Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 2, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

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For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be...

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...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.

CTIS Controller & CTIS diagram👇👇

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One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires.

The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple.

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When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.

See early video:

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Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud.

The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up.

No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year

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There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine.

The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season
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And there is photographic evidence of this.

There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.

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Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system.

So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War.
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What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening. The Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide.

When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Fins in 1939
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...destroying Russian truck columns.

The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there.

But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.
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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 22
The Ukrainian "refresh rate" on it's drone EW systems has been about two weeks since late 2023

What the Russians said right here is that it took a month to set up this attack⬇️

Ukraine & QRCP🧵
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In the late 1960's to 1973 Arab-Israeli War US EW contractors could meet a two week cycle time with "quick reaction capability program" to bypass normal procurement procedures and speed urgently needed electronic systems to the battlefield.

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Given the the triple handicaps of Silicon Valley practice of outsourcing of engineering talent, counting foreigners as 'diversity hires,' and ITAR restrictions for defense work.

The USA lacks the electronic engineering talent it did in the Apollo/Vietnam era to do 'QRCP.'

3/3
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
The mass production of China's "Corvus Mulberry" tank landing barges proceeds apace in a shipyard also building freighters for a Taiwanese shipping firm.

Taiwanese capitalists are literally paying the Chinese shipyard that is building the means CCP will use to invade Taiwan!
1/
The US Navy doesn't have the tankers, salvage ships, tugs, fire boats & destroyer tenders to attempt running China's drone & anti-ship missile gauntlet when the CCP invades Taiwan.

China collapsing from a 3-4 year US naval blockade will disgorge Taiwan from the CCP's grip.
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Will someone please explain to me why the US Navy should impale it's carrier battle groups on Chinese anti-ship hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles to rescue Taiwan from this foolishness?

Distant naval blockade will collapse China's economy for for far fewer US lives.

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Read 4 tweets
Apr 20
The mass production of China's "Corvu Mulberry" tank landing barges proceeds apace in a shipyard also building freighters for a Taiwanese shipping firm.

Taiwanese capitalists are literally paying the Chinese shipyard that are building the means CCP will use to invade them.

1/
Will someone please explain to me why the US Navy should impale it's carrier battle groups on Chinese anti-ship hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles to rescue Taiwan from this foolishness?

Distant naval blockade will collapse China's economy for far fewer US lives.
2/ Image
Image
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The US Navy doesn't have the tankers, salvage ships, tugs, fire boats & destroyer tenders to attempt running China's drone & anti-ship missile gauntlet when the CCP invades Taiwan.

China collapsing from a 3-4 year US naval blockade will disgorge Taiwan from the CCP's grip.

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Read 4 tweets
Apr 19
It turns out that, in addition to "TAF-10" USMC SCR-270 radars, the USMC 90mm Heavy AA Battalion SCR-584 radars saw quite a few of the Japanese Balloon Radar Decoys at Okinawa in/near Hagushi Beach, Yonton & Kadena air fields.

WW2 Radar Decoy🧵
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The Marine AA troops didn't know what they were, but their descriptions match known aerodynamic templates for them.  

The balloon decoy tended to fall through different levels of wind direction & updrafts.  So the decoy often went in different directions than the ground wind.
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The 1st Marine Provisional Anti-Aircraft Group Hqtrs saw the radar decoy balloons most often when the Japanese engaged in a night time tactic they referred to as "Ice-Tong attacks."

Pairs of Japanese planes established themselves in orbits just outside effective 90mm gun

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Read 14 tweets
Apr 19
There was a lot more electromagnetic deception in WW2 than is in US Military histories.

The silence on such matters is jarring.

This text report (left) is from USS Pennsylvania in June 1944 during the Mariannes campaign describing the decoys drawn by Section 22 (right).

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The one of the previous drawing is of a captured decoy from Roi island in March 1944. 

Roi was subject to several IJN air raids using this decoy, as USS New Mexico reported its effects 14 Feb 1944, later reported in a Section 22 Current Statement dated 3 April 1944.
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Somehow the report in General Douglas MacArthur's Section 22 radar hunters current statement was scrubbed from all the Feb-March 1944 period after action reports and war diaries of USS New Mexico I've checked.

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Read 12 tweets
Apr 18
There is an tragi-comic story behind this Russian foreign ministry claim.

The Russian use the term "direct participation" because of a lie by Chancellor Scholz a year ago when he claimed the computer system used to program the Taurus missiles...
1/
...was a huge supercomputer in Germany that could not be replicated for Ukraine.

But German computer scientists found an article that described the 20 year old computer system used by Taurus.

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BLUF: Today that Taurus mission planning software could be operated on a MacBookPro.

But the lie was never retracted by Scholz and the Russians still use it for propaganda.

So Russians can not exploit Scholz's lie to scare Germans, because they know it's a lie.🤡

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Read 4 tweets

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