The (unconfirmed) news that a Russian warship had been hit and sunk near Odesa are actually not surprising. In contrary to Russian Army which is capable to win amid huge losses, Russian Navy is traditionally not capable even to that. Its history is a history of defeats (THREAD)
According to RU historical tradition, RU Navy was founded by Peter I, an admirer of the West and the founder of Petersburg. He invested huge money and manpower in fleet, but its most famous victory remains Gangut battle: 99 RU ships v 9 SWE (sic!) The fleet has rotten after Peter
Later 18th early 19th, RU fleet tried to compete on the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Admiral Ushakov was pretty effective against TURK fleet. Still, RU gains on the Black Sea were not to protected agains world powers. Amid Crimean war 1854, RU just sunk own fleet in Sevastopol.
Actually, Russian tradition to sink own warships in Sevastopol remained very vivid. Soviet Navy sunk own ships in Sevastopol in 1941, what makes Russian Sevastopol fleet the top one worldwide for the number of own ships destroyed.
But let us go back to 19th century. Russian warships were not modern, crews were ill-trained. As Russian-Japanese war 1905 started, Russians believed, Japanese are a "lower race", and sent its fleet from the Baltic to Japan. The convoy came to Japan in terrible condition.
Russian guns could not reach Japanese ships which had long-range guns. Japanese aiming optic was better. Russian fleet was erased. Russia lost 21 warship, 5000+ seamen KIA, 6000+ POW. Japanese lost 3 ships and 117 KIA. This defeat was one of the reasons for the Russian revolution
(Actually, one of the ships from this group which stayed in Petersburg, had turned to a hotspot of revolutionary ideas and was crucial for the revolution. But this is a remark).
Amid WWII, Soviet fleet remained mostly inactive. Black sea fleet was sunk by own crews. Baltic fleet was blocked in harbor and could not operate. Soviet submarines first left Baltic sea in Spring 1945, untrained and angry. 2 biggest wins of them are 2 German hospital ships.
Both vessels were sunk by Alexander Marinesko, who wrongly believed he attacks warships. Over 9000 refugees and wounded persons died. Marinesko was called a here all the years (and until now) because Soviet Navy did not have any effective commanders, in contrary to Army or AirF.
The history of modern Russian fleet is well-known. The Kursk submarine tragedy tops all the cases of incapability of Navy commanders in the modern history. 118 seamen died on Kursk. Many believe, the submarine was hit by a missile shot from "Pyotr Velyky" cruiser amid drills.
So - no, I am not surprised, if Russia has really lost another ship today. END
*a hero
PS regarding Marinesko: in Petersburg the "Russian Submarine Fleet Museum" is named after Marinesko. The guy, whose two only victories were two unprotected regugees/hospital vessels. Because, as said above, they have nobody who would be better: музеймаринеско.рф
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A large number of genuine Ukrainian accounts I follow on different social media (and in many cases I personally know people behind them) are looking positively towards Trump's presidency, and see him as a hope for any true action. This shows how much Biden has pissed off Ukraine.
I stress: I don't say if Trump is good or bad. I say: many Ukrainians who risk their life daily, many at the front, are glad that Biden's team leaves the stage. They are well aware of Trump's ambiguity, and of what he & his team said about 🇺🇦 or Putin. Still they are relieved.
Biden's team went to this catastrophe deliberately and for years. From Ukraine's hero who has provided Ukraine with Javelins - to a pity old delusional man who is afraid of the might of the country he runs.
THREAD The real problem in communication btw Ukraine and its allies is the total lack of a common post-war world vision ➡️ the lack of a common goal. 🇺🇦 goal is to guarantee survival of the 🇺🇦 state AND of 🇺🇦nation, AND to achieve sustainable security for them in the future. 1/8
This goal is impossible to achieve without a full military defeat of Russia, and either significant demilitarization of Russia, or a significant increase of Ukraine’s military capacities, including gigantic long-range strike capacities (cruise missiles and Air Force). 2/8
The Western goal is different. While it’s not aimed against Ukraine per se
and would even welcome Ukraine’s survival, first of all it is aimed at prevention of Russia’s uncontrolled collapse, which associates with global risks (while Ukraine’s defeat is seen as a local risk). 3/8
I have just return from a very interesting NATO conference in Yerevan, Armenia. As much as the conference was amazing, the contrast to practically Russia-occupied country was grotesque. Lots of signs of Russia’s dominance: from cinema Moscow to purely Russian advertising /1
Russian plates on luxury cars, Russian announcements regarding the Eurasian Economic Union in the airport, Russian business lounges, tasteless Russian ad of “Crude Oil Vodka” /2
I felt absolutely unsafe every minute outside of the group. The level of subordination is crazy. Russian flags even on sweets shops, and even “Armenian-Chinese Friendship Society” addresses people in Russian (!) not in Armenian or Chinese. /3
The event at Germany’s army academy @FueAkBwHH has started. Ukraine‘s honorary consul Iryna Tybinka: Ukrainians are tired, but everyone understands: we have no choice but to fight. Those who demand a sort of cease fire, or stop of arms delivery, demand our death. /1
Marcus @MarcusFaber: Ukrainians defend us all with their fight, we need to be thankful. I visit Ukraine regularly, have been five times in Ukraine, and speak with civilians and NGOs, they know why they fight. /2
@MarcusFaber Hendrik Remmel from #GIDS: Ukraine is in strategic defensive since a year, its army's challenges are the same. First of all the lack of manpower. Ukraine needs tanks, IFVs, other equipment, to achieve dominance vs. Russia, as Russia's strategy is now: "we hold longer than UA". /3
A marvelous explosion of a Russian ammunition depot in Toropets, Tver region, north-west from Moscow, after a Ukrainian drone has hit it last night.
More video from this morning in Russian #Tver region where an ammunition depot has been demilitarized by a Ukrainian drone.
International seismic stations have recorded up to 15 massive explosions equivalent to earthquakes of 2.0 to 3.2 magnitude, likely related to secondary explosions in a Russian Toropets ammunition depot in Tver region, hit last night by a Ukrainian drone.
Why does the @POTUS administration effectively support Russia in this war? It’s not because they like Putin (like Trump does). The reason is different (but makes no difference in the result) 1) Biden’s team thinks in categories of red lines. This means, a superpower has core… /1
…interests. Everything outside of them is just spare change. But core interests may not be violated. If they do, the very existence of the superpower is threatened, and it goes into survival rage mode. 2) Biden’s delusional team thinks, Ukraine is not a core thing for Russia /2
They falsely believe, Ukraine war for Russia is something like Vietnam war for the U.S. Russia has its interests, but as soon as Russia starts suffering too high price, it will pull back. Because Ukraine is not Russia’s core interest. But IF the Ukrainians hit Russia’s core… /3