Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M Profile picture
Mar 2, 2022 13 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The (unconfirmed) news that a Russian warship had been hit and sunk near Odesa are actually not surprising. In contrary to Russian Army which is capable to win amid huge losses, Russian Navy is traditionally not capable even to that. Its history is a history of defeats (THREAD)
According to RU historical tradition, RU Navy was founded by Peter I, an admirer of the West and the founder of Petersburg. He invested huge money and manpower in fleet, but its most famous victory remains Gangut battle: 99 RU ships v 9 SWE (sic!) The fleet has rotten after Peter
Later 18th early 19th, RU fleet tried to compete on the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Admiral Ushakov was pretty effective against TURK fleet. Still, RU gains on the Black Sea were not to protected agains world powers. Amid Crimean war 1854, RU just sunk own fleet in Sevastopol.
Actually, Russian tradition to sink own warships in Sevastopol remained very vivid. Soviet Navy sunk own ships in Sevastopol in 1941, what makes Russian Sevastopol fleet the top one worldwide for the number of own ships destroyed.
But let us go back to 19th century. Russian warships were not modern, crews were ill-trained. As Russian-Japanese war 1905 started, Russians believed, Japanese are a "lower race", and sent its fleet from the Baltic to Japan. The convoy came to Japan in terrible condition.
Russian guns could not reach Japanese ships which had long-range guns. Japanese aiming optic was better. Russian fleet was erased. Russia lost 21 warship, 5000+ seamen KIA, 6000+ POW. Japanese lost 3 ships and 117 KIA. This defeat was one of the reasons for the Russian revolution
(Actually, one of the ships from this group which stayed in Petersburg, had turned to a hotspot of revolutionary ideas and was crucial for the revolution. But this is a remark).
Amid WWII, Soviet fleet remained mostly inactive. Black sea fleet was sunk by own crews. Baltic fleet was blocked in harbor and could not operate. Soviet submarines first left Baltic sea in Spring 1945, untrained and angry. 2 biggest wins of them are 2 German hospital ships.
Both vessels were sunk by Alexander Marinesko, who wrongly believed he attacks warships. Over 9000 refugees and wounded persons died. Marinesko was called a here all the years (and until now) because Soviet Navy did not have any effective commanders, in contrary to Army or AirF.
The history of modern Russian fleet is well-known. The Kursk submarine tragedy tops all the cases of incapability of Navy commanders in the modern history. 118 seamen died on Kursk. Many believe, the submarine was hit by a missile shot from "Pyotr Velyky" cruiser amid drills.
So - no, I am not surprised, if Russia has really lost another ship today. END
*a hero
PS regarding Marinesko: in Petersburg the "Russian Submarine Fleet Museum" is named after Marinesko. The guy, whose two only victories were two unprotected regugees/hospital vessels. Because, as said above, they have nobody who would be better: музеймаринеско.рф

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More from @sumlenny

Jun 1
Tu-95 strategic bombers, destroyed en mass today by Ukraine's FPV drones, are not only a backbone of russia's aviation. Tu-95 was designed in 1950s, with its NK-12 engines created by a Nazi SS colonel Ferdinand Brandner, a POW in the USSR. It is a flying diesel punk Nazi crap ⬇️ Image
Brandner was a Nazi engine designer, taken by the Soviets. He started to work for another genocidal regime, and has created the NK-12 engine, until today the largest turboprop engine. After his release in 1955, Brandner worked for antisemitic Egypt and for communist China. ⬇️
Tu-95 remains the only reliable plane for the russians, as it can carry a necessary payload of multiple cruise missiles (as many missiles fail by start, and 70-80% get shot down by Ukrainian AirDefense, russia depends on massive launches, so Tu-160 or Tu-22M cannot do this job)⬇️
Read 4 tweets
May 26
A brilliant Ukrainian scholar Valery Pekar nails it: as @realDonaldTrump says, #Putin went crazy, smth happened to him, he started killing people, this marks a core Western delusion about russia: "they are organically democratic and good, the current war is just a deviation". ⬇️
Too many Western decision takers, thinkers, multiplicators believe that russia is basically a democratic culture with great culture, and any terror phase is a sort of a "mental disease", a deviation which can be healed (for instance, by removing Putin and installing Navalny).⬇️
In reality, the opposite is true: being a genocidal empire is a natural, healthy condition for russia. The concept of russia was created in the 1700s exactly as a borderless, perpetually expanding body, built on terror. It can mimic democratic institutions but never adopts them⬇️
Read 5 tweets
Apr 15
THREAD What we witness now from the White House, is a clear smearing campaign aimed not only at @ZelenskyyUa but on Ukraine at whole. Zelensky is being used as a target, but with a goal to weaken Ukraine in whole, and to strengthen Moscow. Let me explain: 👇 Image
President @ZelenskyyUa was verbally attacked by President Trump many times, with the following four main accusation lines:
a) Zelensky is ungrateful
b) Zelensky is corrupt
c) Zelensky is a dictator
d) Zelensky has started the war / is interested in war.
Nothing is true. 2/x👇
@ZelenskyyUa President Zelensky has thanked the U.S. people dozens of times for the help provided. "Corruption" is a typical russian lie, used also by russia-friendly voices, who claimed with no proves that Ukraine-delivered arms were "stolen". But let us address other accusations 3/x👇 Image
Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 14
Some thoughts on recent russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities
1) russia is facing a huge and growing problem with its offensive slowing down, unsustainably high losses, and even some Ukrainian counter-offensive in Pokrovsk region;
2) russia uses two tactics to counter it:👇
3) First, russia starts "negotiations". The goal is to slow Ukraine down, to limit Ukrainian striking freedom (ban Ukrainian strikes on the Black Sea navy, on russian oil refineries etc.), while accumulating military power;
4) Second, russia increases PsyOps against Ukraine. 👇
4.1) russia's missile strikes on Ukraine's cities are demonstratively brutal: ballistic missiles with cluster munition warheads aiming civilians' gatherings, incl. children playgrounds;
4.2) at the same time, russia spreads false info that they have targeted military personnel👇
Read 6 tweets
Mar 3
THREAD: Ok, let us have a sober look at the U.S. - Ukraine - Russia - EU constellation. First: the U.S. - Ukraine agreement was not necessary for Ukraine. It was not necessary for the U.S. as well. It was necessary only for Trump, therefore he is vulnerable. Let me explain. /1
The "agreement" didn't provide Ukraine with anything. It was aimed on payment for the U.S. from Ukraine (and practically allowed the U.S. to mine Ukrainian resources on Russia-occupied lands). Trump needed it to prove that he is a great dealer. But why did Ukraine need it? /2
The agreement did not foresee any U.S. military support, guarantees, even "commitments". Ukraine paid retrospective for what they have got for free. So for Ukraine, it was a pure cost factor, for Trump - pure profit factor. And he needed it asap. Therefore - he was vulnerable. /3
Read 8 tweets
Jan 26
In four weeks, Feb. 23rd, Germany will have preliminary elections. In this THREAD I will try to explain what it is about, who would probably win, where are bottlenecks, and what it means for the world and for Ukraine. /1 ⬇️ Image
First, we need to understand: German electoral system is designed to dilute votes. No job higher than a city mayor gets elected directly. The reason is the Nazi past: no politician may claim being elected by the PEOPLE. So people vote for parties, and they name politicians. /2⬇️
So people vote for parties, and parties need 50%+1 vote to name a head of a region, or a chancellor. Normally, no party gets over 50%, so a coalition is needed (on a federal level, conservatives from the CDU under Adenauer have got 50,2% in 1957, but still formed a coalition)/3⬇️ Image
Read 28 tweets

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