Video is up for a recent (Feb 28, 2022) National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) public review of US government policies on dual use research of concern (DURC) and research with enhanced potential pandemic pathogens (ePPP/P3CO). videocast.nih.gov/watch=44823
Having listened to this, I'm worried that some of the experts on the call are more concerned that the US might lose its competitive edge internationally than that some of this research might kill millions whether by accidental or deliberate release.
There's good acknowledgement of the difficulty of balancing security vs research advances, challenges of knowing what is happening in labs even in the US, & the value of engaging non-scientist stakeholders (I think this is very important; non-scientist views should have weight).
I still think the US & other scientific leaders can set a good model for the world by allowing some of this research to occur but on a remote island. Transparently and safely.
This means you don't lose a competitive edge & the work is also safer.
(1) Risk unleashing a pandemic by conducting risky experiments in/near densely populated urban centers
(2) Ban this research in the US and fear accelerating pandemic pathogen advances in hostile nations
The NSABB review will cover issues that appear to have been raised by the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis - funding studies involving viruses found in nature, experiments using animal models of transmissibility and international #GainOfFunction studies. science.org/content/articl…
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Dec 2019 to mid-Jan 2020: Chinese CDC, Hubei CDC, Wuhan CDC specifically looked for potential Covid-19 cases with links to Huanan Market or living in the vicinity of the market.
Feb 2022: Western scientists say, "Wow so many of the early cases were centered around the market!"
China-WHO report annexes (p125) described the early search for cases:
"screening.. targeting people with pneumonia.. and exposure history with Huanan market.. surveillance at several hospitals (close to Huanan market), Huanan market and the neighbourhood" who.int/publications/i…
Jan 2020, the 2019-nCoV Outbreak Joint Field Epidemiology Investigation Team reported that, in late Dec 2019, Wuhan CDC did "a retrospective search for pneumonia patients potentially linked to the market.. found additional patients linked to the market" ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/artic…
My main takeaway from this report by @theintercept@MaraHvistendahl is there is a Year 6 report potentially describing more work done at the Wuhan Institute of Virology - that the NIH received from EcoHealth in June 2021 but has not shared with reporters. theintercept.com/2022/03/03/wuh…
@theintercept@MaraHvistendahl Article quotes @FilippaLentzos co-director of King’s College London’s Centre for Science and Security Studies: “By only communicating through litigation requests, it comes across as though [NIH]’re covering something up.”
Note that Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance told @theintercept “Even though we didn’t have access to the [NIH] funding, we still had to file reports on it. So we then filed the Year 6 and 7 reports.”
Even without receiving funding, the work went on for 2+ years.
To facilitate discussion, here it is, the text in their preprint that says they can't verify the data, don't have key data, but believe their analysis is robust.
It's important to remember that a single individual can get some things right and other things really wrong.
For example, some scientists & journalists are fantastic at precisely explaining new variants and vaccine efficacy, but somehow terrible on the topic of #OriginOfCovid
It's tempting to assume the rest of their research or reporting might be similarly poor, but I know that these scientists and journalists are generally doing an incredible job in other areas. I just wish that they would apply similar standards of rigor to #OriginOfCovid
I'm really sure that, most of the time, these scientists and journalists are aware that you need to have complete data before making confident assertions.
Imagine if the same approach was applied to clinical trials of covid-19 vaccines. "We don't know if the data is authentic. We don't have the full data. But we're sure our analysis is robust."
Should science journalists be seeking out scientists who were convinced by the paper?