Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 7: A week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided a wealth of information as to the nature of major state-on-state war in the 21st Century. I will explore these more in-depth soon. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWar

2/ What follows is a brief synopsis of today’s events and activities in the Ukrainian Theater of War. A thorough analysis of Russian and Ukrainian operational performance during this past first week of the war will be forth coming in the next 24-48 hours.

3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Western intelligence sources indicate that the Russians are reorienting themselves operationally for a slower attritional campaign as opposed to continuing a horribly planned and executed attempt at large-scale 6th Gen Warfare.

4/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. It is hard to look past the spectacular stories emerging on various social media platforms of the poor state of Russian units, especially in the northern theater. Units surrendering, vehicles abandoned, confused leadership.

5/ Nevertheless, to understand what has happened, and where things might be headed, we need to look past these incidents, numerous and telling as they might be, to see how the Russians are, or are not, adapting. This is needs to be the same for the Ukrainian military.

6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. This area remains the most worrisome for both Russia and Ukraine. Both have made important gains here. The ability of either side to achieve their objectives here may become the hinge on which victory turns.

7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. It is becoming clear that the focus of in the south for Russia will be Odesa. Capturing this port will severely impact the ability of the West to provide lethal and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

8/ Aerospace Operation Assessment. As mentioned, I will provide a more in-depth review of the first week soon. But the key take away is that Ukrainian airspace remains contested. Ukrainian air defense remains active and effective, especially short-range air defenses.

9/ In my week one overview I will discuss why I think Russia’s attempt at 6th Generation Warfare in the opening days of the war failed, how the Ukrainian military is outperforming its own capabilities, and the likely direction of future operations.

10/ I want to state that if I have misspelled any Ukrainian names / words or used a Russian spelling in place of a Ukrainian one, that I am sorry of this oversight. I fully intend to use Ukrainian spelling / verbiage and not Russian.

11/ That is it for this update. There is more to come. I am going through a lot of data and what to be sure I provide the most accurate information that is available, so you are as informed as much as possible to the situation on the ground.

12/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

13/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.