Been trying to get my head around what is happening in the Ukrainian War, as it represents something different than we have seen before. This is my first group of thoughts, so probably deeply flawed, but I think what we are seeing should be called: Semi-Symmetric Warfare.
It’s not a counter insurgency/insurgency war, though it is between what would be thought of as asymmetric forces. However what we seen to be seeing is an effort by the Ukrainians to erase the asymmetry. In many ways very successfully so far.
War has certainly become even more technological in the last century, and that has led to problems that the Russians are experiencing. The most advanced systems are actually very complex. Requiring great expertise, flexibility, advanced training and in some ways decentralisation
What the Ukrainians are doing is taking advantage of this complexity to keep Russia from benefiting as it should from its more modern military forces. You take advantage of the difficulty that they clearly have in maintaining air control not through direct engagement
With fixed win aircraft, but countering with lots of drones throughout the area (many which the Russians can’t obviously track) and handheld anti-air to keep Russia from benefiting fully from its fixed wing aircraft.
Likewise in semisymmetric warfare having lots of heavy AFVs are not important (maybe an impediment) but lots or mobile forces capable of degrading logistics and some Russian AFVs is crucial as it keeps the Russians from fully utilising combined arms
It’s not insurgency warfare as it’s not hit and run. It’s more offensive than that with significant moments or standing and fighting. But It is aimed at specific weaknesses in coordination of the most complex Russian systems.
It does require significant state planning; excellent almost real time intelligence, and access to large stores of high quality equipment, larger than a normal insurgency could expect.
However what the Ukrainians are showing that a state can directly engage what looks to be a much more powerful state using semi-symmetric warfare to cause enormous disruption quickly.
It also means that you don’t need to think about guerilla/insurgency wars lasting for years and years, but semi symmetric wars that can become quickly too difficult for the advanced power.
Hopefully this concept might make even more advanced powers reluctant to make the stupid choice to go to war.
Thoughts on semi-symmetric warfare appreciated.
More and more evidence of the Ukrainians being able to disrupt or take advantage of the inability of the Russians to mount complex modern operations. Something is happening here rusi.org/explore-our-re…
A key element of semi symmetric warfare (maybe Compensated Asymmetric is better?) is to have large stores of the right equipment to disrupt the more complex systems of the more technologically advanced power. It’s clear what some of them are now. nytimes.com/2022/03/04/us/…
And effective UAVs of course. I wonder if UAVs. Stingers and Javelins are actually more useful now to the Ukrainians than traditional fixed wing aircraft being rushed in?
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The @CSIS Interpret China resource has assembled a number of very interesting sources on how the Chinese state is thinking about and reacting to the Russo-Ukraine War. It is a really helpful one-stop shop that anyone interested in the subject should examine.interpret.csis.org
One report. by a leading Chinese scholar, talks about how Russia is trying to recalibrate its global relationships, and how the Chinese-Russian alliance, while strong, is no longer the "limitless" partnerships that was proclaimed before the invasion. interpret.csis.org/translations/t…
Another really interesting Chinese analysis looks at 2024, and argues that after the US election, there might be a push for a peace deal. Also tries to think about the future development of warfare, and how China can adjust to a battlefield full of masses of cheap UAVs interpret.csis.org/translations/a…
And the battle lines have (at least temporarily) stabilized after all the doom and gloom of the last few weeks. No great Russian breakthroughs and exploitations, some small, incremental advances at very high cost. With Ukraine getting more ammunition, Russian losses might even rise.
UK Intelligence estimates 465000 Russian casualties so far--an staggering figure. The Russians are generating soldiers, but losing them at an astounding clip. The disregard of the Russian leadership for their own people is one reason Ukraine must win.
Actually, UK intelligence estimates OVER 465,000 Russian casualties--fighting just Ukraine. This is one of the most futile military campaigns in modern history.
Hi All, just sent out this piece on the brutally simple lesson that we have seen in the last few days, one that Europe must learn from and prepare for immediately if the continent is not to be the plaything of nuclear powers.
Non-nuclear Ukraine has been made to suffer at the hands of a nuclear power. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen to the continent as a whole.
People talking about relying on the U.K. and France’s nuclear forces don’t get it. That will be an inevitable short term reality, but it’s not a long term plan. Both are national and both governments could be unreliable in the future. What happens if the National Front takes power in France? Nigel Farage and Dominic Cummings have been likewise Russian sympathisers in the U.K.
The Polish government now saying that they can conceive of NATO forces in Ukraine. War is a dynamic process and can lead to dramatic changes--its amazing that so many people cannot see that such a development is becoming more and more possible.
Also important to see @sikorskiradek challenge Russian reflexive control. This is about European states saying to Russia that we dont accept the security paradigm you are trying to impose. Make Russia worry more. This is exactly what I said 4 days ago.
Just sent out an update on the chance of European intervention for Ukraine, motivated by the deliberate statements of @EmmanuelMacron People who discount European intervention for Ukraine do not understand war. The longer they go on, the bloodier they become...
the more state's contemplate actions that previously they never thought possible. As Russia slaughters hundreds of thousands and the war drags on, it is increasing the chances of intervention. Only a fool would deny that--and Macron is no fool
An example of what is being contemplated. The Baltics, for one, have to take any abandonment of Ukraine by the USA as a huge threat to themselves.
Trump’s admission yesterday that he would be happy to encourage Putin to attack Europe should and all hopes that somehow the Republican Party is salvageable. As such I wrote a piece that the Dems should take 2 bold steps now to reach out to sane Repubs. substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_…
Like FDR in 1940, in the Face of isolationists who were sympathetic to Hitler, the Dems should name two internationalist Republicans to the Cabinet. Second, they need to consider a unity ticket in 2024. Think Michelle Obama and Adam Kinzinger.