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Gabriel Noronha Profile picture
Gabriel Noronha
@GLNoronha
Former @StateDept advisor on Iran. @JINSADC Fellow. @PolarisNatSec ED. SASC/Inhofe/McCain/Ayotte alum. Occasional Denis Villeneuve evangelist.
Cheri Stahl Profile picture Jeffrey Malashock Profile picture 🇧🇷 🇮🇱 Chemist 🇮🇱 🇧🇷 Profile picture newkid58 Profile picture Frodrick Williams Profile picture 8 subscribed
Apr 19 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
1 - There’s a memo floating around some Hill offices with serious claims about weapons going to Ukraine – the thesis being that if the US keep giving them weapons, WE will quickly run out ourselves.

Putting my Hill staffer hat back on, a brief THREAD examining the claims. 🧵 Image 2 – The chief concern raised is that Ukraine’s consumption of PAC-3 missile interceptors and 155mm artillery shells far outpaces US production rates.

The memo argues that we then curtail U.S. support & suggests we broker a deal to preserve our weapons for the Indo-Pacific.
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Apr 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A few early observations on Israel’s strike on Iran and its proxy targets:

1- Great to see Israel didn’t let itself be bullied by US/European demands at unilateral appeasement.

2- the Iranian regime couldn’t defend their airspace. Israel has freedom of operation inside Iran. 3- the Iranian regime didn’t have regional help shooting down munitions coming their way either.

4- Iranian officials are already downplaying Israel’s attack and claiming they shot down drones.
Good - means they’re trying to pretend nothing happened so their response can be weak
Oct 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
#BREAKING: UN Sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone program have just now expired (7pm ET, 12am GMT).

Iran can now legally buy an ICBM from China or sell missiles/drones to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Russia. Thanks to the 2015 Iran Deal, huge swaths of international sanctions on Iran have just ended. All UN sanctions on Iran will expire permanently two years from now.

Europe and Biden must start doing their job and snapback the sanctions.
jinsa.org/wp-content/upl…
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Oct 15, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Ok let's talk about what "Iranian sleeper cells" in the US look like.

This July 2022 video shows 100s of children singing an ode to Qassem Soleimani & Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei with lyrics "I will be your soldier, I will be your martyr."

It's not Tehran, it's Houston.🧵 The "Islamic Education Center" of Houston hides under the guise of a religious institution.

To be clear, it's not about Islam - it's about advancing Iranian propaganda. That's why they host an annual commemoration of Ruhollah Khomeini - the founder of the Iranian regime. Image
Oct 15, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
I'm not so sure Iran wants Hezbollah to launch against Israel (right now).

The most valuable function Hezbollah provides Iran is a conventional deterrent against Israeli strikes on its nuclear program: if Israeli strikes Iran, Hezbollah launches 150,000 rockets/missiles. (1/7)
Image 2. North Korea has 6,000 artillery systems within range of South Korea's population centers, allowing them to decimate Seoul in hours of any U.S. strike on DPRK's nukes. That's a major reason we never attacked North Korea.

Iran wants the same deterrent.
rand.org/pubs/research_…
Oct 10, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🧵Joe, this is misleading to say the least.

Here's the truth about those accounts - they were mandated under Section 1245 of the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act signed into law by Obama.

The sanctions were designed so that as we cut Iran's oil export volume...(1/x) 2) The price of oil wouldn't spike as we took supply off the markets. Yes, that was for US customers, but it was also to keep Iranian revenue limited since revenue = price*volume.

And it cushioned our allies by not spiking their supplies too rapidly. And we took two MILLION...
Oct 8, 2023 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1. An anonymous senior U.S. official (likely Brett McGurk) said it was too early to know whether Iran was involved or planning/supporting Hamas' attack against Israel.

This not only contradicts Hamas' spokesperson's on-record confirmation, it ignores 3 decades of evidence.🧵
Image 2. Yasser Arafat said in 1992 that Iran had provided $30 million to Hamas.

In 1995, Clinton's CIA Director James Woolsey told Congress Iran had provided Hamas with $100 million.
meforum.org/251/hamass-for…
Oct 7, 2023 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
🧵I'm sorry Jen but you are simply unfamiliar with Iranian budgeting practices and how the Iranian regime and Hamas make decisions.

1. Iran normally has to allocate its limited foreign exchange reserves for food/medicine months in advance to facilitate trade flows. Not anymore. 2. Iran can now devote $6 billion of its unrestricted funds toward financial, operational, and logistical support for terror proxies including Hamas.

And it will do so through the Central Bank of Iran, which received a sanctions waiver last month as part of the hostage deal. Image
Aug 27, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Tehran Times - an Iranian state media outlet - has published a “Sensitive But Unclassified” memo to Iran Envoy Rob Malley explaining why his clearance was suspended.

The letter looks authentic to me. Indicates Malley also lied about not knowing why his clearance was pulled.
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Image The fact the Iranians knew why his clearance was pulled - and that Congress did not until just now - is deeply troubling on many levels…

Congress needs to know whether Iran has access to all State Dept unclassified emails, and what is being done to fix that.
Aug 14, 2023 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
THREAD: I’ve spoken with career @StateDept Iran officials about the latest hostage/nuke deal with Iran. They are very upset and tell me the admin’s public answers are misguided.

“This is 100% a ransom payment...100% this will lead to more Americans being taken hostage.” Image 2⃣ On internal views - one told me: “There is virtually zero support for this hostage deal or nuclear ‘pause’ deal among the rank-and-file diplomats who have any history working on Iran”.

A couple tell me most @StateDept_NEA bureau leadership are concerned about the Iran file.
Aug 10, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🧵THREAD: It has been over a year since Iranian state-owned airlines started ferrying suicide drones to Russia.

And yet in the next seven days, these same airlines will land at 12 airports in NATO countries - each flight in violation of U.S. terror and WMD sanctions. (1/7) Image 2⃣ Open-source intelligence shows 3 Iranian-owned airlines (Iran Air, Mahan Air, and Qeshm Air) have been flying regular routes to Moscow loaded with IRGC trainers and Shahed-136 drones.

These airlines and aircraft are all sanctioned by the United States - some for years now. Image
May 18, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🧵From 2020-2022, 🇮🇷 Iran held multiple 🇬🇧 British citizens hostage, plotted to kidnap/kill a dozen Brits in London, executed a British citizen, and vandalized the UK’s embassy in Tehran.

In response, the UK more than tripled their trade with Iran - from £191M to £696M. Image These statistics come from a new release of data by the UK's Department of Business and Trade.

They show UK imports of Iranian goods increasing by 18% in 2022 - while Iran was slaughtering protesters and giving suicide drones to Russia for their invasion of Ukraine. Image
Apr 27, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: 6 Dem and 6 GOP Senators wrote to Biden asking why his administration is not funding the DHS program that seizes illegal Iranian oil and gas shipments.

That program had seized nearly $228M in oil linked to the IRGC since 2019. Treasury cut off funds to the program in FY22. ImageImageImage 75% of the proceeds from those seized oil shipments used to go to victims of Iran's terrorism.

Now that we're not seizing Iran's oil, the #IRGCterrorists have even more money to support terrorism across the world. Image
Mar 22, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Did you know that the EU has promised to end its arms embargo to Iran this October?

That UN sanctions on Iran selling drones and missiles expires this October too?

That all UN sanctions on Iran end in <31 months, perhaps permanently?

If not, this THREAD is for you.🧵 Back in 2006-2010, the UN Security Council unanimously passed six resolutions against Iran.

These permanently prohibited Iran from conducting all arms sales, uranium enrichment, plutonium reprocessing, ballistic missiles tests/development, and much more.
Feb 6, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
VICTORY. After a year exposing and shaming Biden's approval for a $10 billion nuke deal between Russia and Iran, the @StateDept has finally backed down and cancelled it!

But they are STILL giving sanctions immunity to other Russia-Iranian work... (1/4)
As @Kredo0 reports, the Biden administration renewed all seven sanctions waivers on Iran's "civilian" nuclear program (a laughable term).

They modified one to explicitly cancel immunity for the $10 billion in nuclear construction projects. (2/4)

freebeacon.com/national-secur…
Nov 2, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
🧵Despite Iran sending 100s of drones and missiles to Russia in violation of UNSCR 2231, the @StateDept still refuses to support snapping back UN sanctions on Iran.

Today, @NedPrice explained why: Russia might veto the attempt to return UN sanctions. That's embarrassingly wrong. First, some history.

In case you don't remember, Joe Biden promised in 2015 that Russian or Chinese opposition to snapback wouldn't matter...don't take my word for it!
Sep 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is incredible - Iranians are fighting back like I’ve never seen before.
Iranians are desperately writing me - asking we not forget them when we can’t see videos like these ones.

In Iran’s November 2019 protests, the regime cut the internet nationwide then slaughtered 1,500 protesters in darkness.

It’s probably happening again.
Aug 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
(1/5) We're going to hear this claim a lot, so here's just one story...

In January 2020, Iran refused to provide the IAEA access to two locations where the IAEA was investigating storage of nuclear material.

The head of the IAEA noted "sanitization" had occurred at both sites. (2/5) Iran did not provide access to the sites until late August 2020. That was EIGHT months of no IAEA monitoring and verification.

Then, the IAEA found secret traces of uranium particles at those undeclared sites, where Iran said there was never nuclear activity.
Aug 10, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD: DOJ's latest filings on the Bolton assassination attempt show the US Gov't is *failing* to deter Iran from targeting our former leaders.

They also show Iran continued to pursue the assassinations DURING negotiations with @USEnvoyIran in Vienna. Background: Iran has been looking to kill @mikepompeo, John Bolton, Brian Hook, and other US generals since 2020.

These threats escalated throughout early 2021. DOJ documents prove that from Nov. 9, 2021 onwards, an IRGC handler was asking for the immediate killing of Bolton.
May 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
(1/4) I can personally attest this was not the only time Obama admin folks met with Iranians during the Trump administration.

In each meeting, FM Zarif played John Kerry and co. like marionettes and had them repeating Iranian talking points across DC and the media… (2/4) There were three big lies Zarif regularly sold. First, he spun Iranian hostage-taking as the mere actions of a justice system.

He then pretended Iran was willing to engage in hostage deals. When we followed up on the rumored offer in private, the Iranians pulled back.
Apr 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Iran has sanctioned 24 former and current U.S. officials. Full list in thread🧵

Today's honorees include:
Chief of Staff of the Army George Casey (Ret),
SOCOM commander Jospeh Votel (Ret.)
Austin Miller (head of Afghanistan mission, Ret.)
Former Senator @JoeLieberman Former Senator Robert Torricelli (lobbies for NCRI)
Former NYC Mayor/Trump Lawyer @RudyGiuliani
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea
Deputy Chief of Mission in Israel Jonathan Shrier
Former Ambassador to Israel @DavidM_Friedman
Former Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross