Earlier today, at least 14 NATO and Swedish ISR aircraft flew sorties around Ukraine: USAF RQ-4 (FORTE10), RC-135W (JAKE12), MQ-9A (WILEY32), U-2S (BLACK01, BLACK02); US Army RC-12X (2 YANK01), ARTEMIS (BRIO68); 1/10
NATO E-3A (NATO01, NATO02, NATO11); Swedish S102B (SVF622), S100D (C203); RAF RC-135W (RRR7220). 2/10
ISR matrix covering today's flights showing collection coverage of the different types of aircraft. Of note is U-2S BLACK01, which is equipped with a SIGINT collection pod, and MQ-9A WILEY32, which was recorded as flying a 21-hour sortie today. 3/10
I decided to map today's flights at a more limited scope, both to simplify the work required and to focus more on the area around Ukraine. It is likely I will do more if I notice interesting patterns again. 4/10
A few events of note: First, the adjusted RQ-4 track after several days of not seeing any RQ-4 activity. We went from daily flights to none showing, a sharp drop especially considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. 5/10
The RQ-4 sorties have apparently moved from the area over the Black Sea to now over Poland. It is interesting that there has been a focus on the western border of Ukraine and the whole of Kaliningrad. I will be interested to see if this continues. 6/10
Second, since the invasion of Ukraine we have seen the ARTEMIS flights move from their usual spot over the eastern border of Poland and Belarus to now over Romania. It is not clear what has prompted this change. 7/10
Third: today, four Russian fighter aircraft flew near Gotland, SE, prompting a deployment of Swedish alert fighters. It is possible this event coincides with the flight of the S100D Airborne Early Warning aircraft.
Fourth, it appears that YANK01 encountered an issue during her earlier sortie after only an hour of flying that required her to return to base for 6 hours before taking off again. It is not likely we will hear what happened, but it is interesting nonetheless. 9/10
US Army MQ-1C with likely registration 11-00169 out of Mielec Airport, PO. A photo from Reuters shows @82ndCAB MQ-1C xx-0171 at Mielec, 10 days ago. Based on the similarity in registrations, 169 is likely with the same unit. #ADSB#AE51ED
We can also see it making the classic hexagon patterns that I talked about briefly, here:
Today, at least 25 NATO and Swedish ISR aircraft flew sorties over Europe: USAF RQ-4s (FORTE11, 2 FORTE12), RC-135W (JAKE11), E-8C (REDEYE6), U-2S (BLACK01, BLACK02); USN P-8As (2 PS23x, 5 PS24x); US Army RC-12X (YANK03), ARTEMIS (BRIO68); 1/7
RAF RC-135W (RRR7216); German P-3C (no callsign); NATO E-3As (NATO01, NATO02, NATO09, NATO10), RQ-4 (UAVGH000); Swedish S102B (SVF622), S100D (C603). 2/7
Today's ISR matrix is.. busy, with strong coverage by ISR assets over the Black Sea (RQ-4s) and assets near Belarus (RC-135Ws, ARTEMIS, E-8C). 3/7
Today, at least 19 NATO and Swedish ISR aircraft flew sorties over Europe: USAF RQ-4s (2 FORTE12, FORTE11), RC-135W (JAKE12), RC-135U (HOMER39), U-2S (BLACK01); USN P-8As (4 PS23x, PS22x, PL23x); US Army RC-12X (YANK03), ARTEMIS (BRIO68); 1/9
RAF RC-135W (RRR7218); Greek EMB-134H (OURAN31); NATO RQ-4 (UAVGH000), E-3A (NATO02); Swedish S102B (SVF622). 2/9
Today's ISR sync matrix shows distinct overlap across multiple platforms, in multiple regions. We see the RQ-4 coverage is nearly uninterrupted, with only an hour gap. 3/9
Today, at least 23 NATO, Swedish, & Ukrainian ISR aircraft flew sorties over Europe: USAF RC-135V (HOMER21), RC-135W (JAKE11), WC-135W (JAKE21), RQ-4 (FORTE12), U-2S (2 BLACK01); USN P-8As (PS21x, 2 PS22x, PL22x), EP-3E (no callsign); 1/8
US Army RC-12Xs (YANK01, YANK02, YANK03), ARTEMIS (BRIO68); RAF P-8As (RFR7041, STGRY01), RC-135W (RRR7215); Canadian CP140 (no callsign); Greek EMB-145H (OURAN31); NATO E-3A (NATO06); Swedish S102B (SVF622); Ukrainian TB2 (12345678). 2/8
ISR Sync matrix for 2022-02-22 covering all spotted flights up until the current time, with daylight represented as a light gray bar on each line. I tried a slight adjustment on the style, based on received feedback. 3/8
Today, at least 13 NATO ISR aircraft flew sorties over Europe: USN P-8As (4 PS21x, PS20x); USAF RQ-4 (FORTE11), E-8C (REDEYE6), RC-135U (HOMER19); US Army RC-12X (YANK01, YANK02), ARTEMIS (BRIO68); NATO RQ-4D (UAVGH000); German Navy P-3C (GNY4530). 1/5
Despite the P-8 activity in the Ionian Sea being regular these past few days, today was the first day I am including it due to recently hearing about Russian naval operations in the area.
Today, at least 8 US and Ukrainian ISR aircraft flew sorties over Europe: USAF RC-135W (JAKE12), RC-135V (HOMER71), WC-135W (JAKE21), RQ-4s (no callsign [possible FORTE12?], FORTE11); USN P-8A (PL20x); Ukrainian TB2 (12345688); NATO RQ-4D (UAVGH000) 1/8
Again we see an overall lighter day, with few P-8s in the eastern Med but with a P-8 observing the Gibraltar Strait. Two Rivet Joints providing coverage of the Belarus-Ukraine border and of Crimea, with 24-hour RQ-4 coverage of the same areas, this time with an added TB2. 2/8
Per @CSIS, the area focused on by the TB2 can be shown to be busy with Russian ground forces: 3/8