Gabriel Noronha Profile picture
Mar 2, 2022 29 tweets 7 min read Read on X
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11. It’s important to note that the Supreme Leaders Office EO was not at all related to Iran’s nuclear program, and the removal of these sanctions under a so-called nuclear deal is a ridiculous farce. The State Department’s lawyers know better but were forced into this by Malley
12.Our lawyers were clear when we released this EO: it was a response to actions by Iran & its proxies to destabilize the Middle East, promote international terrorism, advance Iran’s ballistic missile program, & Iran’s attack against U.S. military assets + civilian vehicles. Image
13.There’s much more: sanctions will be lifted on huge swaths of the regime’s economic and financial arms (close to 40 major entities) that support the Iranian terror, repression, and WMD infrastructure and were sanctioned under those legal authorities.
14.For example, they are lifting sanctions on economic arms of the Mehr Eqtesad network and Bonyad Taavon Basij which directly funds the Basij Resistance Force that recruits and trains child soldiers forced into combat. You can read about them here: home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
15.The U.S. is not lifting sanctions on the Basij (responsible for killing thousands of Iranian protesters) itself, because the Iranians didn’t care – they just wanted sanctions on the funding mechanisms lifted because that’s what actually matters. Malley obliged.
16.These sanctions are also not related to Iran’s nuclear program, but we’re about to lift sanctions on them anyways. These are not “inconsistent with the JCPOA” as Blinken and Malley claim – they targeted the institutions that kill thousands of innocent Iranians and Arabs.
17.More: Every individual and entity that was de-sanctioned under the JCPOA’s Annex II Attachment 3 will have all sanctions stripped again, EVEN THOUGH close to 100 of them were later sanctioned for terrorism, human rights violations, and participation in Iran’s WMD activities.
18.Take Ghavamin Bank for example. It was sanctioned under human rights authorities in November 2018 for involvement supporting the Iranian Law Enforcement Forces that tortured and drowned Afghans. That won’t matter anymore – they’ll be free from sanctions.
19.Same for Sepah Bank, sanctioned in 2007 as “the financial linchpin of Iran’s missile procurement network.” That first sanction was lifted by the JCPOA, but Sepah was later sanctioned for their support of the Iranian Ministry of Defense. Now, both sanctions would be lifted.
20.The JCPOA lifted sanctions on the Attachment 3 list under the guise that they were nuclear-related sanctions. But now, Malley and co. are effectively trying to codify their permanent exemption from sanctions even if they are complicit in gross violations of human rights.
21.This is akin to criminal prosecution. The Attachment 3 lists were all previously indicted for nuclear “crimes”. But a bunch of them later committed human rights and terrorism “crimes” and were sanctioned accordingly. But now Malley is giving them a full-on pardon.
22.Sanctions will also be lifted on the Central Bank of Iran and the National Development Fund, which were sanctioned under counterterrorism authorities for providing billions of dollars to the IRGC, the Qods Force, and Hizballah. These organizations STILL fund terrorism.
23.The CBI and NDF were sanctioned after Iran brazenly attacked Saudi Arabia in September 2019 in the attacks on Saudi Aramco in an act of war. Again, these sanctions are not related to Iran’s nuclear program – they are about terrorism. More here: home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
24.Also to be lifted: sanctions on the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) that fund the Qods Force, responsible for killing hundreds of thousands of Syrians and for the death of at least 603 Americans in Iraq from 2003-2011. Image
25.NIOC and NITC were sanctioned under counterterrorism authorities approved by interagency career lawyers, including from DOJ and Treasury. Why? Because they were involved in the funding of terrorism. They never stopped that activity, but sanctions are still getting lifted.
26.The @StateDept has no legal basis to rescind the sanctions on the Central Bank, NDF, NIOC or NITC as they still continue to support terrorism. To remove those sanctions, you typically have to prove they aren’t supporting terror. They can’t. In other words, this is all illegal
27.Speaking of lawyers, State’s lawyers are said to be working on “very creative” ways to try and bypass Congress’ right to review (or even see the deal) under INARA. The political appointees working this deal are said to strongly distain Congress and view them as a nuisance.
28.Perhaps most troubling is Malley’s attempt to remove sanctions on the IRGC. Malley was initially rebuffed by the interagency after he tried to get them to let him offer the removal of IRGC sanctions to the Iranians. That hasn’t stopped him.
29.Malley has proposed to the Iranians that the U.S. will remove the IRGC from the Foreign Terrorist Organization list & sanctions if the Iranians simply promise to talk to the United States in new negotiations about their “regional activity” (aka terrorism).
30.This is one of the last issues still on the table in Vienna. The Iranians apparently have not accepted Malley’s offer, because they want an unconditional removal of the IRGC’s FTO designation. But even if the Iranians caved, we’d still be removing the IRGC sanctions!
31.Over the past four decades, the IRGC has plotted and carried out terrorist attacks in 35 countries, and they continue to do so today. As Pompeo disclosed last year, they are currently providing safe haven and logistical support for Al-Qaeda in Iran. 2017-2021.state.gov/designation-of…
32.For all these concessions, we haven’t gotten anything at all from the Iranians. The JCPOA’s sunsets have not been extended at all. Some restrictions, like the UN arms embargo, have already expired. All the meaningful restrictions will expire in the next 9 years. Image
33.Iran won’t make any concessions on its ballistic missile activity, its terrorist activity and support for proxy groups, or taking further hostages from the United States and other countries. But it will get money anyways – lots and lots of money.
34.Iran is set to get a massive windfall in access to cash: the latest estimate is $90 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and then $50-55 billion in extra revenue each year from higher oil/petrochemical exports, with no restrictions on where it’ll be spent. Image
32.For all these concessions, we haven’t gotten anything at all from the Iranians. The JCPOA’s sunsets have not been extended at all. Some restrictions, like the UN arms embargo, have already expired. All the meaningful restrictions will expire in the next 9 years. Image
33.Iran won’t make any concessions on its ballistic missile activity, its terrorist activity and support for proxy groups, or taking further hostages from the United States and other countries. But it will get money anyways – lots and lots of money.
34.Iran is set to get a massive windfall in access to cash: the latest estimate is $90 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and then $50-55 billion in extra revenue each year from higher oil/petrochemical exports, with no restrictions on where it’ll be spent. Image
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More from @GLNoronha

Oct 18, 2023
#BREAKING: UN Sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone program have just now expired (7pm ET, 12am GMT).

Iran can now legally buy an ICBM from China or sell missiles/drones to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Russia.
Thanks to the 2015 Iran Deal, huge swaths of international sanctions on Iran have just ended. All UN sanctions on Iran will expire permanently two years from now.

Europe and Biden must start doing their job and snapback the sanctions.
jinsa.org/wp-content/upl…
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Russia releases a statement rejoicing the lifting of UN sanctions on Iran:

“The plans of the Anglo-Saxons and EU members to justify their unlawful actions by escalating the imaginary Iranian threat and shifting responsibility for the fate of the JCPOA to Tehran are futile.”


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Read 5 tweets
Oct 15, 2023
Ok let's talk about what "Iranian sleeper cells" in the US look like.

This July 2022 video shows 100s of children singing an ode to Qassem Soleimani & Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei with lyrics "I will be your soldier, I will be your martyr."

It's not Tehran, it's Houston.🧵
The "Islamic Education Center" of Houston hides under the guise of a religious institution.

To be clear, it's not about Islam - it's about advancing Iranian propaganda. That's why they host an annual commemoration of Ruhollah Khomeini - the founder of the Iranian regime. Image
They've been hosting these days at least since 2013, when their website noted there were parallel "celebrations" in Detroit/Dearborn, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, and Los Angeles.

At these celebrations, you have Khomeini quote readings like this one.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 15, 2023
I'm not so sure Iran wants Hezbollah to launch against Israel (right now).

The most valuable function Hezbollah provides Iran is a conventional deterrent against Israeli strikes on its nuclear program: if Israeli strikes Iran, Hezbollah launches 150,000 rockets/missiles. (1/7)
Image
2. North Korea has 6,000 artillery systems within range of South Korea's population centers, allowing them to decimate Seoul in hours of any U.S. strike on DPRK's nukes. That's a major reason we never attacked North Korea.

Iran wants the same deterrent.
rand.org/pubs/research_…
3. While Iran has the region's largest ballistic missile inventory at over 3,000, a significant number cannot fly the ~1,000km to Israeli targets.

Those that can are very powerful but not quite enough to fully deter Israel on its own or completely destroy their missile defenses. Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 10, 2023
🧵Joe, this is misleading to say the least.

Here's the truth about those accounts - they were mandated under Section 1245 of the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act signed into law by Obama.

The sanctions were designed so that as we cut Iran's oil export volume...(1/x)
2) The price of oil wouldn't spike as we took supply off the markets. Yes, that was for US customers, but it was also to keep Iranian revenue limited since revenue = price*volume.

And it cushioned our allies by not spiking their supplies too rapidly. And we took two MILLION...
3) barrels of oil off the global markets in ONE year - Biden hasn't been able to get a fraction of Russian oil off the markets because he kneecapped domestic oil production.

The law that Congress (not Trump) passed mandated the oil sales temporarily permitted be set aside in...
Read 6 tweets
Oct 8, 2023
1. An anonymous senior U.S. official (likely Brett McGurk) said it was too early to know whether Iran was involved or planning/supporting Hamas' attack against Israel.

This not only contradicts Hamas' spokesperson's on-record confirmation, it ignores 3 decades of evidence.🧵
Image
2. Yasser Arafat said in 1992 that Iran had provided $30 million to Hamas.

In 1995, Clinton's CIA Director James Woolsey told Congress Iran had provided Hamas with $100 million.
meforum.org/251/hamass-for…
3. In 2006, Iran reportedly agreed to train a massive Hamas “rapid deployment force of 6,500 men in Hezbollah combat tactics.”

Iran pledged to pick up the tab and have Hamas terrorists train at IRGC facilities across the country.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 7, 2023
🧵I'm sorry Jen but you are simply unfamiliar with Iranian budgeting practices and how the Iranian regime and Hamas make decisions.

1. Iran normally has to allocate its limited foreign exchange reserves for food/medicine months in advance to facilitate trade flows. Not anymore.
2. Iran can now devote $6 billion of its unrestricted funds toward financial, operational, and logistical support for terror proxies including Hamas.

And it will do so through the Central Bank of Iran, which received a sanctions waiver last month as part of the hostage deal. Image
3. According to Iranian lawmakers, they planned to use the $6 billion to backfill internal accounting debts to the Central Bank of Iran, which is sanctioned by the U.S. for their support of Iranian terrorism and support for Hamas.
iranintl.com/en/202309159160
Read 12 tweets

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