Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 2, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

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For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be...

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...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.

CTIS Controller & CTIS diagram👇👇

3/ ImageImage
One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires.

The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple.

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When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.

See early video:

5/
Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud.

The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up.

No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year

6/
There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine.

The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season
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And there is photographic evidence of this.

There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.

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Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system.

So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War.
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What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening. The Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide.

When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Fins in 1939
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...destroying Russian truck columns.

The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there.

But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 5
Oh heck yes, AFU is hunting Russian H2O trucks! ⬇️

@secretsqrl123 has sussed out the Russian potable water supply chain and it involves a thrown together bubba engineering with palletized IBC containers used by restaurants for vegetable oil.

Russian H2O supply chain🧵

1/
This is an ICB container.⬇️

Six were on that Russian truck.

Likely they were man-handled onto the truck empty, lashed down, and filled by hose.

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This is a Russian IBC water container that was burnt to nothing in a forest fire.

The RuAF Bubba-engineering IBC water truck rolls up to one of these and refills it with a gravity fed hose.

Note the steel pail & bottles to move water to trenches⬇️
3/

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Read 9 tweets
Jul 5
I've been asked to post my four appearances on Paul Woodadge's @WW2TV youtube channel to X.

This was about MacArthur's "Wild Weasel" radar hunters before the term was invented.

Dr Bellamy was PhD heavy lifter here.

Section 22 Radar Hunters


1/
This is the story of Master Technical Sergeant Dermott H. MacDonnell and how his performance as chief radar operator for Marine Air Group 23’s (MAG-23) SCR-270 radar...

The Horseshoe Nail of Victory of the Guadalcanal Air Campaign

2/
...made the difference between keeping and losing daylight air superiority over Henderson Field in the darkest days of the Guadalcanal campaign.

And why you don't know this.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 4
What you are seeing here is the world changing as the barriers to entry to strategic bombing fall.

OWA Drones carry 1/5th the warhead of a Tomahawk just as far for 1/10th the cost.

There are many who say this means OWA drone can't hurt enough target sets to be effective.
1/
Strategic bombing history says otherwise.

Incendiary devices were 10 times as effective at destroying urban areas than high explosive per unit mass per the US Strategic Bombing Surveys'.

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Sending twice the warhead mass of incendiaries of a unitary explosive warhead Tomahawk for the same price is 20 times as effective and requires 10 times the air defense missile warshot or gun based ammunition to protect any target.

3/
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Read 15 tweets
Jul 3
The use of crippled/wounded Russian men as soldiers is not the only or even the most important indicator that Russia has hit the mobilization wall⬇️

Nor are female prisoners, foreign mercs or DPRK soldiers.

Russia is now deploying Hitlerjugend-esque child-soldiers.

Wall🧵
1/
This trial use of 17 year olds by Putin reported by Ukraine's Center for National Resistance (CNR) closely mirrors the Hitlerjugend Division of the Waffen SS in the Normandy summer of 1944.

The end game of this desperation measure...

2/
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/388…
...in Feb/Mar 1945 was the Waffen SS using 14 year old kids.

Per the CNR Report:

"Currently, Russia is actively recruiting members of patriotic movements, in particular, the network of military education centers "Warrior" and "Yunarmiya" (Young Army). Teenagers aged 17

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Read 15 tweets
Jul 3
There are two thing here that are important.

The use of a 73mm BMP-1 gun as artillery is as good an indication Russian traditional tube artillery is 'supply constrained' as you want to find.

The prime mover shown is even more important.

RuAF systemic logistical collapse🧵
1/
It tells us that Russian motor transport fleet is in worse shape than its tube artillery park.⬇️

It's a visual confirmation of a general motor transport shortage telling us why cholera outbreaks are happening to Russian troops along the Dnipro.

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Russia motor transport can't deliver enough fresh water to front trenches.

The latest @AndrewPerpetua video kill list of Russian motor transport shows three tactical trucks, four civilian cars, no Loaf/Scooby vans, one ATV and 25 motorcycles.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 1
The increased Ukrainian use of barbed wire tracks with the appearance of Russian "Motorcycle Dragoon's."

1/
And this post⬇️

The late Cold War Soviet Army, which both the Ukrainian & Russian Armies stem from, had a cultural aversion to barbed wire.

Russian "Motorcycle Dragoon's" seem to have cured the Ukrainian Army of this.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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