1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 7: A week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided a wealth of information as to the nature of major state-on-state war in the 21st Century. I will explore these more in-depth soon. #UkraineRussianWar#UkraineWar
2/ What follows is a brief synopsis of today’s events and activities in the Ukrainian Theater of War. A thorough analysis of Russian and Ukrainian operational performance during this past first week of the war will be forth coming in the next 24-48 hours.
3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Western intelligence sources indicate that the Russians are reorienting themselves operationally for a slower attritional campaign as opposed to continuing a horribly planned and executed attempt at large-scale 6th Gen Warfare.
4/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. It is hard to look past the spectacular stories emerging on various social media platforms of the poor state of Russian units, especially in the northern theater. Units surrendering, vehicles abandoned, confused leadership.
5/ Nevertheless, to understand what has happened, and where things might be headed, we need to look past these incidents, numerous and telling as they might be, to see how the Russians are, or are not, adapting. This is needs to be the same for the Ukrainian military.
6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. This area remains the most worrisome for both Russia and Ukraine. Both have made important gains here. The ability of either side to achieve their objectives here may become the hinge on which victory turns.
7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. It is becoming clear that the focus of in the south for Russia will be Odesa. Capturing this port will severely impact the ability of the West to provide lethal and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
8/ Aerospace Operation Assessment. As mentioned, I will provide a more in-depth review of the first week soon. But the key take away is that Ukrainian airspace remains contested. Ukrainian air defense remains active and effective, especially short-range air defenses.
9/ In my week one overview I will discuss why I think Russia’s attempt at 6th Generation Warfare in the opening days of the war failed, how the Ukrainian military is outperforming its own capabilities, and the likely direction of future operations.
10/ I want to state that if I have misspelled any Ukrainian names / words or used a Russian spelling in place of a Ukrainian one, that I am sorry of this oversight. I fully intend to use Ukrainian spelling / verbiage and not Russian.
11/ That is it for this update. There is more to come. I am going through a lot of data and what to be sure I provide the most accurate information that is available, so you are as informed as much as possible to the situation on the ground.
12/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
13/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
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1/ Election Day in the United States is finally here. The Presidential Race between Republican Candidate, Former President Donald Trump, and Democratic Candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has been polarizing, to say the least, with anxiety running high for not only Americans but people around the world, on its outcome. Ukrainians likely have the highest amount of anxiety over the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election, as the winner will almost certainly set the war on a trajectory that will either enable a Ukrainian victory or a capitulation. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #USAElection2024 #HarrisWalz2024 #TrumpVance2024 #PresidentialElections
2/ According to a Bipartisan Policy Center report, an estimated 244 million Americans are eligible to vote. The 2022 mid-term elections saw 161.42 million Americans registered to vote. However, the turnout saw roughly 75 million people vote, or 46.6% of the electorate. By comparison, approximately 158.4 million Americans voted in the 2020 Presidential Election out of 240 million eligible voters (168.3 million registered), a turnout of 66%. According to the New York Times, 78 million Americans have already cast their votes through early voting. Suppose the 2024 election cycle sees at least the same percentages of the electorate participate. In that case, at least 161.04 million people will cast ballots for the 2024 Presidential Election, with possibly roughly 48% of those votes already having been cast through early voting.
3/ Polls across the United States generally open between 0500-0600 locally, with polls closing between 1900-2000 locally. The first polls will close on the eastern seaboard of the United States at 2000 EST (0100 GMT). It will take several hours for the first returns to come in, but all eyes will be on the turnout in the 7-battleground states in this election: Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona (though some elections models have the state leaning Republican in the final days of the Presidential Race), Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
1/ Ukrainian TVD Daily Tactical Update (DTU) (Day 983): Since Sept 17, the situation in the Ukrainian TVD has deteriorated for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). As of 04 November 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) retain the strategic initiative and have improved positive operational momentum in the Donbas, specifically throughout the southern Donetsk Oblast. This thread provides a general overview of events since mid-September. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #Vuhledar #Kurakhove
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Northern Strategic Direction: The Northern Strategic Direction (SD) is now the TVDs secondary SD. There is remote potential for ZSU operations in this SD to shift the strategic initiative in Ukraine’s favor. Despite some tactical and operational success in Kursk, the Government of Ukraine failed to achieve its principal strategic goal, to compel the United States to lift restrictions on the use of long-range strike weapons on targets within the Russian Federation. The ZSU remains faced with the dilemma of either continuing to reinforce efforts in Kursk or transition to the defensive and shore up the operational deterioration of OSUV Tavriya’s strategic flank in southern Donetsk Oblast. The decision on where to place its operational focus during the winter of 2024-25 will impact the strategic trajectory of the war.
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 935: As of 16 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces conducting a counterattack in the Korenevo area. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 2GCAA have slowed their advance on Pokrovsk for logistical resupply, with the 201MRD attacking through the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, elements of OSV Tsentr and Vostok have renewed offensive action in the Vuhledar area, pressing hard for Bohoiavlenka. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU continues large drone strikes targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineWarNews #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Russia
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 921: As of 02 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces attempting to push Ukrainian troops from Korenevo. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 90GTD, 27GMRD, and 201MRD carry on their advance towards Pokrovsk, with the 201MRD now threatening the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, OSV Vostok appears to be preparing for offensive action in the Vuhledararea. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU conducted a large drone strike targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Russia
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Russian forces press their attack in the Kreminna area. Svatove has been reinforced by the 98th GABD, signaling a Russian intent to push toward Kupyansk soon. UKR forces will continue to defend in depth & transition to the offense when opportunities arise. #Luhansk