1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 7: A week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided a wealth of information as to the nature of major state-on-state war in the 21st Century. I will explore these more in-depth soon. #UkraineRussianWar#UkraineWar
2/ What follows is a brief synopsis of today’s events and activities in the Ukrainian Theater of War. A thorough analysis of Russian and Ukrainian operational performance during this past first week of the war will be forth coming in the next 24-48 hours.
3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Western intelligence sources indicate that the Russians are reorienting themselves operationally for a slower attritional campaign as opposed to continuing a horribly planned and executed attempt at large-scale 6th Gen Warfare.
4/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. It is hard to look past the spectacular stories emerging on various social media platforms of the poor state of Russian units, especially in the northern theater. Units surrendering, vehicles abandoned, confused leadership.
5/ Nevertheless, to understand what has happened, and where things might be headed, we need to look past these incidents, numerous and telling as they might be, to see how the Russians are, or are not, adapting. This is needs to be the same for the Ukrainian military.
6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. This area remains the most worrisome for both Russia and Ukraine. Both have made important gains here. The ability of either side to achieve their objectives here may become the hinge on which victory turns.
7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. It is becoming clear that the focus of in the south for Russia will be Odesa. Capturing this port will severely impact the ability of the West to provide lethal and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
8/ Aerospace Operation Assessment. As mentioned, I will provide a more in-depth review of the first week soon. But the key take away is that Ukrainian airspace remains contested. Ukrainian air defense remains active and effective, especially short-range air defenses.
9/ In my week one overview I will discuss why I think Russia’s attempt at 6th Generation Warfare in the opening days of the war failed, how the Ukrainian military is outperforming its own capabilities, and the likely direction of future operations.
10/ I want to state that if I have misspelled any Ukrainian names / words or used a Russian spelling in place of a Ukrainian one, that I am sorry of this oversight. I fully intend to use Ukrainian spelling / verbiage and not Russian.
11/ That is it for this update. There is more to come. I am going through a lot of data and what to be sure I provide the most accurate information that is available, so you are as informed as much as possible to the situation on the ground.
12/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
13/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
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1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: The Siversk OD is not only militarily sensitive for Russia and Ukraine but also politically, especially for Russia. Since the fall of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna, Siversk has been a key operational hub. It occupies a crucial position within the OSUV Khortytsia area of responsibility. It acts as a coordination center between OTU Lyman and OTU Luhansk to defend the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk urban conglomerate, a critical strategic point in the Donbas SD. Additionally, it serves as the entry point into northern Donetsk Oblast.
Little has changed in the Siversk OD for almost two and a half years. It is a principal source of Russian military frustration, exemplifying the inadequacies of the Russian Armed Forces in achieving a decisive victory over Ukraine and the Ukrainian ability to hold their territory and outfight the Russians.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: Major Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Grouping of Forces (OSUV) Khortytsia, stated that the Russians are trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the western side, looking for vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defenses to capture the city. Tregubov also suggested that the Russians would not try to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region but concentrate on capturing Pokrovsk city. The major stated that the Russians maintain their daily average of 50-60 combat actions along this sector of the front.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1067: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kupyansk Operational Direction from January 5-25, 2025, with some highlights of events in other parts of the TVD. #Kupyansk #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: The 1st Guards Tank Army continues its well-coordinated multi-division offensive along a line of operations at the junction of the OTU Kupyansk and OTU Staroblisk areas of responsibility. The assault by the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division into northern Kupyansk and Dvorichna during late 2024 and early 2025 has revealed vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses in this segment of the front to infiltration. The expanding Dvorichna Bridgehead presents a substantial challenge for ZSU forces. Should the Russians succeed in capturing Dvorichna and extend their lines south towards Radkivka and Holubivka, the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division would establish a new avenue of advance to possibly encircle Kupyansk from the north.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1066: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Toretsk Area of Operations from January 05-24, 2025, with some highlights of events in Velya Novosilka and in Kursk. #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: OSV Yug successfully and swiftly integrated reserve forces into the front-line units of the 41st Guards Combined Arms Army by the end of December 2024. In early January 2025, Russian forces in central Toretsk initiated a series of well-coordinated platoon-sized assaults, taking advantage of the limited visibility caused by ongoing adverse weather conditions, to concentrate assault teams along key routes of advance. This tactical approach diminished the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV targeting while enhancing Russian maneuver superiority.
As a result, Ukrainian defenses in central and southern Toretsk rapidly deteriorated, with approximately 70% of the city coming under Russian control by mid-January. ZSU forces established a final defensive line stretching from the forested region west of Dachne to the Toretska mine. Further south, Ukrainian troops maintained control over the Tsentralna Mine and exerted FPV and fire control over the western areas of the ZabalkaMicro-District, accounting for around 30% of Toretsk's territory still under Ukrainian control.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1065: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Chasiv Yar Operational Direction from January 05-23, 2025, with some highlights of events in Toretsk and a quick update on developments in Pokrovsk and Velya Novosilka. #ChasivYar #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: Despite recent achievements, the Chasiv Yar Operational Direction has produced minimal progress for the SVRF since the capture of Bakhmut. While under significant pressure, OTU Luhansk(?) still effectively prevents OSV Yug from advancing towards Kostyantynivka, which poses a risk to the defense of OSUV Khortytsia in central Donetsk Oblast. The Siverskyi-Donets Canal continues to act as a significant barrier hindering Russian movements, potentially enhanced by ongoing construction of field fortifications in successive lines to the west of the canal and north of Toretsk. However, since late December 2024, the 98th Guards Airborne Division has achieved notable progress along critical sections of the Siverskyi-Donets Canal and within Chasiv Yar.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1064: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction from January 05-22, 2025. #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Andriivka #Vremivka
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: The Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction situation continues deteriorating for OSUV Tavriva. Efforts by OTU Krasnohorivka throughout late December 2024 and early January 2025 failed to hold the defensive line in Kurakhove and along the Sukhi Yaly River Valley. The 29th Guards Combined Arms Army has secured the banks of the Sukhi Yaly River from Uspenivka to the southern approaches of Ulakly.
With the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army seizing control of most of the T05-15 Road and pressuring Ukrainian defenses to the north, there is a real threat to OTU Krasnohorivka ability to break contact and execute an orderly delayed withdrawal along the H-15 Highway and reestablishing a coherent defense within the Andriivka-Oleksiivka fortified conglomerate.