Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 2, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

1/ Image
For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be...

2/ Image
...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.

CTIS Controller & CTIS diagram👇👇

3/ ImageImage
One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires.

The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple.

4/ Image
When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.

See early video:

Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud.

The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up.

No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year

There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine.

The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season
7/ Image
And there is photographic evidence of this.

There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.

8/ Image
Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system.

So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War.
9/ Image
What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening. The Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide.

When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Fins in 1939
10/ Image
...destroying Russian truck columns.

The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there.

But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.
11/End Image

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 14
Iran had hard limits in the number of competent launch crews.

The shut down and reopening of Iranian air space was likely Iran discovering how badly their planning was dancing with Miss Rosey Scenario as far as time on target drone & missile launches were concerned.

The additional 24 to 36 hours was the competent IRGC crews checking the work of the noobs and proxies for this strike in progress.

Senator Rubio was briefed on all the additional drone launch sites that radio traffic associated with the competent crews revealed.

The intelligence on this seems to have gone down something like R V Jones book 'Secret Wars" where he described chasing down V-1 testing sites by locating the two best Nazi radar tracking units with SIGINT and ELINT in 1943.

WW2 military history is always relevant.

Read 4 tweets
Apr 7
English Translation:

"Today, the RussiaNoContext channel published a video from the phone of the Russian military, who filmed the first consequences after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP and rejoiced at this act of ecocide against Ukraine.

We will remind that the terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP was carried out by the Russian occupying forces, the military of the Russian Federation from the 205th Infantry Brigade, around 2:50 a.m. on June 6, 2023.

As a result of this war crime, a large-scale ecological disaster occurred."

Short form:

No Ukrainian missile was involved in the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP.

Russia did it.

Read 6 tweets
Mar 24
Regarding this:

>>no significant damage to the ships is visible.

Fragmentation damage is rarely visible from satellite photos.

The photo intelligence analysts in WW2 hated the use of aerial fragmentation munitions for exactly that reason.

Limits of photo BDA🧵
Aerial bomb fragmentation damage could only be really be captured immediately after detonation...

2/ Image
...or on ground that allows high contrast fragment impact marks.


Read 6 tweets
Mar 23
We are seeing a lot of posts and articles on X about Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign against Russian refineries .

People, including Jake Sullivan over at the Biden Adm. NSC think this is about AFU cutting off Russian oil.

They're wrong. It's about explosives.
The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production.

Ukrainian OWA drones are engaged in strategic counter battery fire against the Russian artillery supply chain providing the explosive fillings & propellent for shells, rockets and missiles.

[This also has knock on effects for Russian fertilizer production.]

Read 19 tweets
Mar 22
James Dunnigan's Strategypage dot com site has a new piece up titled:

"Russia: Can Russia Continue the War After 2024?"

Russian Lanchester Square collapse indicators🧵

"March 20, 2024: Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are
...wearing out, while the light AFV shortage is because so many have been lost in combat."

and later in the article:

"It is highly likely, given Russian corruption and maintenance standards, that only about 3,000 of the nominally available 4,000 pieces of 122mm artillery

Read 10 tweets
Mar 22
Regarding the Biden Administration "Controlled leak" in the FT.

Russia has contributed only about 8% of global refined fuel exports at max,per the CIA.

When Russia chooses to export, which it hasn't since February 2024.

The Jake Sullivan run Biden Adm. NSC's whole FT argument that Ukraine should stop plinking Russian refineries to prevent "oil market instability" is utter nonsense.

The Iranian sponsored Houthi blockade of the Suez has a much much larger "oil market instability" impact.

Biden won't do anything effective regarding Iran.

Meanwhile the Biden Adm. attempt to restrain Ukrainian refinery strikes is actually doing great damage to American foreign policy credibility in Eastern Europe and particularly in the Baltics.

Read 6 tweets

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