We need to stop for moment and take stock of the abject evisceration of the Russian commercial aircraft fleet and airline market that is currently taking place.
Prior to the sanctions, Russia had one of the most active domestic aviation operations, a global highlight in an otherwise ailing airline market with the two-year pandemic. The market was actually ABOVE 2019 levels of traffic last summer.
Both Airbus and Boeing have announced suspension of parts and services to the Russian fleet, effectively cutting off maintenance support to Russian airlines. Local airlines have some capability to service their own, but they will quickly become paperweights.
Even its homegrown Sukhoi Superjet, a regional jet, was developed with western suppliers and its engine is French & Russian. In 2009, to grow its international market appeal, it turned to @LHTechnik for its parts distribution to support its fleet. That's dead now.
Even if Russian airlines could get support for the fleet, those airlines have costs that are denominated in dollars (like now terminated leases) while their revenues are in massively devalued rubles. An acute financial crisis looms for these airlines.
The clock on the entire Russian airline industry has just been set back to 1991.
There’s likely one final action that can level, instantly, Russian commercial aviation. That’s Sabre, the IT backbone on which Aeroflot runs. No Sabre, no reservations. No reservations, no airline.
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