1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 7: A week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided a wealth of information as to the nature of major state-on-state war in the 21st Century. I will explore these more in-depth soon. #UkraineRussianWar#UkraineWar
2/ What follows is a brief synopsis of today’s events and activities in the Ukrainian Theater of War. A thorough analysis of Russian and Ukrainian operational performance during this past first week of the war will be forth coming in the next 24-48 hours.
3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Western intelligence sources indicate that the Russians are reorienting themselves operationally for a slower attritional campaign as opposed to continuing a horribly planned and executed attempt at large-scale 6th Gen Warfare.
4/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. It is hard to look past the spectacular stories emerging on various social media platforms of the poor state of Russian units, especially in the northern theater. Units surrendering, vehicles abandoned, confused leadership.
5/ Nevertheless, to understand what has happened, and where things might be headed, we need to look past these incidents, numerous and telling as they might be, to see how the Russians are, or are not, adapting. This is needs to be the same for the Ukrainian military.
6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. This area remains the most worrisome for both Russia and Ukraine. Both have made important gains here. The ability of either side to achieve their objectives here may become the hinge on which victory turns.
7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. It is becoming clear that the focus of in the south for Russia will be Odesa. Capturing this port will severely impact the ability of the West to provide lethal and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
8/ Aerospace Operation Assessment. As mentioned, I will provide a more in-depth review of the first week soon. But the key take away is that Ukrainian airspace remains contested. Ukrainian air defense remains active and effective, especially short-range air defenses.
9/ In my week one overview I will discuss why I think Russia’s attempt at 6th Generation Warfare in the opening days of the war failed, how the Ukrainian military is outperforming its own capabilities, and the likely direction of future operations.
10/ I want to state that if I have misspelled any Ukrainian names / words or used a Russian spelling in place of a Ukrainian one, that I am sorry of this oversight. I fully intend to use Ukrainian spelling / verbiage and not Russian.
11/ That is it for this update. There is more to come. I am going through a lot of data and what to be sure I provide the most accurate information that is available, so you are as informed as much as possible to the situation on the ground.
12/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
13/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
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1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics
2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:
1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement. 2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations. 3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks. 4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.
On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.
Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverek
2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
3/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: The Donetsk Oblast serves as the critical front for the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF). The primary focus of OUGRV-Ukraine operations is the capture of southern Donetsk Oblast, which will facilitate advances into the less fortified areas of western and central Donetsk.
In the OSV Yug Area of Responsibility, the 3d Guards Combined Arms Army has made minor advancements in the Siversk region. In the Chasiv Yar area, VDV and Spetsnaz units have achieved significant tactical control over the northern and central sections of the town. The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army has established control over most of Toretsk. Yet, Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the northern and northwest outskirts of the city. While OSVs Tsentr and Vostok are making daily advancements in southern Donetsk, OUV Donetsk is successfully conducting delaying operations despite intense pressure.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: The Siversk OD is not only militarily sensitive for Russia and Ukraine but also politically, especially for Russia. Since the fall of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna, Siversk has been a key operational hub. It occupies a crucial position within the OSUV Khortytsia area of responsibility. It acts as a coordination center between OTU Lyman and OTU Luhansk to defend the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk urban conglomerate, a critical strategic point in the Donbas SD. Additionally, it serves as the entry point into northern Donetsk Oblast.
Little has changed in the Siversk OD for almost two and a half years. It is a principal source of Russian military frustration, exemplifying the inadequacies of the Russian Armed Forces in achieving a decisive victory over Ukraine and the Ukrainian ability to hold their territory and outfight the Russians.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: Major Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Grouping of Forces (OSUV) Khortytsia, stated that the Russians are trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the western side, looking for vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defenses to capture the city. Tregubov also suggested that the Russians would not try to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region but concentrate on capturing Pokrovsk city. The major stated that the Russians maintain their daily average of 50-60 combat actions along this sector of the front.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1067: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kupyansk Operational Direction from January 5-25, 2025, with some highlights of events in other parts of the TVD. #Kupyansk #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: The 1st Guards Tank Army continues its well-coordinated multi-division offensive along a line of operations at the junction of the OTU Kupyansk and OTU Staroblisk areas of responsibility. The assault by the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division into northern Kupyansk and Dvorichna during late 2024 and early 2025 has revealed vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses in this segment of the front to infiltration. The expanding Dvorichna Bridgehead presents a substantial challenge for ZSU forces. Should the Russians succeed in capturing Dvorichna and extend their lines south towards Radkivka and Holubivka, the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division would establish a new avenue of advance to possibly encircle Kupyansk from the north.