Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 2, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

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For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be...

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...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.

CTIS Controller & CTIS diagram👇👇

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One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires.

The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple.

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When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.

See early video:

5/
Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud.

The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up.

No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year

6/
There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine.

The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season
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And there is photographic evidence of this.

There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.

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Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system.

So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War.
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What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening. The Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide.

When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Fins in 1939
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...destroying Russian truck columns.

The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there.

But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 27
What is scary for me here is that Crooks used a commercial drone to do final surveillance of site security before his attack.

That, and this letter, indicates to me that USSS at Butler PA lacked both drone detection capability and drone jamming guns, as well as drones.

1/
It also tracks with the USSS technological backwardness with the complete lack of visible gunfire location sensors at the Butler, PA rally.

Raytheon's McKinney, TX facilities dealing with such kit were local to me in 2010

2/
spacewar.com/reports/Acoust…


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...when I worked for DCMA Dallas.

I'd have thought every USSS Presidential candidate detail would have had them by 2016, let alone 2024.

@dbongino and @susancrabtree should be asking questions about this since no one else wants to go there.

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Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
While this is true about Ex-Soviet arms stockpiles versus new production.⬇️

The thing to watch like a hawk is Russian railway operations.

Russian railway watch🧵
1/
The Russian railways living on Cold War rolling stock (40%) & infrastructure, now ended contracting out to Europe, and now has less advanced Chinese rail contractors, means Russia is on right side of the curve below.

2/
Russian railway car trucks (illustrative photo⬇️) rely upon Western SKF & Amsted cassette bearings that have not been supplied since May 2022 and the Russian co-production facilities were shut down from a lack of proprietary software...

3/

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Read 7 tweets
Jul 23
It has been clear for about 18 months that the Ukrainian military has put in the time to master and digest the materials in the US Strategic Bombing Surveys for lessons on how to take down an industrial economy.

The latest rail ferry strike is just the latest example.
USSBS🧵
1/

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The USSBS made a big fat hairy deal about Japanese railway ferry's moving coal from Hokkaido to Honshu.

Ukraine learned that lesson for Crimea⬇️

2/
The top level summary USSBS reports are filled with political agenda.

The lower level reports feeding into those summaries have a lot of really useful economic data that is still applicable today.

Those reports aren't used anywhere near enough by 21st century analysts.

3/
German aircraft factory shop floor
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Read 11 tweets
Jul 22
This was the "Biden vs Trump Debate moment" for USSS Director Cheatle.

In a situation as "1st shot at Fort Sumter" volatile as this, Cheatle needed to "Come to Jesus," be 100% truthful & offer a full mea culpa admitting to her follies.

She didn't.

1/
Lest the heavens fall🧵
Worse, both she and her superior DHS Secretary Mayorkas were very publicly caught out as lying on the most important facts regarding the lack of protection for former President Trump.

2/
I am still in the "Incompetence leading to culpable negligence" camp on the Trump rally shooting.

Culpable negligence that created an opportunity for a nutjob hearing Ross Perot in his tooth fillings to take a shot.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Jul 22
It appears that @JDVance1 public refusal to debate V.P. Harris on the grounds of:

"We don't know who the Democratic Party Presidential nominee will be,"

... is looking very common sense, which is a very uncommon thing to say about any US Senator.🤨🤔

Jacksonian populism🧵
1/
While I utterly despise @JDVance1 public statements on Ukraine...

...the collapse of the @JoeBiden candidacy reinforces his "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate brand at the expense of Democratic Party's negative campaigning with non-Democrats, and the working class generally.

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And @JDVance1 statements that the USA doesn't make the munitions or have a ship building infrastructure for a multi-front war...

Nor are there any plans to have such a mobilization supporting that logistical capability

...have the virtue of being factually correct.

3/
Read 24 tweets
Jul 21
This is exactly the what the losing side in a war does when undergoing Lanchester Square collapse.⬇️

Just like the way Japanese & German air forces in WW2 collapsed from a lack of skilled replacement pilots and mechanics.

1/
The rate of increase of Russian ground force casualties tracks a collapse of skills from the attrition of competent Russian officers without a Russian training establishment capable of replacing them.

The "Next 100k" of Russian casualties always happens faster.

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It also tracks the collapse of the Russian army motor transport that is preventing both medical system casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and the resupply of forward positions with food, water and medical supplies.

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Read 5 tweets

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