Alina Chan Profile picture
Mar 2 6 tweets 3 min read
Video is up for a recent (Feb 28, 2022) National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) public review of US government policies on dual use research of concern (DURC) and research with enhanced potential pandemic pathogens (ePPP/P3CO).
videocast.nih.gov/watch=44823 ImageImageImageImage
Having listened to this, I'm worried that some of the experts on the call are more concerned that the US might lose its competitive edge internationally than that some of this research might kill millions whether by accidental or deliberate release.
There's good acknowledgement of the difficulty of balancing security vs research advances, challenges of knowing what is happening in labs even in the US, & the value of engaging non-scientist stakeholders (I think this is very important; non-scientist views should have weight).
I still think the US & other scientific leaders can set a good model for the world by allowing some of this research to occur but on a remote island. Transparently and safely.

This means you don't lose a competitive edge & the work is also safer.
The two choices should not be:

(1) Risk unleashing a pandemic by conducting risky experiments in/near densely populated urban centers

(2) Ban this research in the US and fear accelerating pandemic pathogen advances in hostile nations
The NSABB review will cover issues that appear to have been raised by the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis - funding studies involving viruses found in nature, experiments using animal models of transmissibility and international #GainOfFunction studies.
science.org/content/articl… Image

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More from @Ayjchan

Mar 3
Dec 2019 to mid-Jan 2020: Chinese CDC, Hubei CDC, Wuhan CDC specifically looked for potential Covid-19 cases with links to Huanan Market or living in the vicinity of the market.

Feb 2022: Western scientists say, "Wow so many of the early cases were centered around the market!" ImageImage
China-WHO report annexes (p125) described the early search for cases:
"screening.. targeting people with pneumonia.. and exposure history with Huanan market.. surveillance at several hospitals (close to Huanan market), Huanan market and the neighbourhood"
who.int/publications/i… Image
Jan 2020, the 2019-nCoV Outbreak Joint Field Epidemiology Investigation Team reported that, in late Dec 2019, Wuhan CDC did "a retrospective search for pneumonia patients potentially linked to the market.. found additional patients linked to the market"
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/artic… Image
Read 22 tweets
Mar 3
My main takeaway from this report by @theintercept @MaraHvistendahl is there is a Year 6 report potentially describing more work done at the Wuhan Institute of Virology - that the NIH received from EcoHealth in June 2021 but has not shared with reporters.
theintercept.com/2022/03/03/wuh…
@theintercept @MaraHvistendahl Article quotes @FilippaLentzos co-director of King’s College London’s Centre for Science and Security Studies: “By only communicating through litigation requests, it comes across as though [NIH]’re covering something up.”
Note that Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance told @theintercept “Even though we didn’t have access to the [NIH] funding, we still had to file reports on it. So we then filed the Year 6 and 7 reports.”

Even without receiving funding, the work went on for 2+ years.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
Both natural & lab #OriginOfCovid hypotheses are plausible & must be credibly investigated.

It's normal for people to argue which is more likely, but we don't have the data to know.

It's not ok for experts to report near certainty or dispositive evidence when there is none.
We have no sign of a SARS2 precursor whether in a market or in a lab.

We know there was a Dec 2019 cluster of cases at a market where potential animal hosts were sold.

We know there is a Wuhan lab doing precisely the type of work that could've caused the emergence of SARS2.
Without access to data about cases in November or early December 2019, we don't know how the market cluster occurred.

There is no animal version of the virus at the market, no sign of an animal host or infected supply chain.

These should be investigated but not assumed.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
I wasn't aware that it is scientific misconduct to alert editors to the fact that key data is missing in a paper.
Image
To facilitate discussion, here it is, the text in their preprint that says they can't verify the data, don't have key data, but believe their analysis is robust.
If your preprint hasn't even been submitted for consideration, why is it on the front page of the @nytimes ??
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
It's important to remember that a single individual can get some things right and other things really wrong.

For example, some scientists & journalists are fantastic at precisely explaining new variants and vaccine efficacy, but somehow terrible on the topic of #OriginOfCovid
It's tempting to assume the rest of their research or reporting might be similarly poor, but I know that these scientists and journalists are generally doing an incredible job in other areas. I just wish that they would apply similar standards of rigor to #OriginOfCovid
I'm really sure that, most of the time, these scientists and journalists are aware that you need to have complete data before making confident assertions.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
If you were taken in by the beautiful figures in the new Proximal Origin preprints, please get in touch with @sciencecohen
Imagine if the same approach was applied to clinical trials of covid-19 vaccines. "We don't know if the data is authentic. We don't have the full data. But we're sure our analysis is robust."

Should science journalists be seeking out scientists who were convinced by the paper?
Read 9 tweets

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