Ukraine.

But apart from that, it’s all been a great success.
I missed this out. Another triumph: Image

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More from @ruth_deyermond

Apr 8
Term 2 Trump foreign policy - from tariffs to NATO to soft power to China and Russia - is an epic mess. One reason seems to be that the administration is operating with two conflicting, equally flawed, views of the world and the US's place in it. 🧵
Trump administration policy is partly grounded in a worldview in which the US is one of several great powers, each with its own sphere of influence, but also in a view of the US as the unconstrained unipole.
The Trump administration talks about seeing the world as if it's 1892 while trying to party like it's 1992 - or 2002.
Read 21 tweets
Mar 22
Absolutely agree with Amb. Fried that this is very damaging - to the US's credibility and national interest. But the idea that this will damage the US position in talks with Russia suggests that these are genuine negotiations. I really don't think they are. 🧵
Everything we can hear and see and everything we know about the dominant figures in the Trump administration indicates that the talks are being seen as a mechanism for building an informal US-Russia alliance. Attempting to carve up Ukraine is part of how this is being done.
As I've said before, it looks very much as if the peace deal that the Trump administration is trying to negotiate with the Kremlin is between the US and Russia, not Russia and Ukraine. For them, Ukraine seems to be entirely expendable. So does the rest of Europe.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 7
“Do you still believe [Putin] when he tells you he wants peace?” Trump: “You know, I believe him, I believe him, I think we’re doing very well with Russia […] I’m finding it more difficult, frankly to deal with Ukraine.” 🧵
Trump’s claim he’s “strongly considering” sanctions against Russia needs to be viewed in the context of this comment and the many other similar things he's said in the past. Penalising Russia is not something he's ever wanted to do, whatever Russia has done.
Maybe the Trump team decided they need to give the impression Trump isn't as pro-Russian as he's now widely seen to be (though they're obviously happy for the whole admin to sound anti-Ukrainian). But as soon as you get Trump in front of a camera, he'll say this sort of thing.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 28
This is a generally excellent thread, but this is not correct as far as Russia is concerned - Trump has been highly consistent in his approach to Russia since before his 1st term (though the approach isn't internally coherent). 🧵
Trump has *always* spoken and acted as if, in his words, "getting along with Russia" is one of his foreign policy priorities. This is not something on which he has ever changed position, and there is no reason to think he will do so now or in the future.
In term 1, his ability to improve relations with Russia - by giving the Kremlin what it wanted - was limited by his own foreign policy/defence appointees often having a very different view from him, and by Congress (e.g. Congress passing CAATSA to stop him lifting sanctions).
Read 20 tweets
Feb 14
Lots of talk about "spheres of influence" in the context of the Trump admin's novel approach to foreign policy and their apparent plan to hand some/all of Ukraine to Russia, which is very keen on the "spheres of influence" idea. It's a non-starter for both Russia and the US 🧵
The idea that an International Liberal Order - much hated by Russia and others, though always more of an aspiration than a reality - can be replaced by a return to 19th century great power politics, where the US, Russia, and China carve up the world between them, is delusional.
One reason there isn't going to be a new international order grounded in spheres of influence is because the US government is currently doing absolutely everything in its power to kill off its own sphere of influence.
Read 20 tweets
Feb 13
"Over 4 years [of Trump's presidency], there was no Russian aggression." Er, not quite. 🧵
Throughout Trump's 1st term, Russian aggression continued in Eastern Ukraine, killing hundreds of civilians and hundreds, maybe thousands, of Ukrainian soldiers defending their country. @OKhromeychuk's brother was killed during Trump's time in office. Image
What did Trump say about the ongoing Russian aggression in Eastern Ukraine in his 1st term? Nothing. He never, in his entire 1st term in office acknowledged the fact that Russia was committing crimes in Ukraine.
Read 17 tweets

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