1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 7: A week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided a wealth of information as to the nature of major state-on-state war in the 21st Century. I will explore these more in-depth soon. #UkraineRussianWar#UkraineWar
2/ What follows is a brief synopsis of today’s events and activities in the Ukrainian Theater of War. A thorough analysis of Russian and Ukrainian operational performance during this past first week of the war will be forth coming in the next 24-48 hours.
3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Western intelligence sources indicate that the Russians are reorienting themselves operationally for a slower attritional campaign as opposed to continuing a horribly planned and executed attempt at large-scale 6th Gen Warfare.
4/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. It is hard to look past the spectacular stories emerging on various social media platforms of the poor state of Russian units, especially in the northern theater. Units surrendering, vehicles abandoned, confused leadership.
5/ Nevertheless, to understand what has happened, and where things might be headed, we need to look past these incidents, numerous and telling as they might be, to see how the Russians are, or are not, adapting. This is needs to be the same for the Ukrainian military.
6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. This area remains the most worrisome for both Russia and Ukraine. Both have made important gains here. The ability of either side to achieve their objectives here may become the hinge on which victory turns.
7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. It is becoming clear that the focus of in the south for Russia will be Odesa. Capturing this port will severely impact the ability of the West to provide lethal and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
8/ Aerospace Operation Assessment. As mentioned, I will provide a more in-depth review of the first week soon. But the key take away is that Ukrainian airspace remains contested. Ukrainian air defense remains active and effective, especially short-range air defenses.
9/ In my week one overview I will discuss why I think Russia’s attempt at 6th Generation Warfare in the opening days of the war failed, how the Ukrainian military is outperforming its own capabilities, and the likely direction of future operations.
10/ I want to state that if I have misspelled any Ukrainian names / words or used a Russian spelling in place of a Ukrainian one, that I am sorry of this oversight. I fully intend to use Ukrainian spelling / verbiage and not Russian.
11/ That is it for this update. There is more to come. I am going through a lot of data and what to be sure I provide the most accurate information that is available, so you are as informed as much as possible to the situation on the ground.
12/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
13/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
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1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Russian forces press their attack in the Kreminna area. Svatove has been reinforced by the 98th GABD, signaling a Russian intent to push toward Kupyansk soon. UKR forces will continue to defend in depth & transition to the offense when opportunities arise. #Luhansk
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Svatove remains a critical pivot of operations for both sides. Action over the past week did not see major changes to the line of contact north of Novovodyane. To the south the Russians launched a sustained offensive out of Kreminna towards Yampolivka. #Luhansk
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions.
3/ Luhansk OD. This OD remains an important disruption zone for Russian & Ukrainian forces. For the ZSU, the Luhansk OD still presents the best opportunity for victory in the Donbas. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to liberate Svatove. #Luhansk
1/ UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22. The past 48 hrs continues to see ZSU forces exploiting their breakout from the T2110 Hwy line between Balakliya & Semenivka. The resulting advance has caused the defeat of the SVRF in Kharkiv.
2/ The successful liberation of Kupyansk by ZSU forces on 10 September provided the necessary pivot of operations to turn the weak left flank of OGORF-V and attack to seize the decisive geographic points of Velyki Burluk & Vovchansk on 11 September 2022.
3/ The defeats in Kharkiv & Izyum has forced the Russians to form a defensive line along the Oskil River. The ZSU has achieved a major political objective, the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. pointhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569243133925367809?s=20&t=dtlIhdkgAeudyYrl2G2Qvw
1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive#UkraineWillWin
2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.
3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.